Fantasy Fail: 5 Players Due to Regress

Here's a list of five players who excelled in 2015, but are prime targets for major regression:

2B Dee Gordon, Miami Marlins

2015 saw Gordon establish career highs in hits, batting average, OBP, RBI and even HR. He tied his career high in doubles with 24 and swiped 58 bases - six fewer than in 2014.

The speed will be there, but he also got caught stealing 20 times. At the plate, he was fairly lucky, with his .383 BABIP being the highest of his career. In 2014, it was only .346. Gordon swung the bat more, or at least made more contact, and the ball was landing in the right places. If this shoots down a bit, it should result in fewer steals and runs.

Barring an injury, Gordon won't be a fantasy bust, but he's the second 2B coming off the board in many drafts. It is a thin position, but you'll have to reach for him in the second round when you could be going after a top slugger or pitcher.

SP Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks

Just don't rush for this top pitcher. Greinke was impossibly good in 2015. His three seasons with the Dodgers were all quite wonderful, but this was something else.

The best trend here is the shrinking walks as his innings increased. His command has improved, and it helped him notch a career best 0.844 WHIP. He hovered around the same ground ball percentage, but hitters just weren't finding holes. Batters had an absurdly low .229 BABIP against him. His lowest prior to that was .276 in 2013.

It should be a slightly rude awakening for Greinke owners expecting him to replicate his 2015. You can find better value at SP - Corey Kluber and Stephen Strasburg are going a round later.

1B/OF Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles

Last season, Davis was a draft bargain because of his abominable 2014, in which he hit .196. He still clubbed 26 dingers that year, but fantasy owners were expecting mid-30s at the lowest. With 47 round trippers in 2015, it was a resurgence.

A hitter like Davis will always be prone to streaks. He strikes out about 30 percent of the time. Hurting him in 2014 - in addition to his strikeout rate - was his reduced BABIP (.242) and ISO (.209). He raised both of these stats in 2015 to .319 and .300, respectively.

Maybe 2014 was the anomaly and Davis is simply a late bloomer who never lived up to lofty minor league expectations. Or, maybe Davis is an erratic bat who could just as easily bust in a given year. He's more valuable in DFS than season-long fantasy because of his boom-or-bust potential. If he drops to the fifth or sixth round, he might be worth a flier in 10-team mixed leagues.

1B Kendrys Morales, Kansas City Royals

Morales was awful in 2014, hitting .218 with eight home runs and 42 RBIs in a meager 98 games. He followed that up with a 22-homer, 106-RBI year with the Royals in 2015 en route to being one of the best value pickups in fantasy.

He also hit .290. And like the aforementioned Gordon, he featured a much higher BABIP than the year before, and a fair sight higher than his career averages.

It's tricky, because his career trends suggest that injuries may have been the sole reason 2014 was such a dud. His 2012 BABIP is closer to his 2013 and 2015 marks, while 2014 was far and away his most disappointing season.

As undervalued as he was in 2015, he will probably go far earlier in drafts. Don't expect a .300 batting average or 100 RBI. He may still be productive, but there are far better options even in the middle rounds of mixed league drafts where he is projected to go.

SP John Lackey, Chicago Cubs

Lackey was a nice surprise in St. Louis in 2015. He pitched 218 innings, the highest since he threw 224 in 2007 for the Angels. He had a 2.77 ERA, the lowest of his career. He had the highest strand rate of his career at 82.6%. It was among his best seasons.

It's not happening again in 2016. Considering his K/9 and BB/9 ratios were almost identical to 2014, and actually worse than in 2013, Lackey got lucky.

Lackey was a top-25 SP in 2015. Do not draft him as such in 2016. Playing half of his games at Wrigley Field will work against him, as it allowed 52 more HR than St. Louis' Busch Stadium in 2015.