MLB Mock Draft 2015: Predictions and slot values for every 1st-round pick

by
Taylor Baucom / Major League Baseball / Getty

This year's draft is all about shortstops, big college arms, and the Houston Astros. What else is new?

The Astros, picking second and fifth, hold the highest two selections for any team since 2011, while the Arizona Diamondbacks will kickstart the draft for the first time since making Justin Upton the top overall player in 2005.

The Atlanta Braves also select twice in the first round (14, 28) and will do so a league-high 13 times through the first 315 picks of the draft.

Our mock, which features the first 26 picks and 10 compensation slots, is a product of industry buzz, prospect analysis, and general consensus from three of the most prominent talent evaluators in the country: ESPN's Keith Law, Baseball America's John Manuel, and FanGraphs' Kiley McDaniel.

Major League Baseball's First-Year Player Draft (Monday, June 8, 7 p.m. ET) is an especially tough one to predict, with signing bonuses and slot value allotment playing a critical role in determining player selection. Those figures, courtesy of Baseball America, are listed below for each slot, with the club's spending cap for the first 315 picks included in parenthesis.

1. Arizona Diamondbacks - Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt
Slot Value: $8,616,900 ($12,816,100)

Swanson's the safe pick and the top position player in the college class. He projects as an above-average shortstop in the majors with 80-grade makeup.

2. Houston Astros - Alex Bregman, SS, LSU (Compensation for Brady Aiken)
Slot Value: $7,420,100 ($17,289,200)

Bregman's bat is his meal ticket, though he's not a lock to stay at short. His signability should appeal to the Astros, who would be happy to put the Aiken fiasco behind them.

3. Colorado Rockies - Brendan Rodgers, SS, Lake Mary HS (Fla.)
Slot Value: $6,223,300 ($13,989,800)

A potential No. 1 pick, Rodgers might have the highest ceiling of any player in the draft. It would be a surprise if he fell to the Texas Rangers.

4. Texas Rangers - Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois
Slot Value: $5,026,500 ($9,099,900)

Top college lefty in the class and potentially this year's Brandon Finnegan.

5. Houston Astros - Kyle Tucker, OF, Plant High School (Tampa)
Slot Value: $4,188,700 ($17,289,200)

It's fair to assume the Astros will take at least one prep player with one of their top picks, and who better at five than Preston's younger – and scouts say better – brother, Kyle.

6. Minnesota Twins - Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Slot Value: $3,889,500 ($7,388,700)

The hard-throwing junior out of Santa Barbara gets high grades for his big-time fastball and above-average slider.

7. Boston Red Sox - Andrew Benintendi, OF, Arkansas
Slot Value: $3,590,400 ($6,223,800)

Two-way player with the potential to stick in center field. Benintendi led the SEC in OBP, slugging, and home runs in 2014.

8. Chicago White Sox - Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt
Slot Value: $3,470,600 ($5,347,500)

The White Sox are said to be keen on drafting another college pitcher early and word is Vanderbilt teammates Fulmer and Walker Buehler are among the most likely candidates.

9. Chicago Cubs - Daz Cameron, OF, Eagle's Landing Christian HS (Ga.)
Slot Value: $3,351,000 ($7,236,100)

The son of former major leaguer Mike Cameron isn't as physically impressive as his father, but Daz's all-around skill set would be a great match for the high-octane Cubs.

10. Philadelphia Phillies - Tyler Stephenson, C, Kennesaw Mountain HS (Ga.)
Slot Value: $3,231,300 ($7,058,500)

Huge power with a hulking 6-foot-4, 210-pound frame. Stephenson's the best catcher in the draft, leading some to speculate he'll go as high as No. 1 overall.

11. Cincinnati Reds - Garrett Whitley, OF, Niskayuna HS (N.Y.)
Slot Value: $3,141,600 ($7,234,200)

The Reds already have one toolsy center fielder with plus speed and above-average defense, so why not make it two? Whitley's power upside makes him an especially intriguing option at the position.

12. Miami Marlins - Trenton Clark, OF, Richland HS (Texas)
Slot Value: $3,051,800 ($6,766,400)

Clark doesn't project as strongly as Whitley does in center, but his bat makes for a solid second option once the former's off the board.

13. Tampa Bay Rays - Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Cincinnati
Slot Value: $2,962,100 ($6,591,300)

A switch-hitting infielder with pop and speed, scouts believe Happ could eventually end up in the outfield, and he's got the bat to do it.

14. Atlanta Braves - Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt
Slot Value: $2,842,400 ($10,684,100)

There are concerns over Buehler's lanky frame, but not his stuff. The right-hander features a mid-90s fastball with an arsenal four pitches deep.

15. Milwaukee Brewers - Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri State
Slot Value: $2,692,700 ($7,743,800)

Harris is another big right-handed college arm with solid secondary stuff and plenty of room still to fill out (6-foot-4, 190 pounds).

16. New York Yankees - Chris Betts, C, Wilson HS (Calif.)
Slot Value: $2,543,300 ($7,885,000)

Power-first catcher with a more advanced hit tool than Stephenson. Some evaluators compare him to current Yankees catcher Brian McCann.

17. Cleveland Indians - Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona
Slot Value: $2,393,600 ($7,234,200)

Among the more polarizing prospects in the draft, Law ranks him his second-best prospect while MLB.com lists him just inside their top 30. There's debate regarding whether he'll stay at short, but there's no disagreeing on his ability to hit.

18. San Francisco Giants - Mike Nikorak, RHP, Stroudsburg HS (Pa.)
Slot Value: $2,333,800 ($7,515,500)

The former all-conference quarterback throws an effortless mid- to high-90s fastball and is among the more projectable arms in the class.

19. Pittsburgh Pirates - Kolby Allard, LHP, San Clemente HS (Calif.)
Slot Value: $2,273,800 ($7,392,200)

Allard's considered by many to be this year's top lefty prep pitcher, and could emerge as a value pick if a recent stress fracture in his back causes his stock to tumble on draft day.

20. Oakland Athletics - Phil Bickford, RHP, Southern Nevada
Slot Value: $2,214,000 ($5,444,100)

Explosive fastball and a major league ready frame. Good fit for an Athletics club trying to rebuild its farm system quickly.

21. Kansas City Royals - Cornelius Randolph, SS, Griffin HS (Ga.)
Slot Value: $2,184,200 ($7,206,700)

Randolph shows great power for a left-handed hitting middle infielder, though he'll likely wind up a third baseman in the majors.

22. Detroit Tigers - Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville
Slot Value: $2,154,200 ($7,114,300)

Funkhouser offers good value as a late first-round pick given his experience, durability, and big-league ready body.

23. St. Louis Cardinals - James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA
Slot Value: $2,124,400 ($7,387,600)

Projects as a mid-rotation arm with a very good changeup. Scouts like his "pitchability."

24. Los Angeles Dodgers - Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Academy (Fla.)
Slot Value: $2,094,400 ($7,781,700)

The Dodgers have the resources and patience to gamble on Aiken, who became just the third No. 1 pick to not sign when he turned down a $5-million bonus to play for the Astros. Whoever drafts him won't see him pitch again until next summer, at the earliest, after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March.

25. Baltimore Orioles - D.J. Stewart, OF, Florida State
Slot Value: $2,064,500 ($6,850,400)

The burly 6-foot, 230-pound junior was named the Atlantic Coast Conference Player of the Year in 2014 after posting a robust .351/.472/.557 slash line.

26. Los Angeles Angels - Blake Trahan, SS, Louisiana-Lafayette
Slot Value: $2,034,500 ($5,050,100)

Trahan's a popular pick to go to the Angels, who are believed to covet his range at short and plus speed on the basepaths.

Compensation picks: The following 10 teams will receive first-round compensation as a result of extending qualifying offers to 2014 free agents who signed with another club. Table includes the projected pick and respective slot value.

No. TEAM Slot Value Pick Pos. Compensation
27 COL $2.00M Michael Matuella (Duke) RHP Michael Cuddyer
28 ATL $1.97M Ashe Russell (HS) RHP Ervin Santana
29 TOR $1.94M Richie Martin (Florida) SS Melky Cabrera
30 NYY $1.91M Donnie Dewees (North Florida) OF David Robertson
31 SF $1.88M Nolan Watson (HS) RHP Pablo Sandoval
32 PIT $1.85M Donny Everett (HS) RHP Russell Martin
33 KC $1.82M Nate Kirby (Virginia) LHP James Shields
34 DET $1.79M Nick Plummer (HS) OF Max Scherzer
35 LAD $1.76M Cody Ponce (Cal Poly-Pomona) RHP Hanley Ramirez
36 BAL $1.71M Jacob Nix (IMG Academy) RHP Nelson Cruz

The San Diego Padres (51st), New York Mets (53rd), Washington Nationals (58th), and Seattle Mariners (60th) are the only teams without a first-round pick.

The Digest

Complete guide for the 2015 MLB Draft

by theScore staff
Ron Antonelli / Major League Baseball / Getty

Day 1 of the 2015 MLB Draft is complete and theScore had you covered with all the picks from the first round.

Related: MLB Draft Tracker from Day 1 with all picks from the first two rounds

2015 first round selections

Pick No. Team Selection
1 ARI SS Dansby Swanson (Vanderbilt)
2 HOU* SS Alex Bregman (LSU)
3 COL SS Brendan Rodgers (Lake Mary HS - FLA)
4 TEX RHP Dillon Tate (UC Santa Barbara)
5 HOU OF Kyle Tucker (Plant HS - Tampa)
6 MIN LHP Tyler Jay (Illinois)
7 BOS OF Andrew Benintendi (Arkansas)
8 CWS RHP Carson Fulmer (Vanderbilt)
9 CHC OF Ian Happ (Cincinnati)
10 PHI SS Cornelius Randolph (Griffin HS - GA)
11 CIN C Tyler Stephenson (Kennesaw Mountain HS - GA)
12 MIA 1B Josh Naylor (St. Joan of Arc Catholic HS - Mississauga - ON)
13 TB OF Garrett Whitley (Niskayuna HS - NY)
14 ATL LHP Kolby Allard (San Clemente HS - California)
15 MIL OF Trenton Clark (Richland HS - North Richland Hills - TX)
16 NYY RHP James Kaprielian (UCLA)
17 CLE LHP Brady Aiken (IMG Academy)
18 SF RHP Phil Bickford (Southern Nevada)
19 PIT SS Kevin Newman (Arizona)
20 OAK SS Richie Martin (Florida)
21 KC RHP Ashe Russell (Cathedral Catholic HS - Indianapolis)
22 DET RHP Beau Burrows (Weatherford HS - TX)
23 STL OF Nick Plummer (Brother Rice HS - MI)
24 LAD RHP Walker Buehler (Vanderbilt)
25 BAL OF D.J. Stewart (Florida State)
26 LAA C Taylor Ward (Fresno State - CA)

Related: On day of Correa's debut, Astros beef up farm system with trio of standout draft picks

*Compensation for not signing 2014 No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken.

Compensation Picks Team Selection
27 COL RHP Mike Nikorak (Stroudsburg HS - PA)
28 ATL RHP Mike Soroka (Bishop Carroll HS - Calgary - AB)
29 TOR RHP Jon Harris (Missouri State)
30 NYY SS Kyle Holder (San Diego)
31 SF 1B Chris Shaw (Boston College)
32 PIT 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes (Concordia Lutheran HS - TX)
33 KC RHP Nolan Watson (Lawrence North HS - IN)
34 DET OF Christin Stewart (Tennessee)
35 LAD RHP Kyle Funkhouser (Louisville)
36 BAL SS Ryan Mountcastle (Hagerty HS - FL)
Competitive Balance A Team Selection
37 HOU (via trade with MIA) OF Daz Cameron (Eagle's Landing Christian Academy - GA)
38 COL 3B Tyler Nevin (Poway HS - CA)
39 STL RHP Jake Woodford (H.B. Plant HS - FL)
40 MIL LHP Nathan Kirby (Virginia)
41 ATL (via trade with SD) 3B Austin Riley (DeSoto Central HS - MS)
42 CLE RHP Triston McKenzie (Royal Palm Beach HS - FL)

Further Reading

ESPN's Keith Law (Insider Only) has more on the Diamondbacks' selection of Dansby Swanson first overall.

Finally, we have an answer. After a spring of aggressive scouting by Diamondbacks general manager Dave Stewart and incessant discussion about potential money-saving moves, the Diamondbacks select Swanson with the first overall pick. Swanson represents the best combination of positional certainty and offensive impact among the shortstops at the top of the draft. He's going to get on base, swipe some bags and hit for power while playing solid defense at shortstop despite an average arm. He should move quickly, though don't be surprised if he swings and misses a bit.

Law also has more on the Rockies selection of shortstop Brendan Rodgers, who was his top player on the board.

The Rockies grab the top player on our board. Described by some, including our own Keith Law, as "Diet Tulo," Rodgers projects to stay at shortstop and hit for both average and power. He has the quickest wrists in the draft and wowed onlookers when he squared up a Justin Hooper 97 mph fastball and drove it to the warning track at a showcase at Petco Park last summer. He's old for the class but has done nothing but hit against the very best of his peers for several years. His detractors are concerned about his body filling out, forcing a move to third base, where he might not have enough power to profile as an impact regular. Colorado has picks at 27, 38 and 44 so they're not done, but they've already done well here.

Among the more surprising selections on Day 1 was Josh Naylor, a Canadian high-schooler selected 12th overall by the Marlins. Though he's lauded for his power and hitting ability, Naylor has a hefty build and might wind up a DH in professional baseball, according to Law:

It's first-round power for sure, and scouting director Stan Meek has always preferred players with size, but between the possible lack of a position and the work Naylor will have to do to stay in shape, there's a lot of risk here.

Teddy Cahill of Baseball America, meanwhile, offered some insight into the Indians' decision to take left-hander Brady Aiken with the 17th pick. Selected first overall in last year's draft, Aiken underwent Tommy John surgery in March, less than one year after contract negotiations with the Astros famously collapsed over concerns about his elbow.

Indians scouting director Brad Grant praised the Indians scouts for their work evaluating Aiken over the last two years. He declined to comment on the specifics of Aiken’s medical issues, saying only that the Indians did their due diligence and felt good about selecting him.

Grant said the Indians also liked Aiken’s intangibles.

"That’s one of the things that really stands out with Brady is his character and work ethic and his commitment to getting better," Grant said. "That’s something that definitely stood out in terms of his character and his willingness to return from here."

The Pirates earned praise from numerous talent evaluators for their efforts on Day 1, including Christopher Crawford of Baseball Prospectus, who raved about the club's selection of Arizona shortstop Kevin Newman at No. 19.

If Cleveland is the best drafting team in the American League, Pittsburgh would be my choice for best drafting team in the NL, and this was another great pick. Newman is a lock to stick at shortstop, and as seen in his back-to-back batting titles, he has a very advanced hit-tool—possibly even plus-plus. The power is a 30 right now on the 20-80 scale, but some adjustments with the lower half could see it tick up a grade. I thought he was a top-10 talent, and getting him at 19 is a fantastic result for the Pirates.

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