Fantasy Faceoff: Lorenzo Cain vs. Adam Jones

Lorenzo Cain established himself as a league-wide name thanks to numerous career highs en route to a World Series victory in 2015. Last season's productivity has many excited about what he can do in 2016, and his fantasy value reflects that via a big leap up draft boards.

Jones has been an established bat in Baltimore for more than five years. He has at least 25 homers in every season since 2011 and has the likes of Manny Machado, Chris Davis, and Mark Trumbo batting around him. Despite turning 30 and recent signs of regression, Jones is still an appealing fantasy option.

Comparatively, Cain bested Jones in 2015 by dominating in runs, steals, and batting average. The chart below shows their 2015 numbers:

However, this 3-2 split may only be a one-off due to Cain's career year in 2015 and Jones' stability at the plate. Aside from 2015, Cain hasn't been able to match Jones' year-to-year production, so fantasy players should consider each player's complete resume before deciding.

With these points in mind, who should you take if posed with the question: Cain or Jones?

The Case for Lorenzo Cain

Statistically, Cain's well-rounded production is his biggest asset. Though Cain's 2015 season was spectacular, it is fair to assume that the stolen bases, RBIs and average should remain healthy even with some regression. Cain's biggest jumps in 2015 came in home runs (+11 from 2014) and runs (+46 from 2014) - both quite significant.

While those two categories should drop in 2016, the other three still buoy his fantasy value. Even with some regression, Cain will contribute in all five categories and help boost the floor of any fantasy team across the board. Robust production like this is rare.

Health-wise, both Cain and Jones have injury concerns, but it seems Cain also takes the edge here. Late in 2015, Jones suffered from back issues that held him out for much of September. At 30 years old, the phrase "back spasms" should be frightening to Jones and fantasy players alike.

Cain may not have a big advantage here, but going into 2016, he does have a clean bill of health, while Jones may have to deal with those lingering back issues.

The Case for Adam Jones

Everyone loves the long ball and Jones should easily provide 25 or more of them this year. Compared to Cain, Jones is projected to hit almost 20 more homers; that should allow him to post solid runs scored and RBI totals, as well, after he saw a modest dip in both statistics last season.

If Jones can rediscover some of his magic from 2012-13, 30 home runs and 90+ RBIs are not out of the question - and those benchmarks would put him well ahead of Cain.

The second advantage for Jones: career production. Between the two, Jones represents the safer bet to return value, having produced strong fantasy numbers dating back to 2009. Along with consistent home run power, Jones has also batted in and scored 80 or more runs every year since 2011. If healthy, that streak should extend another season.

Regression for Both?

A career year at 30 is a rare happening in baseball, and it has many questioning Cain going into 2016. It seems a near-lock that Cain won't repeat his 2015, but the question is how far can he fall? Cain's career highs prior to 2015 are listed below and expose just how spectacular last season was.

Admittedly, Cain only has three seasons of over 100 games played, so some production is left off the board there. However, a dramatic increase like last year's seems unsustainable and more in line with the term "career year". If you are targeting Cain, you should know that Steamer projections have him at 11 homers (-5 from 2015), 67 runs (-34), and 64 RBIs (-8).

Like Cain, Jones is also susceptible to regression and has already shown signs of dwindling performance. Below are Jones' numbers since 2013:

Jones has been trending down across the board the past two years. These figures may not inspire confidence in Jones going forward, but his 2015 totals are serviceable.

Ultimately, it seems fair to assume that neither candidate will match 2015's production. Under this condition, fantasy players should think about whether they desire the established performer or prefer to reach for a high-ceiling option.

Verdict

With a proven track record and the unlikely chance Cain produces another season resembling the success of 2015, Jones is the safest option to return value. Despite the injury factor and fading power, Jones can still match Cain's projected 2016, and his career numbers prove he can do even better.