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NFL Week 4 player props: Riding the reliable

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Whoops. As expected, Mac Jones threw it all over the Ravens last week, but, as we feared, he never actually connected in the end zone. He even ran one in! Between that bit of misfortune and Derrick Henry barely dragging his total across the line, it was a second straight 5-5 week. Mitigated by some plus-money plays, we dropped just 0.15 units, moving to 17-13 (+3.75 units) on the season.

Alvin Kamara over 26.5 receiving yards (-115)

The good folks at theScore Bet wouldn't make me an "Andy Dalton check-down" total, so this will have to suffice. Dalton kept Cowboy tight ends fed during his season in Dallas, but the Saints' short passing game is better when it runs through Kamara. The Vikings have given up the seventh-most receiving yards to running backs this campaign. Whether it's on volume or a big play, Kamara clears this total for the first time this season.

Lamar Jackson over 231.5 passing yards (-115)

Speaking of Dalton, the MVP of the league through three weeks is being lined like he's Dalton. Maybe some potentially sloppy weather is depressing this total. However, a game script that could feature big plays and quick scoring drives should create ample opportunity for Jackson to put up passing yards against the Bills' banged-up secondary.

Khalil Herbert over 75.5 rushing yards (-115)

If you read this week's look at the NFL futures markets, you know we've got some low-risk/high-reward hopes for Herbert. The little-known tailback is getting the bulk of the workload this week with David Montgomery out. That's a timely opportunity for him against a porous Giants run defense that was gashed Monday night. It's Herbert's time to shine, and he will Sunday.

Jacoby Brissett under 29.5 pass attempts (-110)

This bet doesn't really have anything to do with Brissett. It's more about the Browns finally getting a soft run defense in front of them. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should share a ton of carries, but their lines of 89.5 and 43.5 rushing yards, respectively, are too rich for my blood. Instead, we'll bet that Brissett either doesn't need to do much, or his play-action attempts gain big yardage. Either way, it'll keep his total passing attempts down.

Travis Etienne over 2.5 receptions (-110)

You don't get extra money for finding a new bet, so we'll continue incorporating Etienne as long as the Jaguars include him in the passing game. Jacksonville doesn't have the offensive line to take the sting out of the Eagles' pass rush, so it'll need to keep a tight end in the game to block. And the quick throws should go to Etienne.

Garrett Wilson over 45.5 receiving yards (-115)

Zach Wilson is back. You might think there will be a change in who gets the targets in the Jets' offense given that slot receiver Braxton Berrios had the most receiving yards in five of the 12 full games Zach played last season. However, Garrett Wilson has been lining up frequently in the slot, opening him up to use his elusiveness to get a free release in man coverage. Wherever he lines up, look for Wilson-to-Wilson to be a thing in Zach's season debut.

Jonathan Taylor under 95.5 rushing yards (-115)

How much credence do you put into three games? The Titans have allowed a league-worst 5.8 yards per carry this season, but most of that stems from getting burned by Saquon Barkley in Week 1. Tennessee placed top five in stopping the run in 2021 and held Taylor to just 64 and 70 yards in its two meetings against the Colts during the running back's career year.

Jared Goff under 253.5 passing yards (-115)

The Lions' lineup will be missing 330 receiving yards on Sunday, and that's before Detroit's ruled anyone out other than Amon-Ra St. Brown and D'Andre Swift. And I'm supposed to believe that won't affect Goff's yardage totals? Even if we think the Seahawks are live to win this game, Detroit is still favored - suggesting they're more likely to be in a run-first game state.

Demarcus Lawrence over 0.5 sacks (-130)

Carson Wentz has been sacked an outrageous five times per game this season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys used Micah Parsons' presence to create opportunities for others on Dallas' defensive line last week, and Demarcus Lawrence found himself with three sacks. We'll put our 1-0 sack prop record on the line here.

Russell Wilson under 242.5 passing yards (-115)

We might be playing the bottom of the market here, but the only time Wilson has gone over this total is in Week 1. That night in Seattle was a perfect storm of circumstances with the Broncos trailing throughout and a soft pass defense. This game should be close, and Denver appears aware that its running game gives it the best chance to win, while a desperate Raiders team will focus on Wilson on defense.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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