CFB betting: The Group of 5 conference championships

There's a lot at stake for those competing in the conference championships this weekend. Dreams of promotion to the Power 5 exist - like SMU to the ACC - and someone will get a trip to a New Year's Six bowl game. But the primary goal for these ten teams before the season was to win this matchup.

C-USA: New Mexico State @ No. 20 Liberty (-11.5, 56.5)

Friday, 7:00 p.m. EST

New Mexico State proved itself by beating Auburn two weeks ago. But Liberty is a much tougher test.

The undefeated Flames are third in the country in offensive early-down success rate (EDSR) and expected points added per play (EPA/play). Only Oregon and LSU are ahead of them. The Aggies, meanwhile, run the 64th-ranked defense in EPA/play. It'll be a tough matchup against dual-threat quarterback Kaidon Salter, who possesses the fourth-highest passer rating.

The Aggies' quarterback, Diego Pavia, has captured bettors' hearts, and a 15-1 ticket is reasonable. But Liberty already held Pavia to 215 total passing and rushing yards in a 16-point home win earlier this season.

As the top seed, Liberty earned home-field advantage. While the road win in Auburn was impressive, Jordan-Hare Stadium wasn't as hot of a scene as we might see in Lynchburg, Virginia. I projected this matchup at -14, so there's still some value on the Flames - especially if -10 comes back into the market.

Pick: Liberty (-11.5)

MAC: Miami (OH) vs. Toledo (-8, 44.5)

Saturday, 1:00 p.m. EST

Last season, Toledo held down Ohio, who was without its starting quarterback. This year, it's Miami missing their QB1 as Brett Gabbert is out and Aveon Smith is in.

On a neutral Detroit field, the Redhawks' defense can keep this close in the first half, and it may take some time for the Rockets' defense to adjust to Smith's mobility. That may result in a better price - under a touchdown - while the game is live, but look for Toledo to wear down Miami in the second half and win by more than one score.

Pick: Toledo (-7.5)

Mountain West: Boise State @ UNLV (+2.5, 58.5)

Saturday, 3:00 p.m. EST

UNLV is the Cinderella team from a preseason odds perspective and, lo and behold, the Runnin' Rebels will play the Mountain West title game in their home stadium.

It was a season of upheaval in Boise State. The head coach was fired when players announced their intent to transfer early, but the program still found a way to make this game.

Simply put, the Runnin' Rebels have the better offensive and defensive EPA/play, they're at home, they've been outperforming the market's expectations all season, and they're the underdog. It seems like an easy choice.

Pick: UNLV (+2.5)

Sun Belt: Appalachian State @ Troy (-6, 52.5)

Saturday, 4:00 p.m. EST

James Madison wasn't allowed in, so Appalachian State gets the spot in the Sun Belt title game thanks to a five-game winning streak. But the Mountaineers never saw Troy this season. The Trojans have quietly won nine straight, with eight coming by 18 points or more.

App State excelled thanks to its pass offense, but Troy's defense ranks tenth nationally in EPA/play and top 20 in EDSR. The Mountaineers falter in their run game and defense, which isn't promising in a road championship contest against a team that won the Sun Belt by 19 points last year.

Pick: Troy (-6.5)

American: No. 25 SMU @ No. 17 Tulane (-3.5, 47.5)

Saturday, 4:00 p.m. EST

Preston Stone broke his leg in a blowout win over Navy last week, which explains why SMU is the underdog in this matchup. Without that injury, I would have projected a pick'em for this game despite Tulane's home-field advantage.

The Mustangs will now turn to dual-threat redshirt freshman Kevin Jennings. He might not be much of a downgrade from Stone, who completed just 59.9% of his passes. SMU's defense is, by far, the best in the conference. Tulane hasn't faced anyone with nearly the same defensive quality.

The Green Wave made this game by taking advantage of five UTSA turnovers last week. As long as SMU doesn't give Tulane short fields, this one should come down to the wire - even without Stone.

Pick: SMU +3.5

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.