How to Manage Your Fantasy Baseball Prospect Pool
When it comes to dynasty formats, prospect capital is nearly as important as the players you have on your active roster.
In a standard 10- or 12-team re-draft league, prospects are thought of more as lottery tickets, and are often reserved for the final three rounds. You don't gain anything unless they make the big club at some point during the season, and they often end up back on the waiver pile when injuries or other fantasy roster calamities strike over the course of the season.
Prospect value changes measurably in 16-, 18- or 20-team leagues, when the 20-year-old tearing up Triple-A pitching is more likely to earn and hold a roster spot ahead of anyone available on a paper-thin waiver wire.
Yet, it's in dynasty formats where prospects are mined and cultivated with the same diligence provided to the rest of the draft pool - and that's the league format this post will focus on, though some of its principles may apply to other league types.
Do The Most Homework
If you're going to have the strongest prospect pool, you'll need to know more about those players than anyone else. That means scouring the Internet for whatever information you can find on them; don't simply rely on one source, either. Seek out the most reputable sites, and explore them all.
Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus are two of the top sites when it comes to up-to-the-minute updates on the top prospects in the game. Not only do they offer evaluations of hundreds of players, they also provide a decent idea of when certain players are expected to reach the big leagues.
That last point is especially significant, since a prospect's value is largely tied to his path to the majors. A player like Philadelphia Phillies stud J.P. Crawford is more valuable to the majority of fantasy players than someone like Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Anthony Alford, who is considerably further away.
Reach for the Stars
Owners that can identify good young talent have a huge advantage in dynasty leagues - and they aren't afraid to reach for said talent if need be. A dynasty format rewards those bold enough to take Trea Turner two or three rounds ahead of where others might snag him - even if he doesn't pan out right away.
The trick is to balance assets that can help you win in 2016 with those that may not reach full value this year, but are terrific bets to do so in 2017 and beyond. Even if you're playing for the championship, you'll need sufficient prospects to use as trade bait, or as future assets if you're out of the running.
When deciding in the later rounds between the veteran with the strong track record and the unproven young player toiling in the minors, consider which one provides more overall value - not only this season, but in the future. If you've done your homework, the answer to that question should be clear.
Buy Yourself a Title ...
Once you've built your team, you'll need to assess how competitive you are - and ultimately decide whether you're making a run for the championship, or building for next year. And if you put your eggs in the 2015 basket, you'll be glad you collected all those prospects at the draft.
You should be willing to shop any and all of your prospects except for those that are already making significant contributions to your fantasy team - and even then, you may want to consider fielding offers. Byron Buxton is a terrific player, but if you can trade him straight up for Chris Sale, you do it.
While it may be difficult to part with elite prospect capital, it's sometimes a necessary sacrifice to make in the quest for a fantasy championship. Just make sure you maximize the return in all cases; there's nothing worse in dynasty than not getting suitable value back for your top young players.
... Or (Much) Better Luck Next Year
Conversely, if 2016 just isn't your year, it's time to use your top players as currency with the goal of amassing as many prospects as possible. And if you're especially bad this season, you actually have an advantage in that you can get started on your rebuilding plan early.
Being the first team eliminated from title contention gives you first pick of the prospect pools of teams in the hunt for the championship. Finding a willing trade partner shouldn't be difficult once the top teams have broken free of the rest of the pack, so target those owners as quickly as possible.
If you're willing to part with significant value, you'll be rewarded with your pick of the best prospects available on contending teams' rosters. And who wouldn't want to go into a 2017 dynasty league with players like Jose Berrios or Max Kepler on their team? Be aggressive, and it will pay off.