Nothing quite unites the football world like another installment of quarterback rankings. With all 32 teams back at work for training camp, there's no better time to size up the projected starters for 2026.

This exercise is less about evaluating quarterbacks solely on past performance and more about stacking them in a vacuum and projecting where I expect them to be in 2026. Imagine you're the general manager of a team with a painfully average roster and an unspectacular offensive coordinator - which signal-caller will give you the best chance to win?

Stat glossary

EPA/DB - Expected points added per dropback (TruMedia)
CPOE - Completion percentage over expected (NFL Pro)
Y/A - Yards per pass attempt
QBR - Adjusted total quarterback rating (ESPN)

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.15 (T7th)	+1.5% (T14th)	8.0 (5th)	65.4 (7th)

I may be late to the party here since this is the first time in a while that I didn't pick Patrick Mahomes as my clear No. 1 quarterback. However, Allen has always been a cyborg. His incredible physical traits offer limitless upside both as a downfield passer and as a runner, but he's also consistently improved his processing from the pocket. Allen's mental game is now just as much a strength as his athleticism. Not many players in football history can match his ability to elevate a supporting cast and drag his team to wins.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.04 (T18th)	-2.2% (27th)	8.4 (3rd)	62.7 (9th)

Jackson struggled at times last season, but I'm willing to chalk it up to injuries. He won his second career MVP in 2023, then performed even better to finish runner-up in 2024. With 41 touchdowns and just four interceptions on a league-best 8.8 yards per attempt - all while adding 915 rushing yards - I'd go as far as to consider the encore performance as one of the best quarterback seasons of all time. Jackson has always been a better pocket passer than he gets credit for, and I think he'll be an excellent fit in a new-look Ravens offense that figures to get him under center for more play-action.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.12 (9th)	-2.9% (29th)	7.1 (T17th)	68.5 (6th)

Considering his place among the best quarterbacks ever, ranking Mahomes this low feels almost criminal. Still, given the middling results over the last few seasons, it's tough to justify keeping him over Allen and Jackson. That said, I think it's only a matter of time before Mahomes and the Chiefs rediscover the downfield passing game that made them an unstoppable force early in his career. The 30-year-old's innate ability to extend plays will also continue to make him a nuisance to defend in crunch time.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.06 (T15th)	+2.1% (12th)	7.0 (19th)	63.0 (DNQ)

Burrow has consistently ranked among the best quarterbacks whenever he's been on the field. While his arm talent isn't quite in the realm of the other top players on this list, the Bengals superstar's elite accuracy and processing skills more than make up for it. Does it help that he gets to team up with the league's premier receiver tandem in Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins? Of course it does, but Burrow's precision passing, timing, and anticipation could elevate any offense.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.28 (1st)	+9.1% (1st)	8.9 (1st)	77.1 (1st)

Some might argue that Maye benefited from a soft schedule as a sophomore. Even if we accept that exaggerated premise, he still would've had to be pretty damn good to lead the league in each of the above metrics. Posting these kinds of numbers as a sophomore puts Maye on the fast track to being a consensus elite quarterback. I'm expecting him to take another big step forward in what will be only his second full year as an NFL starter.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.20 (3rd)	+1.5% (T14th)	7.9 (T6th)	71.2 (4th)

Stafford is at the point in his career where his play could fall off a cliff out of nowhere. Given the uncertainty, you may prefer one of the younger top-end quarterbacks for the season ahead, but this ranking could prove to be too low if the 38-year-old maintains the MVP level of play he enjoyed last year.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.03 (T20th)	+3.4% (T6th)	7.3 (T12th)	60.6 (13th)

Herbert has become something of a polarizing quarterback. A big part of the football community sees him as an otherworldly talent who just needs his team not to spontaneously combust around him. Others are unwilling to look past the lack of results. As you can probably tell by this ranking, I'm a card-carrying Herbert truther. Mike McDaniel's arrival as offensive coordinator should finally help the Chargers unlock the upside that comes with their quarterback's ridiculous arm and underrated athleticism.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.16 (6th)	+4.4% (3rd)	7.6 (T9th)	70.2 (5th)

I'm proud to say I've never given in to narratives that unfairly disparage Cowboys quarterbacks. As was the case with Tony Romo before him, Prescott ends up a target of far too much criticism for no reason other than his position at the helm of the league's most iconic (and most hated) franchise. Interceptions are bound to happen when you're willing to challenge tight windows and make the kind of throws that others don't. Prescott is one of the best pure pocket passers in the game today.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.22 (2nd)	+3.8% (5th)	7.7 (8th)	72.7 (3rd)

This might be the year that Love takes the next step toward joining the NFL's elite. While some skeptics will note that he fell short of 3,400 passing yards for a second straight season, Love's ability to attack downfield efficiently is right up there with the best in the business. His 5.8% big-time throw rate finished second only to Matthew Stafford among qualified passers in 2025, according to PFF. Most notably, though, he quietly reined in his penchant for costly turnovers, throwing a career-low six interceptions across 15 games.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.08 (13th)	-6.9% (33rd)	6.9 (T20th)	58.2 (16th)

Anyone looking to slow the Williams hype train could easily point to the numbers and argue that he still has a way to go in terms of accuracy. Although that might be fair, I've yet to waver in my belief that the former No. 1 pick will end up being the best quarterback from that stacked 2024 class. And with another year of development under Ben Johnson, I can't imagine Williams not jumping into the NFL's overall top 10. His rare combination of arm talent and feel for off-script playmaking is up there with Mahomes.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
-0.01 (DNQ)	-3.3% (DNQ)	6.7 (DNQ)	44.7 (DNQ)

Daniels wasn't exactly spectacular in the seven games he played in between multiple injury absences last year, but I'm inclined to think a historically great rookie season is the better representation of the player he'll be. The former No. 2 pick is a sensational athlete who's far better from the pocket than anyone realized after he left LSU. Daniels could be a steady climber on this list if he can protect himself and stay on the field.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.09 (12th)	+4.3% (4th)	8.5 (2nd)	55.6 (19th)

A lot of people are exercising caution when it comes to buying in on Darnold's late breakout. To those critics, I ask: what else do you need to see? The Vikings' offense falling apart after Darnold's departure should be more than enough evidence that he wasn't simply a product of Kevin O'Connell's system. And he was arguably even better in Seattle, finishing second only to Maye in yards per attempt while leading an explosive Seahawks passing attack. Oh, and then he outduelled Stafford in a spectacular NFC title game before leading Seattle to a Super Bowl win over New England. Darnold is for real.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.17 (5th)	+1.6% (13th)	7.9 (T6th)	57.3 (18th)

Though Goff might seem a little low based on recent numbers, a top-13 standing is nothing to scoff at. His proficiency at attacking the intermediate level of the field from the pocket puts him firmly within the tier of quarterbacks capable of leading a team to a Super Bowl. However, Detroit's offensive line issues last year highlighted his lack of mobility. In an average situation - where protection might not be stellar and without Detroit's cast of weapons - Goff's production would likely trend more toward the middle of the pack.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.05 (17th)	-2.7% (28th)	7.2 (T14th)	58.3 (T14th)

I'm holding out on moving Lawrence too far up my rankings until we see him sustain last year's level of play. Perhaps that's a little unfair, considering Liam Coen's arrival may have finally unlocked the franchise quarterback that the Jaguars envisioned when they selected him at the top of the 2021 draft. But Lawrence also seemed to be on this path after his sophomore campaign, only to stumble for the next two seasons. If his new and improved decision-making is here to stay and he continues to use his legs as a complement to his unique arm talent, Lawrence absolutely has top-10 upside.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.04 (T18th)	+2.9% (11th)	7.1 (T17th)	55.2 (20th)

Hurts has become one of the more polarizing quarterbacks. At times, he looks like a legitimate superstar. Other times, he seems like the one holding the Eagles' offense back. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle and heavily influenced by scheme fit. If you have an offense designed to take vertical shots down the sideline and leverage your quarterback's abilities as a runner, Hurts is a game-changer. The results will probably be less consistent in a system that focuses on attacking the middle of the field. With the Eagles seemingly transitioning toward the latter, Hurts will be fascinating to watch in 2026.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.18 (4th)	+5.1% (2nd)	7.6 (T9th)	72.8 (2nd)

Purdy is one of the prime examples where, if we're truly ranking quarterbacks in a vacuum, his landing spot might seem strange given the numbers he's posted. While I'm not sure his arm talent or ball placement would hold up outside the friendly confines of a Kyle Shanahan offense, Purdy's timing, anticipation, and ability to extend plays have elevated that unit to new heights. As much as the "system quarterback" moniker can be derogatory, he really is the perfect quarterback for the 49ers.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.07 (14th)	+0.8% (17th)	7.2 (T14th)	61.7 (11th)

I'm not going to throw in the towel on Stroud based on an embarrassing playoff performance. The Texans quarterback was borderline unplayable in the last two games in January, but I'd argue the implosion was the culmination of him getting progressively uncomfortable over two years behind a bad offensive line. Houston took significant steps to solidify that group this offseason, which makes me think that we'll see the poised, accurate version of Stroud who cruised to Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2023.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.06 (DNQ)	-1.0% (DNQ)	6.0 (DNQ)	47.2 (DNQ)

Is it fair to say that Murray has quietly become underrated? Sure, it's easy to understand why the Cardinals thought it was time for a change under center. Murray's injury issues certainly didn't help his cause, with 2025 marking his third season in four years that he failed to start at least 12 games. Still, this isn't the type of player who teams should feel good about eating dead money to send packing. If healthy, Murray's ability to attack downfield and make magic in the face of pressure will be a monumental upgrade over what the Vikings had at quarterback in 2025.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.06 (T15th)	-1.7% (23rd)	6.8 (T23rd)	61.3 (12th)

Mayfield is another quarterback who has enjoyed highs that would merit a much more favorable spot on this list. He's also had some not-so-great moments, including last season's rough finish. From Week 6 through the end of the regular season, Mayfield ranked 25th in EPA/dropback, right behind Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins. He probably deserves a bit of slack since he and the offense were beat up for much of the year, but he's largely an average starter with the capacity to get hot for stretches. You can win with that kind of quarterback if the timing is right.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.10 (11th)	-2.1% (26th)	6.4 (T28th)	58.3 (T14th)

Nix is a tough one to rank. His raw numbers are mostly good, and he's produced in the clutch, but it's the rest of his game that gives me pause. For every exciting moment Nix provides, often while scrambling, his general inconsistency and limitations as a downfield passer leave something to be desired. Notably, he's thrown a league-high 279 passes behind the line of scrimmage over the last two years. On attempts of 10-plus air yards, he finished the 2025 campaign tied with Tua Tagovailoa for 23rd in EPA/dropback. Nix would need to be more of a game-changer than a game-manager before getting a meaningful bump up this list.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
-0.15 (33rd)	-3.0% (30th)	5.9 (33rd)	33.2 (28th)

Ward's rookie numbers were downright atrocious, but he nearly cracks my top 20 anyway because I just don't think much of that was his fault. You didn't have to squint last season while watching Titans games to realize the 2025 No. 1 pick could be special if he got a passable supporting cast. I'm betting that we start to see that upside this year after an offseason in which Tennessee made wholesale changes to the roster and coaching staff.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.15 (T7th)	+3.4% (T6th)	8.1 (4th)	63.0 (8th)

This feels like an important time to reiterate a reminder about this exercise. If we're ranking quarterbacks based exclusively on how they last played, Jones would be quite a bit higher, as he undeniably excelled after landing with the Colts. Am I confident that he could replicate that level of success in a different environment? With such a small sample of career success? And now coming off a torn Achilles? I'd have to see it again first.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
-0.02 (T27th)	-0.4% (21st)	6.3 (30th)	47.6 (22nd)

There are always several moments in each season where I find myself wanting to buy in on Young. But just as often, I'm left wondering if he'll ever put it all together. While this could very well be the year he finally makes it happen, he'll remain in the bottom 10 until we see the Alabama playmaker version of Young with any shred of consistency.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.01 (T23rd)	+0.6% (18th)	7.3 (T12th)	48.8 (21st)

Shough had some really promising moments after taking over as the starter in the second half of his rookie season. He quickly showed all the traits - arm talent, touch, accuracy, and processing - that I thought made him a worthy Day 2 pick, even at 25 years old. Perhaps the age means he's already approaching his developmental ceiling, but the player we've seen already is still a capable starting NFL quarterback.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.03 (T20th)	-2.0% (25th)	6.7 (T25th)	57.5 (17th)

Dart made an impact at the NFL level far sooner than I expected. If the development he displayed after his final season at Ole Miss is any indication, then he could be in for a considerable sophomore leap. He certainly has some alluring physical traits, and his toughness is undeniable. Still, the Giants' new coaching staff will have to help him improve his pocket presence, downfield accuracy, and awareness to avoid unnecessary contact.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.01 (T23rd)	-1.3% (22nd)	6.7 (T25th)	44.4 (23rd)

It hurts to rank an all-time great this low. Rodgers has occasionally shown flashes of his old self when he's looked to rip the ball downfield, but those moments will be few and far between at 42. Last year, his 6.0 air yards per attempt was the lowest mark among all qualified quarterbacks. A dink-and-dunk passer who offers zero escapability under pressure isn't going to cut it in today's game, even if he does still take care of the ball.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
-0.11 (31st)	+1.0% (16th)	6.8 (T23rd)	34.1 (27th)

I couldn't justify ranking Smith any higher because his lone season in Las Vegas was that bad. His accuracy and decision-making sharply declined after an excellent run in Seattle, and he finished the campaign with a league-worst 17 interceptions. He could be poised for a bit of a bounce back in New York, since the dire situation with the Raiders undoubtedly played a role in his struggles. At 35, however, it's also possible that his physical tools have diminished, making his gunslinger play style more of a liability than an asset.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.66 (DNQ)	13.8% (DNQ)	12.1 (DNQ)	93.1 (DNQ)

Fair warning: the diabolical stats you see above are mostly from the six-plus quarters Willis played in place of an injured Jordan Love toward the end of last season. The small sample of film was impressive, too, earning Willis a big-money payday as the new starter in Miami. He'll need to show that he can sustain his improved pocket skills away from Matt LaFleur's offense, but his arm talent and elite running ability offer plenty of developmental upside.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
0.02 (22nd)	+3.4% (T6th)	6.9 (T20th)	41.2 (24th)

Brissett is an underrated quarterback who probably deserved better than having to jump to six different teams over the last six years. The Cardinals' offense had a few fun moments with the journeyman veteran under center last year, but Brissett's true value is as an elite backup. He doesn't have the traits to be anything more than a low-end starter.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
-0.01 (26th)	-0.3% (20th)	6.9 (T20th)	37.5 (26th)

Mike McDaniel's program in Miami probably got a little stale, but Tagovailoa suddenly struggling to operate a QB-friendly passing game is a worrying sign for his trajectory. Will his accuracy and timing compensate for a lack of arm talent and mobility in another system?

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
-0.02 (T27th)	-1.9% (24th)	6.4 (T28th)	47.6 (DNQ)

I'm expecting Cousins to start for a good chunk of this season while the Raiders take their time with the development of No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza. The 37-year-old produced encouraging moments down the stretch last season, suggesting he could regain some of his old form the further removed he is from a 2023 Achilles injury. However, that's probably wishful thinking at this stage of his career.

2025 stats

EPA/DB	CPOE	Y/A	QBR
-	-	-	-

Watson makes the list over Shedeur Sanders because it seems likely that the Browns will take one last shot at getting something (anything) out of their $230 million investment. Recent results indicate this will be an enormous waste of everyone's time. Watson's minus-0.19 EPA/dropback across 19 games in Cleveland ranks 39th out of 40 quarterbacks to log at least that many starts since 2022. Only Zach Wilson fared worse, and the 0.1-point gap between Watson and 38th-ranked Will Levis equals the gap between Levis and Caleb Williams. Start the kid.