Fantasy Faceoff: Josh Donaldson vs. Nolan Arenado
Only Yankee Stadium and Oriole Park saw more balls fly over its fences in 2015 than the Rogers Centre in Toronto and Coors Field in Denver. It was a dead heat for third, as 203 dingers were swatted at Rogers compared to 202 at Coors.
The Blue Jays' Josh Donaldson and the Rockies' Nolan Arenado led third basemen in home runs, swatting 83 between them. Both players are expected to be selected in the first round of standard, mixed-league drafts. But which one should you take?
Both players demolished career highs in 2015 and will be highly coveted at a position that drops off quickly in talent. A look at last season's stats shall begin the tale of the tape.
| NAME | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donaldson | 122 | 41 | 123 | 6 | .297 |
| Arenado | 97 | 42 | 130 | 2 | .287 |
The Case for Donaldson
He's the reigning MVP, and was the best hitter on a team with Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki. He hit for power and average and had remarkably strong splits. While he hit .299 against lefties - the Jays as a team killed left-handed pitching - he also managed to hit .296 against righties over 503 at-bats.
The move to Toronto from Oakland didn't hurt. His power numbers were already trending upwards after hitting 24 home runs in 2013 followed by 29 in 2014. O.co Coliseum didn't provide an insane challenge, though, as he hit 24 of those 53 home runs in Oakland. He hit that many at Rogers Centre in 2015.
The Case for Arenado
For the same reasons Larry Walker has been ignored as a legitimate Hall of Famer, Arenado was left out of the MVP race in 2015. He tied Bryce Harper with 42 home runs to lead the NL. He also led the majors with 130 RBI, while finishing within the top 20 in runs scored.
Must be the Coors Field factor, right? Not so fast. While Arenado did hit for a much better average at home - .316 to .258 - he actually managed to hit more home runs away from Denver. The difference was largely negligible, but goes to show that Arenado is someone worth paying attention to regardless of where he plays.
Supporting Players
Donaldson scored more runs than anyone else in the majors. This was because he had Bautista and Encarnacion batting behind him in the lineup on a daily basis.
Past them, depending on where Donaldson hits in the lineup, he'll have runners to drive in and hitters to drive him in, with Tulowitzki, Chris Colabello and Russell Martin there as well.
Arenado has a pretty good assortment of talent around him, too, with Carlos Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu and Charlie Blackmon featuring in the lineup. Hitting cleanup will give him plenty of RBI opportunities, and the pitcher spot won't impact his production much, if at all. Whoever scores the most runs between the two will determine who's the most valuable to fantasy owners.
Verdict
With Donaldson hitting second in Toronto's lineup and Arenado hitting fourth for the Rockies, Arenado is in a slightly better position to drive in runs. The bottom of Toronto's batting order doesn't project to have a high OBP, so Donaldson's chances to rack up the RBIs will be relatively limited.
A year from now, Arenado could overtake Donaldson, but if you are in a position in the first round to take a third baseman, it has to be Donaldson. The runs he'll score pushes him over the top because the other counting stats should be so close.