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Team-by-Team Fantasy Projections: Cincinnati Reds

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Here are the 2016 MLB fantasy projections for the Cincinnati Reds (ZiPS projections courtesy Dan Szymborski; Steamer projections courtesy Jared Cross, Dash Davidson and Peter Rosenbloom; Zeile projections courtesy FantasyPros):

Hitters

C Devin Mesoraco

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 26 52 9 30 1
Steamer 45 91 16 52 3
Zeile 35 70 12 41 2

Will Mesoraco rebound into the top-10 catcher he appeared to be before injuries ate away his 2015? Projections are all over the place. He should provide Joey Votto with protection, and he did hit 25 home runs in 2014. A similar outcome is not unreasonable if he can stay on the field.

1B Joey Votto

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 73 130 19 63 7
Steamer 84 141 21 73 7
Zeile 92 151 23 76 7

Votto has more real-world value than fantasy value, unless your league counts OBP. He hit above expectations in 2015, though he's projected to regress with the Reds in offensive limbo. He should still be the best hitter on the team, but his counting stats will be limited considering the question marks dotting the rest of the lineup.

2B Brandon Phillips

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 61 140 11 66 11
Steamer 56 138 12 56 10
Zeile 61 148 11 61 14

Phillips seemed like he would be on another roster by now, but figures to start the season somewhere in the top half of the lineup, which should result in a decent number of chances. Second base is still a thin position in fantasy, and Phillips should return solid value, especially in NL-only leagues.

3B Eugenio Suarez

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 68 140 18 65 8
Steamer 49 113 14 54 7
Zeile 55 119 14 56 6

Suarez showed decent power and contact in nearly 400 plate appearances a year ago. The hope is this develops into consistent production over a full season as the starting third baseman. He only hit four home runs the year before, and there's concern that 2015's power might have been a mirage. Playing half his games at Great American Ball Park won't hurt, though.

SS Zack Cozart

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 49 97 9 42 4
Steamer 43 108 10 46 5
Zeile 49 108 10 47 6

Cozart has never been more than an injury replacement in mixed leagues, and even in NL-only formats you can probably do better. That said, he hit nine home runs in only 214 plate appearances in 2015. If he bats near the top of the Reds' lineup, his value will see an uptick.

LF Adam Duvall

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 68 119 26 73 3
Steamer 43 87 20 55 2
Zeile 25 51 11 29 3

There is a difference of opinion regarding Duvall's production. His home run totals range between 11 and 26, meaning some experts believe he'll be the every day left fielder while others feel he'll be used in a platoon with Scott Schebler. The platoon would severely limit his value in all leagues. As it is, he's a late-round depth flier in NL-only leagues.

CF Billy Hamilton

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 70 127 5 42 62
Steamer 63 131 7 43 59
Zeile 64 121 5 40 60

Do you like stolen bases and not much else? Hamilton is your man. He doesn't strike out that often, but he also never walks. He doesn't hit for a high average, so he has drifted to the bottom half of an already weak lineup. If he can get on base more often, those SB projections will be on the low side.

RF Jay Bruce

SOURCE R H HR RBI SB
ZiPS 76 132 25 88 9
Steamer 64 122 24 74 8
Zeile 72 126 24 78 9

Like Phillips, trade rumors have swirled around Bruce - making his place in the lineup tenuous at best. He's only two years removed from three consecutive 30-HR seasons. He hits better than his last two seasons would indicate, but that could simply mean he's on a steep decline. These projections seem to suggest that he could go either way, making him a risky draft choice.

Starters

RHP Homer Bailey

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 23 149 130 42 3.93
Steamer 21 125 100 36 3.92
Zeile 21 75 61 22 3.94

A former top prospect, Bailey is set to throw off a mound soon as he returns from Tommy John surgery, hence the limited innings and starts in his projections. He might be a year away from pitching a full slate of 30-plus starts, which limits his mixed-league value. His former role as a front of the rotation arm might make him worth a late-round flier. Temper your expectations, though.

RHP Anthony DeSclafani

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 29 178 146 51 3.79
Steamer 31 188 154 54 4.02
Zeile 31 190 159 56 4.00

With the Reds projected to lose a lot of games, their starting pitchers have less appeal than they might on winning clubs. DeSclafani has some nice peripherals, including a 7.36 K/9 last year. His 2.68 BB/9 was higher than his low-minors numbers, but actually improved on his Triple-A results in 2014. He likely won't be drafted in mixed-leagues.

RHP Raisel Iglesias

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 24 133 127 36 3.79
Steamer 29 175 171 54 3.57
Zeile 29 177 177 53 3.62

Iglesias is likely the Reds starting pitcher to garner the most attention. He has electric stuff and posted a 9.82 K/9 in 95.1 innings in 2015. Again, the wins probably won't be there - he went 3-7 last season - but he could make serious strides in WHIP and ERA while striking out everyone in sight.

LHP John Lamb

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 28 149.3 163 57 3.92
Steamer 23 126 121 47 3.81
Zeile 23 124 122 46 4.39

Lamb featured a solid K/9 in 2015 (10.51), but his 49.2 innings is too small a sample size to accurately assess his performance. The K potential will make him an interesting target in keeper leagues or NL-only drafts, though being a waiver add is more likely. He's recovering from a back injury, which could keep him out until mid-April. Look for Jon Moscot to take his place initially.

RHP Alfredo Simon

SOURCE GS IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 26 155.7 90 51 4.91
Steamer 19 115 82 38 4.28
Zeile 17 111 74 36 4.57

Back with the Reds, Simon adds depth and not a whole lot else. He should have more value than he did with Detroit and with Lamb and Bailey nursing injuries, he should have his spot locked in for the time being.

Closer

RHP J.J. Hoover

SOURCE IP K BB ERA
ZiPS 63.3 64 29 3.84
Steamer 65 63 28 3.82
Zeile 61 60 28 3.62

Hoover will likely start the year as the ninth-inning man in Cincinnati, replacing departed closer Aroldis Chapman. He doesn't have as electric an arsenal as Chapman, but he does hold a career 9.1 K/9. If he can get the walks under control, he will have a chance to return value.

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