NHL Tuesday best bets: Back Senators vs. struggling Sabres
As fate would have it, however, I see the most value in games involving three of the league's bottom-eight teams.
Let's get into the best bets.
The Buffalo Sabres have won only three of the last 10 games and, honestly, I'm not sure that represents just how poorly they're playing right now.
Offensively, they're generating very little. They amassed only 13.05 expected goals and 160 scoring chances at five-on-five during this spell - no team has fared worse in either category.
Casey Mittelstadt is expected back tonight and should provide a boost, but the Sabres need a lot more than his presence to be competent in the offense.
They've struggled mightily without the puck, conceding more chances than all but two teams over the last 10.
Put it all together and their share of the chances sits at 38.83%, while they look even worse by expected goals (38.07%). Those are unfathomably bad numbers.
For perspective, the Ottawa Senators have won four of 10 while controlling 49.56% of the expected goals. They're playing much more competitive hockey.
With a big edge at five-on-five - and home ice in their back pocket - I like the Senators to pick up a win inside of 60 minutes.
Bet: Senators in regulation (-114)
High-scoring games follow the New Jersey Devils around. It doesn't matter how well they defend - their shot- and chance-suppression numbers are actually pretty good - because goaltending continues to be their undoing.
Ten of the Devils' last 15 games have featured at least six goals despite the team ranking 11th in expected goals against per 60 over that time.
Mackenzie Blackwood, now on injured reserve, has been one of the NHL's worst starters. He owns an .894 save percentage and has allowed almost half a goal above expectation per start. Only Philipp Grubauer has a case for faring worse among starters.
While Schmid's been one of the better goaltenders in the AHL this season, that hasn't translated into any NHL success thus far. He owns a woeful .851 save percentage through three appearances, having allowed 10 goals on just 67 shots.
Deservedly or not, the Dallas Stars should be able to score a few goals in this game. I also expect Jack Hughes and Co. to contribute their fair share against Braden Holtby, who owns an .896 save percentage since Dec. 1.
Bet: Over 6 (-105)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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