Fantasy Faceoff: Max Scherzer vs. Jake Arrieta
The 2015 Washington Nationals were a disappointment, while the Chicago Cubs finished ahead of schedule with a playoff series win before bowing out in the NLCS. Whatever success the Nationals had came from the bat of Bryce Harper and the hand of Max Scherzer.
Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta proved that not only was he going to be a good pitcher, but that he would be an ace going forward. His second half won him the NL Cy Young award and will go down as one of the best stretches of his era.
And yet Scherzer is ranked slightly higher than Arrieta in fantasy. Scherzer is typically the second pitcher off the board after Clayton Kershaw, while Arrieta is going a round later in standard mixed leagues. Regardless, both were incredible in 2015 and are understandably drawing attention early in drafts.
| Name | IP | W | K | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scherzer | 228.2 | 14 | 276 | 2.79 | 0.92 |
| Arrieta | 229.0 | 22 | 236 | 1.77 | 0.86 |
The Case for Scherzer
It's all about the strikeouts. Scherzer had a K/9 of 10.9 to go along with a career-low 1.3 BB/9. He struck out 8.12 batters to every one he walked.
Like Arrieta, Scherzer made the move from the AL to the NL, but while his numbers improved, the changes weren't as dramatic. Scherzer has pitched at least 170 innings for seven consecutive seasons and has never had an ERA north of 4.43. His lowest K/9 was 8.0 in 2011. He's been doing it a lot longer than Arrieta.
His innings have gradually increased over the last four seasons, and he threw not one, but two (!) no-hitters in 2015. The Nationals should be better in 2016, too, which could boost Scherzer's win totals.
The Case for Arrieta
His 2015 was spectacular. After July, the Cubs didn't lose a single game he started and Arrieta allowed more than a single earned run only once over those 12 starts - and just four earned runs in total. His 1.90 ERA from July seems poor by comparison.
The Cubs didn't coddle him, either. He threw 100-plus pitches in 10 of the 12 starts and never pitched fewer than six innings. He's durable.
Arrieta's improvement aligns precisely with his move from the American League to the National League. In 2013, he had a 7.23 ERA in five games for the Orioles before posting a 3.66 ERA in nine starts for the Cubs. Scherzer has abnormal strike out rates, but Arrieta had a 9.3 K/9 in 2015, so he's no slouch, either.
Consistency vs. Explosiveness
Yes, Scherzer's strikeout totals are through the roof and he has been one of the top fantasy pitchers for a longer time. He's a proven talent. Arrieta has only once started more than 25 games in a season - in 2015 - and eclipsed 200 innings - also in 2015.
While Scherzer's strikeout rate is higher, Arrieta has posted a better hit ratio for each of the last three seasons. In 2015, Arrieta allowed 5.9 hits per nine innings, while Scherzer allowed a full hit more at 6.9.
Scherzer was more prone to poor games in 2015 as well. He allowed four or more earned runs in 10 of his 33 starts compared to Arrieta doing the same only four times in as many starts. Arrieta never allowed more than three ER in a game after June 16.
Verdict
Scherzer may have slightly higher strikeout potential, but Arrieta's ADP is low enough that you can snag him in the second round or early third, while Scherzer goes late in the first or early in the second. There will be Arrieta supporters who take him ahead of Scherzer, but for the most part he's going later.
Arrieta is a couple of years younger and while he hasn't been as consistent for as long as Scherzer, he no longer plays in the AL where his struggles occurred. Both are durable and both play for teams projected to be near the top of their respective divisions, meaning both should provide your fantasy teams with wins.
Scherzer will win the strikeout race, but Arrieta has been as good or better in WHIP and ERA, which will both come in handy. Neither is a poor choice, but Arrieta was a model of consistency in 2015 and should be again in 2016.