We've reached the NHL All-Star break, and some teams have completed as much as 61% of their schedules.
That means there's been more than enough games for the awards markets to take shape.
Let's take a closer look.
Nathan MacKinnon is seen as the favorite to win the Hart Trophy. He's just one point behind Nikita Kucherov for the league lead and ranks first among all players in five-on-five points. He's leading the charge for an Avalanche team that's as reliant as ever on its big guns; there isn't much depth behind them. MacKinnon is getting a ton of media support for the Hart right now. With Kucherov putting up points on a Lightning team on the playoff bubble, he's taken a backseat to MacKinnon - rightly or wrongly.
Whenever you see +450 attached to Connor McDavid's name, it's enticing, but he might have too much ground to make up. He started the season very slowly - like his team - and is nearly 20 points back of the top spot as a result. With the Oilers enjoying so much team success and taking pride in playing a more well-rounded, two-way game, I don't think McDavid will make up enough ground to catch MacKinnon.
David Pastrnak is a somewhat interesting dart throw at +1300. He's near the top of the league in goals and points, and the Bruins have one of the easiest remaining schedules. It's certainly possible he kicks things up another gear and closes the gap, which would garner him a lot of attention, given all the offseason departures in Boston. Someone is going to get real love for the team's success and ability to withstand so much turnover.
I think Connor Bedard is going to win the Calder, but I wouldn't be investing in his chances right now. He's missed quite a bit of time with a jaw injury, and a return is nowhere in sight. There's no sense in buying high on an injured player right now.
The odds for Brock Faber, Luke Hughes, and other top rookies are likely to shorten over the next month or so. They'll be playing, putting up points, and finding their way onto highlights while Bedard sits on his hands. That'll naturally lead to the gap shrinking. If you're concerned the Blackhawks will ease Bedard back into the lineup - or keep him out long term with nothing to play for - then the play would be to invest in another rookie. That's likely Faber, given the attention he's getting for his two-way game.
If you're confident Bedard will get back into the lineup somewhere near his projected return date, the best course of action is likely waiting closer to that point before making a play on Bedard. The price at that point should be better than it is now.
It sure feels like if Quinn Hughes stays healthy, this is his award to lose. He's the captain of a resurgent Canucks team that's put the whole league on notice. He plays a ton of minutes, is as puck-dominant as any player in the NHL, has gaudy point totals, and is plus-31 at five-on-five. The Canucks are steamrolling teams with Hughes on the ice, and he's getting a lot of praise for his work on the defensive side, which has been questioned in the past.
Cale Makar is spectacular, but he doesn't have the five-on-five results Hughes does, nor does he have the narrative train behind him.
Hughes has been a dominant force for a surprise team that was expected to compete for a wild-card spot. Makar has been a dominant force for a team expected to be elite. As a result, Makar's play isn't really a "story."
This is a two-horse race with a heavy lean toward Connor Hellebuyck. Rightfully so, in my opinion.
Hellebuyck owns a .924 save percentage and leads the league in goals saved above expected. He's been the best goalie in the NHL for a team that's extremely reliant on him being just that.
Sure, the Jets play a structured brand of hockey. They don't have superstars contending for awards up front, and they don't have many brand names on the backend. This is a team greater than the sum of its parts, and the play of Hellebuyck is a big reason why.
The Jets just put together one of the longest stretches of allowing three goals or fewer in NHL history. And Hellebuyck is going to get a ton of credit for that.
Unlike Thatcher Demko, Hellebuyck doesn't have players on the roster taking away some of the spotlight. He doesn't have an Elias Pettersson ripping it up at forward. He doesn't have a defenseman favored for the Norris, a la Quinn Hughes. He's doing it with the least amount of perceived help. If his level of play remains consistent, he'll likely be rewarded.
Beyond Demko, I don't think anybody can threaten Hellebuyck - even in the event of injury. Jeremy Swayman splits starts on an elite team, Adin Hill has played in 17 games, Cam Talbot has lost his job while the Kings tumble down the standings, Igor Shesterkin is struggling mightily, and Jacob Markstrom plays behind a non-playoff team selling its best players. Need I go on?
Even at -135, I think there's still some value in backing Hellebuyck.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.
