40 Facts That Will Help You Win Your Fantasy Baseball League
Seeking out fantasy baseball glory? Here are 40 facts that will aid you in your quest for the championship:
1. Los Angeles Angels OF Mike Trout stole just two bases in the second half last season, and has seen his steal totals (and overall speed rating) dip in three straight seasons. Forget his proclamation that he'll aim to ramp up the stolen bases this season: If you're drafting him expecting 20+ steals, you're going to be disappointed.
2. Speaking of muted steal totals, Houston Astros SS Carlos Correa swiped just nine second-half bases with a 69% success rate, compared to 19 steals and a 94% proficiency prior to the All-Star break. His batting average also slid, from .303 in the first half to .265 after the break. He'll be good this season, but isn't worth a top-6 pick.
3. Detroit Tigers 1B Miguel Cabrera had a miserable second half in 2015, hitting just three homers in 152 at-bats. Before you put him on your "Do Not Draft" list, consider that his second-half fly-ball rate (29%) and HR/FB clip (8%) were clearly aberrations. He should bounce back nicely in the power department while still providing a sensational batting average.
4. Chicago Cubs 3B Kris Bryant was lucky to post a .276 BA as a rookie; his xBA was a dismal .233, fueled by a dreadful 64% contact rate. He's a terrific source of power and run production, but don't be surprised to see his BA crater in his second full season. He's a risky proposition in the middle of the second round, and should probably be going a round or two later.
5. No pitcher in baseball had a better combination of first-pitch strikes and swinging strikes than Max Scherzer. The Washington Nationals ace ranked first in F-Strike rate (71.3%) and second in S-Strike rate (15.3%), the two biggest contributors to high strikeout totals. Both totals were well above his previous three-year average, but he has the tools to sustain them.
6. Few regulars saw the kind of bump in contact rate that Astros OF George Springer had in 2015; he enjoyed a 10-percent increase to 72% in his first full major-league season. That bodes well for the young slugger, who is a good bet to join the 20-20 plateau. His power waned in the second half of last season, but he hits the ball hard enough to rebound.
7. For Miami Marlins ace Jose Fernandez, there's no place like home. The 23-year-old has literally been invincible in South Florida, going 17-0 with a 1.40 ERA in 26 career home starts. Compare that to a 5-9, 3.78 stat line in 21 road starts, and Fernandez presents an intriguing career trend. You aren't benching him away from Miami, but his road struggles are worth considering.
8. Those waiting for the bottom to fall out on Seattle Mariners OF Nelson Cruz's fantasy value may not have to wait much longer. Cruz mashed 44 homers last season, but did so on the strength of an absurd 30% HR/FB ratio; his FB% plummeted significantly, as did his contact rate. If those two trends continue, normalization will make Cruz a high-round bust.
9. Chicago Cubs C/LF Kyle Schwarber has been a trendy pick as the No. 2 catcher option in mixed and NL-only leagues - but owners beware. Schwarber posted a .481 OPS against left-handers, suggesting he may eventually wind up in a platoon situation. That at-bats limit, coupled with a poor contact rate and lower spot in the batting order, could mean a sophomore slump.
10. Anyone down on Justin Upton's mediocre 2015 results should consider a significant outlier: his performance vs. LHP. Upton posted an ugly .558 OBP against lefties with the Padres, a whopping 328 points below his career average. Expect a significant bounce-back in his first season with the Tigers, which should make him one of the top 15 outfielders in fantasy.
11. Should you trust Kansas City Royals OF Lorenzo Cain's power burst from a season ago? Yes. Cain made better contact than he had in his career, while increasing his FB% by five points - all while maintaining his speed and stolen base rates. He also hit better than .300 for the second season in a row. Cain is going later than he should; don't be afraid to reach in the fourth round.
12. Boston Red Sox SS Xander Bogaerts upped his batting average by an absurd 80 points in 2015 - and owners should be skeptical of a repeat. Bogaerts' xBA was 51 points lower than his BA, thanks to a 37% hit rate - well above the 30% he posted in 2015. Bogaerts makes enough contact to post a solid BA, but don't be surprised if he fails to hit .300 this season.
13. Seattle Mariners 3B Kyle Seager has hit between .259 and .268 in each of his four full major-league seasons - but with a career-best xBA of .281 in 2015, a higher average could be on the way. Seager increased his contact rate to a career-high 84% last season, buoyed by an .835 OPS against lefties. If he can maintain that success, he should post an average north of .280 this year.
14. Cleveland Indians SP Danny Salazar is on the fast track to fantasy stardom - and all it took was a little control. Salazar trimmed his BB/9 from 3.3 in 2015 to 2.6 last season, while his K/9 rate dipped only slightly. He also generated far more ground balls than in his previous season. If you're looking for a second-tier ace, Salazar is your guy.
15. Ignore David Ortiz at your peril. Even though the Boston Red Sox slugger is only eligible as a DH in the majority of fantasy leagues, he does more than enough with the bat to warrant a top-90 selection. He has maintained a contact rate above 80% even into his 40s, while a FB rate above 40 percent will ensure yet another 30-homer season. Don't let him slip too far.
16. While a handful of elite closers will garner more attention on draft day, no one should be surprised to see Baltimore Orioles lefty Zach Britton end up the best of the bunch. Britton posted an unheard-of 79% GB rate last season, a major reason he held opponents to a .552 OPS. He also saw his K/9 rate shoot up from 7.3 to 10.8. You won't do much better for your No. 1 closer.
17. If you're looking at selecting St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha, beware the possibility of late-season fatigue. Wacha boasted a 2.88 ERA through August, but a significant September meltdown bumped that number up by a half-point. Walks were his major issue in the second half, and owners should heed last season's late collapse.
18. Much has been made of Cincinnati Reds OF Billy Hamilton's inability to get on base, and how that has hampered what could be other-worldly stolen base numbers. The good news: Hamilton is expected to lead off this season; in 757 ABs as the Reds' No. 1 hitter, Hamilton has 84 steals. If he can improve on his .291 OBP in that spot, he's a great bet for 65+ swipes in 2016.
19. Chicago White Sox OF Adam Eaton is a near-lock for 100+ runs if healthy - but it's the other counting stats that make him an intriguing pick. Eaton had nine home runs and 13 steals in the second half last season, thanks largely to vast improvements against lefties (.773 second-half OPS). If that success continues, he should reach double-digit homers and steals yet again.
20. The Tigers are expecting big things from SP Justin Verlander - and he showed last season he can still deliver. Verlander posted a 2.68 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in the second half last season, fueled by 4.6 K/BB ratio and F-Strike/S-Strike rates that closely resembled his high-K seasons of 2011-12. He isn't a lock for 200 Ks anymore, but he's still a terrific fantasy SP3.
21. Tampa Bay Rays OF Corey Dickerson has taken a major hit in fantasy drafts after being traded away from the friendly confines of Colorado's Coors Field. But Dickerson is no slouch; he registered a 30% line-drive rate last season and mashes righties with regularity. His numbers away from Coors are cause for concern, but he'll hit cleanup in a solid Rays lineup. He's legit.
22. Looking for some mid-draft OF value? Take a flier on Texas Rangers veteran Shin-Soo Choo, who had a sensational second half last season thanks in large part to a vastly improved batting eye. He was fortunate to post a 40% hit rate, but even with modest regression in that area, he's a great bet to bat .275 or better with 20 home runs and a little speed to boot.
23. Consider Marlins righty A.J. Ramos near the top of the second tier of mixed-league closers. Not only does Ramos boast impressive peripherals - including a sizzling 17% S-Strike rate in 2015 - but his top competition for the role, Carter Capps, is out for the season with an arm injury. Miami should be competitive this season, providing Ramos with plenty of save chances.
24. He doesn't do any single thing very well, but Cubs second baseman Ben Zobrist is enough of a multi-category threat to warrant a mid-round pick. Zobrist combined an 88% contact rate with a 12% walk rate last season, making him a great play in OBP leagues with room to grow in both categories. He's no longer a 20-homer, 20-steal threat, but he's solid all-around.
25. As a late power source, New York Mets 1B Lucas Duda is a terrific option. And it might get even better for owners of the 30-year-old; his .878 OBP against lefties last year was easily the best of his career. Not only does an improved showing versus southpaws keep him in the lineup, it also offers the promise of a higher BA - something that has eluded Duda in the majors.
26. Oakland Athletics C/1B Stephen Vogt was a waiver-wire darling for the first half of last season, but a litany of injuries limited him to a .220/.281/.360 slash line after the break. Expect some regression in his primary counting stats, and know that he'll be an injury risk every year he catches. Vogt should be good for 12-15 homers, however, which does provide value at his position.
27. The trends aren't positive for Minnesota Twins closer Glen Perkins. His F-Strike and S-Strike rates have both fallen two straight years, while his xERA has climbed in tandem. K rate is way down, too, from 11.1 in 2013 to 8.5 last season. His 20% HR/FB rate in the second half of last season represents another reason to worry. His hold on the job is tenuous; look elsewhere.
28. The hype has slowed on Los Angeles Dodgers OF Joc Pederson, and with good reason: only a 15% walk rate salvaged an otherwise dismal second half in which he batted .180 with six homers in 206 at-bats. He doesn't have a high enough contact rate to hope for a batting average north of .240, and the speed he showed in the minors didn't make it to LA. Avoid him.
29. New York Yankees 2B/SS Starlin Castro regressed in his final season with the Cubs thanks to an alarming 54% GB rate. That negated any power he showed in prior seasons, though his 39/22/39 GB/LD/FB rate in September and October produced five homers and 21 RBIs in 27 games. Simply put: if he stops hitting the ball on the ground, he could be in for a big rebound season.
30. Forget the home ballpark: Oakland OF Khris Davis is going to mash. Davis hit 22 second-half home runs with Milwaukee in 2015, thanks mostly to an unsustainable 35% HR/FB rate. But he's well over 20% for his career, and with a boost in his overall FB rate - combined with a long-awaited full-time role in a major-league lineup - he'll be a lock for 30 home runs.
31. A declining contact rate and an alarmingly low FB rate contributed to a down season for Orioles C Matt Wieters, who looked mortal in his return from Tommy John surgery. But the contact improved in the second half, and his batting average climbed nearly 40 points as a result. Now at full health and playing for a contract, Wieters is in prime position to rebound.
32. Make no mistake: Rangers OF Delino DeShields is going to run. DeShields stole 25 bases as a rookie, and would have made out even better were it not for a pedestrian 67% success rate in the second half. He was given the green light with regularity last season, and boasts solid walk and hit rates that should put him on base enough to flirt with 35+ steals.
33. Banking on big value from Arizona Diamondbacks SS Jean Segura? Don't. Segura may be tabbed as the D-Backs' leadoff hitter, but a declining BA and xBA, a dismal two percent BB rate in 2015 and dwindling speed numbers spell doom for his fantasy owners. Don't be surprised to see him moved out of the No. 1 spot at some point, which would kill his value entirely.
34. Considering a different leadoff batter? Try Rays multi-positional darling Logan Forsythe, who will begin the season as Tampa's No. 1 hitter. He's coming off a career year in which his contact and hit rates jumped while the majority of his other key stats held steady. xBA suggests some BA regression is coming, but he can play 1B and 2B and should score plenty of runs.
35. Toronto Blue Jays SP Marco Estrada could be headed for a major fall. Estrada was sensational in the second half of last season, but outpitched his FIP by a whopping 1.27 runs on the season while seeing his F-Strike and S-Strike rates both drip. His HR/FB rate of 8.7% was a total fluke given his 32/16/52 GB/LD/FB ratios. Don't let recency bias fool you. Stay away.
36. Tigers 1B/DH Victor Martinez has gone largely ignored in the middle rounds of mixed-league drafts, but is trending toward a bounce-back season. His contact rate remains impressive even at age 37, and he made up for a poor second-half hit rate with a 9% HR/FB ratio and much harder contact overall. He may only have one good season left, but he's worth a late flier.
37. Rays starter Matt Moore was once a fantasy gem - and there are signs that he may be worth a late-round shot this season. Moore struggled for much of last season in his return from Tommy John surgery, but posted 2.3 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 rates over his final five starts. Add in a solid spring showing, and Moore warrants consideration in the later rounds of mixed leagues.
38. Mariners 1B Adam Lind may go undrafted in shallower mixed leagues, but he's an excellent bench option - provided that Seattle platoons him. Lind's 80% contact rate in 2015 is excellent for a power bat, as is his 12% walk rate. He'll struggle to hit 20 homers with Safeco Field as his home park, and he's still dreadful vs. LHP - but he's a worthwhile play against righties all season.
39. Milwaukee OF Domingo Santana has been a trendy pick at the back end of larger mixed leagues or NL-only formats, but there are major warning signs. His contact rate is in the low-60s, while his walk rate took a major tumble in the second half of 2015. He also outperformed his xBA by a significant margin, hinting at BA regression. He has power, but red flags, too.
40. Never heard of Astros 1B Tyler White? You'd better read up: the slick-hitting rookie has earned the starting job heading into the regular season, and makes for a terrific waiver-wire claim or late-round pick in AL-only leagues. White has a career .311/.422/.489 slash line in 294 minor-league games; while the power isn't quite there, he could be an instant contributor in OBP leagues.