NFL Week 5 line moves: The market is sending messages

It might be most notable which line hasn't moved during the early Week 5 market movement.

The Chiefs blew out the Bills in the AFC Championship Game last season as 2.5-point favorites. Months later, the line is the exact same. The Bills' dominant start to the season and the Chiefs' 2-2 record are probably equally weighted following that one-sided affair back in January.

Let's look at the other lines to watch heading into Week 5.

Rams @ Seahawks (+2.5, 54.5)

The number is moving away from the Seahawks heading into the Thursday nighter, which is surprising given their reputation at home, and their 10-1 straight-up record on Thursday nights in Seattle.

Add in the Rams' Week 4 loss and the Seahawks' win, and this line moving from Seattle -1 to the Rams as short favorites is the opposite of what one might expect. Russell Wilson and Co. become very interesting at +3, but even if the line doesn't stretch to the key number, a Seattle teaser leg of +8.5 should be hard to beat.

Jets @ Falcons (-3, 46)

A small move from 3.5 down to 3 is a bigger deal around the key number of -3. However, that's probably coming from nothing more than uncertainty around whether Atlanta should be giving more than a field goal to anyone.

It helps that the Jets won last week, and a transatlantic flight likely won't stop the Falcons from continuing their weekly search for ways to lose.

Packers @ Bengals (+3, 50.5)

Speaking of big moves, the lookahead line featured the Packers at -6 here and it reopened at -3.5. If you think that's short, the bigger indicator of a move might be that it's dropped further to -3.

The sneaky-important injury from this past Sunday was to Green Bay's shutdown corner Jaire Alexander. Without him locking up one side of the field, Joe Burrow should be able to target his favorite weapon at his leisure.

Broncos @ Steelers (-1.5, 40)

If the summer lookahead lines set the starting point for a line move, the Steelers would be featured in this column every week.

Bettors can't downgrade Pittsburgh fast enough, but the Broncos are dealing with their own issues under center, and a significant difference between Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock. If the former is healthy, the favorite might flip by Sunday.

Dolphins @ Buccaneers (-10, 48)

Even though the Dolphins' Week 4 loss was mostly due to shoddy run defense, Jacoby Brissett takes the blame for the defeat to Indianapolis, and that's led to a move here to +10 from +7.5.

The Buccaneers are dealing with injuries in their defensive backfield and to offensive security blanket Rob Gronkowski, making it hard to understand Tampa giving double-digit points to the Dolphins, who aren't likely to get gashed on the ground again.

Patriots @ Texans (+9, 40)

The Patriots earned some respect while nearly notching an upset win over their former quarterback Sunday night. Now they move from a significant home underdog to a massive road favorite.

That's a standard line move that NFL handicappers know how to play, especially with the shift upward from Patriots -6 to -9. How high will this line move with no one wanting anything to do with the Texans? I'll be looking to bite the bullet at +10.

49ers @ Cardinals (-5.5, 50)

The buy low/sell high spot of the weekend features an overadjustment toward the Cardinals after the preseason line was around a pick 'em. The move is understandable because Arizona is the league's last undefeated team, but bettors are tasked with taking advantage of these spots.

Giants @ Cowboys (-7, 52)

Logging two comfortable wins over six days will bring betting attention to "America's Team," as perhaps the preseason hype from 2020 is finally being realized.

That's why this line opened back up at Cowboys -7.5. Daniel Jones put together arguably the best game of his career in New Orleans, so bettors grabbed the hook right away on a Giants team that plays much better on the road.

Colts @ Ravens (-7, 45.5)

The Colts won in Miami, but the market isn't sold on Indianapolis. The Ravens are a different animal at home in prime-time, especially with All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson not healthy for Indy.

The Colts will need to keep Carson Wentz upright somehow. They're at least getting a full touchdown on Monday, which is as high as this line has been since the summer lookahead openers.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.