Here is a detailed look at the rookies relevant to fantasy baseball in 2016:
The Holdovers
A player from the previous season retains his rookie status if:
- He did not surpass 130 at-bats in the majors
- He did not surpass 50 innings pitched
- He didn't spend more than 45 days on the 25-man roster
With these conditions in mind, there are several familiar names from 2015 that will pop up as rookies once again in 2016.
The most prominent holdovers are Twins OF Byron Buxton, Mets LHP Steven Matz, Dodgers SS Corey Seager and Rangers OF Joey Gallo. The first three are already slotted into the roles they occupied in September last season.
Buxton is penciled in as Minnesota's leadoff man. He has an incredible speed tool that should translate to steal opportunities; he swiped 55 bases in A-ball in 2013. A more seasoned approach at the plate will pay major dividends for his batting average and run totals, making him a potential multi-category stud.
Matz dazzled in six regular-season starts for the Mets, striking out close to a batter per inning and posting a 2.27 ERA. He projects to have an ERA north of 3.00 over a longer season. Given the Mets' pitching depth, if Matz's back injury flares up as it did in 2015, they won't hesitate to put him on the DL.
Seager didn't make his debut until September, but he wowed in 113 plate appearances, hitting .337 with a .425 OBP, 17 runs, four home runs, 17 RBIs and a pair of steals. He won't hit that well when every MLB staff has a full scouting report on him, but at a position where young talent is scarce, Seager has major breakout potential hitting in the middle of the Dodgers' lineup.
Gallo has a chance to break from Spring Training with the team depending on the health and effectiveness of OF Josh Hamilton. The team will likely opt to keep their hard-swinging rookie in Triple-A to start the season to delay his eventual free-agency - just like the rookies in the next category.
Mid-Season Call-Ups
Like Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber last year, there are players that could begin the season in the minors but make an immediate impact as soon as they make it to the show.
Along with Gallo, Nationals RHP Lucas Giolito (MLB.com's 3rd-ranked prospect), Pirates RHP Tyler Glasnow (10th), Nationals SS Trea Turner (11th), and Twins RHP Jose Berrios (19th) could all make an impact on teams in the playoff chase as midseason call-ups.
Giolito made it as high as Double-A in 2015 after nearly 70 innings of lights-out pitching in A-ball, where he posted a 2.71 ERA with well over a strikeout per inning. Assuming he has a good spring, he will probably start 2016 at Double-A but on the fast-track to Triple-A. The Nats' rotation is set, but Giolito could force his way to the majors sooner rather than later.
Pittsburgh has made it clear it does not believe Glasnow will make the team for Opening Day, citing a need for more seasoning at Triple-A. Ryan Vogelsong will hold down the fifth spot in the rotation for now, though the Pirates may need Glasnow as they chase a fourth straight playoff trip.
Turner has a realistic shot of sticking with Washington. The Nats fell apart in the second half of 2015 and could use an upgrade at SS over the light-hitting Danny Espinosa. Turner has 30-steal potential over a full season.
The Twins can't get Berrios to the majors quickly enough. The youth movement in Minnesota is underway and the righty would be a welcome addition to a team that fell just four wins short of the wild card game. He has the highest upside of any MLB-ready pitcher in the organization.
The Boys of September
Teams that are far from contention are unlikely to rush the promotion of their elite prospects; every major league at-bat or inning pitched increases a player's MLB service time, bringing them closer to arbitration and free agency.
Teams like the Phillies, Braves, Athletics, Brewers, Reds and Rockies will probably keep their best prospects in the minors until September, when the rosters expand to 40 players. A late-season call-up could make an impact in the fantasy playoffs, so be sure to pay attention to the minor leagues in August to check on baseball's rising stars.
