Fantasy Faceoff: Chris Sale vs. Madison Bumgarner
They're two of fantasy baseball's top starting pitchers - but they go about it in completely different ways.
Chicago White Sox ace Chris Sale is an imposing figure at 6-foot-6, whipping his left arm toward the plate with such torque, you wonder if the limb is going to come flying off at some point. Contrast that with San Francisco Giants star Madison Bumgarner, a fellow southpaw whose easy delivery makes it look like he's playing catch in the park.
Both are sensational fantasy options in all formats - but who's the better play in 2016? Here's a look at the cases for both:
The Case for Chris Sale
Sale is a great bet to finish among the top three starters in strikeouts - and that's a significant feather in a pitcher's cap for fantasy purposes. The 26-year-old is in the prime of his career, and is coming off a season in which he led the American League in whiffs (274) and Fielding Independent Pitching (2.73) despite going just 13-11 with a modest 3.41 ERA.
Expect a bounce back from Sale, who may not post the 2.17 ERA he had in 2014, but is certainly better than he showed from an ERA standpoint last season. Factor in what looks like a much improved White Sox lineup, and Sale should be a good bet to return to the 15-win plateau for the first time since he racked up 17 victories back in 2012.
The Case for Madison Bumgarner
Consistency has been a hallmark of Bumgarner's major-league career - particularly over the past three seasons, during which Bumgarner has kept his ERA below 3.00 while upping his strikeout rate to a career-best 9.6 in 2015. He led the majors in complete games with four, and walked just 39 batters over a career-high 218 1/3 innings.
Bumgarner may not reach 250+ strikeouts, but he's a much safer bet for a sub-3.00 ERA. And with the Giants' offense coming into the season at full health, Bumgarner looks like a solid bet to at least approach the 18 victories he has had each of the past two seasons. When it comes to pitchers who go early in drafts, that kind of upside is hard to resist.
Key Stat
Of the seven pitchers to register 250+ strikeouts from 2006-2014, just two of them exceeded the mark again the following season.
Verdict
You're drafting Sale with the hope that you're getting 30+ starts, 250+ strikeouts and a bounce-back in the ERA and win columns - and the chances of all four of those things happening are remote.
Sale could very well exceed his 2015 marks - but the risk attached, coupled with his sky-high ADP, makes him a significant boom-or-bust play. Bumgarner has a track record, both in terms of health and success. He's the better option on draft day.