CFB bad line of the week: Auburn trending in right direction
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Last week's bad line was on Minnesota, and we weren't even close.
We're pushing ahead into Week 12, anyway, and this line has us scratching our heads.
Bad line of the week: Auburn (-10.5 vs. Tennessee)
Tennessee and Auburn have both been all over the place this season. But the home team's where the money's at in Week 12.
The public cooled on Auburn early, but now is the time to check back in. After splitting their first four games and going 1-3 against the spread, the Tigers have nabbed back-to-back wins and covered the last two. They're coming off their best performance of the season - a 37-point shellacking over reigning national champion LSU - and are back at Jordan-Hare Stadium, where they're 3-0 and own a plus-55 scoring margin in 2020.
Auburn fell out of the playoff race early and likely isn't a threat to the Alabamas of the SEC. But that doesn't mean we should completely dismiss the Tigers. They're still passing most advanced metrics, ranking No. 21 in SP+ and sitting inside the top 15 nationally in most defensive categories. This is still a very talented team with potential value down the final stretch of the season.
The same can't be said of Tennessee. The Volunteers are currently in free fall, dropping each of the last four both straight up and against the spread.
SP+ has punished the Volunteers, dropping them to No. 63 in the country. For context, programs such as Nevada (No. 57), Troy (No. 53), Army (No. 52), Tulane (No. 50), San Diego State (No. 46), and Tulsa (No. 45) are all ranked higher.
Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn gets some extra time to prepare with the bye week, and that advantage has usually paid dividends: The Tigers are 5-1 against the spread the last six off the bye. Auburn's been crushing it as a home favorite, too, covering 10 of the last 13.
Tennessee, meanwhile, is just 3-7 ATS following a straight-up loss and hasn't covered since its second game of the year.
Side with the home favorite, which is trending in a far more positive direction than its Week 12 opponent.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.