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Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: Tampa Bay Rays

Kim Klement / USA TODAY Sports

Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the Tampa Bay Rays (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborskis; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):

Hitters

C Hank Conger

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 24 50 7 26 0
Steamer 21 42 6 21 2
Zeile 27 54 8 28 1

Conger is a veteran catcher who posted a career-high 11 home runs and 33 RBIs last season with the Astros. His modest numbers limit his fantasy value and he has no place in mixed leagues or most AL-only formats.

1B James Loney

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 40 127 7 48 3
Steamer 31 80 5 31 2
Zeile 40 110 6 41 2

Loney finished with four home runs over 388 plate appearances during an injury-shortened 2015 campaign. He's known as a defense-first player and his projected counting stats are quite weak for a first baseman. He presents no value in fantasy baseball and should be left alone.

2B Logan Forsythe

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 50 101 11 44 7
Steamer 63 130 13 59 7
Zeile 67 135 15 61 7

Forsythe's .804 OPS quietly led the Rays last season, but he was widely undervalued by most fantasy owners - and continues to be in 2016, with an ADP near the 18th round. An uptick in HRs and RBIs along with double-digit stolen bases can be expected this season. Batting in the fifth spot adds to his value as a superb buy-low candidate.

3B Evan Longoria

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 75 146 22 77 3
Steamer 74 150 24 84 3
Zeile 77 152 23 79 3

The perennial run producer of the Rays continues to attract fantasy owners, and with good reason. Longoria has gone under 20 homers and 70 RBIs just once throughout his career, in an injury-plagued 2012 season. Be confident drafting him in the 10th-to-11th round of mixed-league drafts and as early as the fifth round of AL-only leagues.

SS Brad Miller

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 62 121 13 54 10
Steamer 51 105 11 51 9
Zeile 49 101 11 45 9

Miller was acquired from the Mariners after batting .258 with a career-high 14 stolen bases in 2015. He will get around 450 plate appearances for Tampa Bay this year, but is curr and will be available in the later rounds of all formats if you need help at the SS position.

LF Corey Dickerson

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 48 102 17 47 5
Steamer 51 108 15 56 5
Zeile 59 121 18 62 4

Dickerson's injury-impacted 2015 numbers project out similar to his previous year statistics (24 HR, 76 RBIs). Those numbers are expected to take a small dip in Tampa Bay, but he owns a career .300 average and is an excellent gap hitter with speed. He's likely to spend some time as a DH, so you can draft him in rounds 9-11 with confidence.

CF Kevin Kiermaier

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 60 128 10 44 15
Steamer 60 138 11 59 16
Zeile 63 135 12 55 16

Unless your fantasy league counts defensive statistics, Kiermaier has little-to-no fantasy value. The league's premier outfield defender will get plenty of at-bats; with his speed, he may spend some time at the top of the Rays' order. If you need runs or stolen bases in the later rounds of your draft, he's your guy.

RF Steven Souza Jr.

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 54 86 15 43 14
Steamer 59 109 19 57 15
Zeile 69 112 21 59 17

Souza Jr. hit 10 homers from Opening Day to May 31 last season, becoming a stellar waiver-wire addition. But injuries and ineffectiveness hampered him the rest of the way. An increase in production could be in the cards if he emerges as the starter; the Rays want to develop him into an everyday starter. He'll be available in the later rounds of all draft formats.

DH Logan Morrison

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 48 96 13 50 6
Steamer 50 97 15 52 6
Zeile 47 95 15 49 6

Morrison has only reached the 20-homer plateau once, hitting 23 with Miami in 2013. The left-handed batter has struggled to stay in the lineup since then due to injuries and struggles at the plate. He should be left undrafted.

Starters

RHP Chris Archer

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 33 195.3 202 66 3.23
Steamer 32 198 207 63 3.23
Ziele 32 199 211 63 3.31

Archer has all the flash you want in a fantasy ace. He posted the second-most strikeouts in the MLB last year with 252, and had a sizzling 10.7 K/9 rate. Archer won't be on the board long, so nab him before the end of the fourth round in mixed leagues or someone else will.

RHP Jake Odorizzi

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 31 177.3 165 51 3.60
Steamer 30 183 166 55 3.65
Ziele 30 185 170 56 3.70

Can this be the year the former first-rounder turns his low-90s fastball into wins and strikeouts? Odorizzi posted a career-best 3.35 ERA in 168 innings in 2015; with added run support this season, the wins will come. Owners will draft him in the 10th-12th round of mixed-leagues and he will be one of the early second-tier pitchers off the board in AL-only drafts.

LHP Drew Smyly

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 22 118.7 121 33 3.64
Steamer 28 160 155 50 3.32
Ziele 28 160 159 47 3.32

Smyly's 2015 campaign was riddled with injuries, but he showed promise heading into 2016. Though owners may pass on him in the mid-rounds because of previous injury concerns, his 3.11 ERA in 12 starts can't be ignored. He should be drafted as a middle-to-late-round draft pick in all formats.

LHP Matt Moore

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 21 109 103 48 4.46
Steamer 21 118 105 44 3.78
Ziele 23 128 117 48 4.05

Moore returned from Tommy John surgery in 2015 and struggled in the early going, which led to a demotion to Triple-A Durham. He returned to Tampa Bay late in the season, winning four of six starts with a 2.97 ERA. Draft him from the 17th-20th round of mixed-leagues and in the middle rounds of AL-only drafts.

RHP Erasmo Ramirez

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 25 148 111 43 4.20
Steamer 24 135 103 39 3.96
Ziele 26 151 119 44 3.99

Ramirez was traded to the Rays from the Mariners just before the start of the 2015 season and posted 11 wins with a 3.75 ERA and 126 strikeouts over 27 starts. But what stood out was his 1.13 WHIP - a better mark than both Archer and Odorizzi registered. He can be drafted in the later rounds of all formats.

Closer

RHP Brad Boxberger

SOURCE G IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 67 69 90 30 3.26
Steamer 65 65 75 26 3.14
Ziele 62 60 75 26 3.31

The good about Boxberger: he lead the AL in saves last season with 41. The bad: he posted a 3.71 ERA and blew six saves while registering an abysmal 1.37 WHIP. He recently underwent core muscle surgery and will be out until mid-May, paving the way for Danny Farquhar to take over the closer role in the interim. Nonetheless, the closing job is his when he returns and can be drafted as a late round IR-stash.

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