NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 13

Jared Silber / National Hockey League / Getty

The Rangers and Flyers meet Wednesday night, with each team playing the second game of a back-to-back. The Flyers will have played in Washington, while the Rangers will have hosted the Hurricanes. Although Philadelphia is the host, both teams will have an element of overnight travel going into the game. That should cancel out the marginal adjustment we make for teams playing back-to-back games.

The next variable we use to make our own moneylines is home-ice advantage. While we rely on a larger sample size to calculate that, let's take a glance at what each team has done at home versus on the road this season.

TEAM HOME ML ROAD ML HIA DIFFERENTIAL
Rangers 24-11 23-15 0.08
Flyers 13-24 10-25 0.07

Based on this season's results, the Rangers are 8% less likely to win a road game, while the Flyers are 7% more likely to win at home.

In a neutral situation, the Flyers' season-long metrics suggest they're closer to the Rangers than we'd think. However, we know better, having followed the two teams this campaign.

The Flyers have gotten progressively worse throughout the season, recording just four wins since dealing their captain, Claude Giroux. Between the pipes, Carter Hart (minus-1.5) and Martin Jones (minus-5.5) have been subpar in goals saved above average.

Conversely, the Rangers have ridden the back of Vezina-favorite Igor Shesterkin (35.5 GSAA) to a 34-14 moneyline record in his starts.

The key element in pricing this game relates to its back-to-back nature - but not due to rest. Instead, with the Rangers facing another playoff team in the Hurricanes on Tuesday night, they're likely to play Shesterkin at home and then go with backup goaltender Alexandar Georgiev (12-11 on the moneyline this season) in Philadelphia.

By the time moneyline prices open Tuesday night, we'll know who's in net for New York and have a better idea of how likely it is Philadelphia repeats what it managed to do April 3 - beat the Rangers.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 85% of our total rating. Basing 15% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Wednesday, April 13

GAME WIN PROB.(%) TRUE ML PRICE TO BET
MTL@CBJ 43.5/56.5 +130/-130 MTL +153/CBJ -125
NYR@PHI 52.7/47.3 -111/+111 NYR -107/PHI +131
SEA@WPG 39.5/60.5 +153/-153 SEA +181/WPG -147
LAK@COL 37.8/62.2 +165/-165 LAK +196/COL -158 

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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NHL daily betting guide: Opening moneyline projections for April 13
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