NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Picks, Predictions, Recommended Wagers

NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: Picks, Predictions, Recommended Wagers

theScore Staff
11 years ago
Jeff Blake / Reuters

With the start of the NCAA tournament just days away, the staff at theScore put on their prognosticator hats to offer up selections on some of the more notable offerings on the board.

Midwest Region

Team BetOnline SIA Sportsbook.ag
Kentucky -400 -303 -400
Kansas +1000 +1000 +1000
Notre Dame +1000 +500 +1000
Wichita State +1400 +650 +1000
Maryland +2000 +2000 +2500
Texas +2500 +1200 +2000
West Virginia +3300 +5000 +4000
Butler +4000 +4000 +3500
Cincinnati +6600 +7500 +7000
Indiana +75000 +6600 +10000
Purdue +10000 +8000 +7000
Buffalo +15000 +15000 +15000
Valparaiso +15000 +15000 +15000
New Mexico State +20000 +15000 +50000
Northeastern +25000 +20000 +100000
Manhattan +30000 +50000 +500000
Hampton +100000 +50000 +999900

Gino Bottero: Kentucky is the easy pick here, but there's a steep price to pay to get in on the Wildcats. Wichita State is in good position to get to the Elite Eight with Kansas and Notre Dame prone to falling flat on their faces this time of year. If the stars align in that game, the Shockers could provide a nice payday. Wichita State +1400 (BetOnline)

Mike Dickson: Is it the obvious choice? Yes. Is it the right one? Yes. While Kentucky may have been given a very difficult region to deal with, there's no reason to think the nation's best team will be stopping its victory march anytime soon. Kentucky -303 (SIA)

Blake Murphy: Look, Kentucky is going to win its region, and probably the entire tournament. But this is about a return on investment, and a regional winner at 1-to-3 odds provides exactly zero value. Texas has long odds at +2500 and appear to have been under-seeded based on advanced metrics. If you're picking against Kentucky, you may as well go long. Texas +2500 (BetOnline)

West Region

Team BetOnline SIA Sportsbook.ag
Arizona +125 +160 +130
Wisconsin +150 +190 +130
North Carolina +850 +1000 +850
Baylor +1200 +1200 +1200
Ohio State +2000 +1800 +2000
VCU +2500 +2000 +5000
Arkansas +3300 +2000 +2500
Xavier +3300 +2200 +4000
Oregon +4000 +5000 +6000
Oklahoma State +4000 +5000 +6000
BYU +4000 +4000 +6000
Ole Miss +5000 +5000 +7500
Wofford +10000 +7500 +30000
Harvard +10000 +10000 +30000
Georgia State +10000 +15000 +30000
Coastal Carolina +30000 +30000 +500000
Texas Southern +50000 +30000 +500000
Frank Kaminsky, F, Wisconsin

Bottero: Wisconsin and Arizona played one another a year ago to determine who would escape the West in a game that was decided by just a single point. Those two are the class of the region once again, and in a game that could again be a toss-up, the Badgers offer better odds. Wisconsin +190 (SIA)

Dickson: Many felt the Wildcats deserved a No. 1 seed after cruising through the Pac-12, but Arizona shouldn't really be complaining about its draw. A relatively pain-free trip to the Elite Eight seems in the cards and a win over Wisconsin gets Zona back in the Final Four for the first time since 2001. Arizona +160 (SIA)

Murphy: I love Arizona, but the top two seeds going off at 2-to-1 odds is hardly enticing value. UNC got a bum draw for an ACC runner-up, but they have the talent to hang with just about anybody. Short on value at No. 1 and No. 2, North Carolina at +800 makes sense. North Carolina +1000 (SIA)

East Region

Team BetOnline SIA Sportsbook.ag
Villanova +125 +160 +150
Virginia +225 +175 +200
Oklahoma +650 +550 +600
Northern Iowa +1200 +800 +800
Michigan State +1200 +800 +1200
Louisville +1400 +900 +1000
Providence +3300 +3000 +4000
LSU +3000 +1200 +6000
NC State +3300 +2500 +6000
Georgia +4000 +5000 +7500
Dayton +4000 +4000 +10000
Boise State +5000 +6600 +20000
Wyoming +6600 +5000 +27500
UC Irvine +10000 +15000 +30000
Albany +20000 +25000 +100000
Belmont +20000 +15000 +50000
Lafayette +50000 +50000 +500000

Bottero: Villanova looks to be the most vulnerable of the top-seeded teams, which means the East is likely the best place for bettors to find value. That top part of the bracket is the place to look for it, and Northern Iowa is the way to go. At 12-to-1 odds, there figures to be a hedging opportunity in a potential Elite Eight matchup with Virginia. Northern Iowa +1200 (BetOnline)

Dickson: The third set of Wildcats in my Final Four may be the squad with the best chance of knocking off Kentucky, although for that to happen both teams would need to make the championship game. Villanova's biggest challengers will be Louisville and Virginia, but both the Cardinals and Cavaliers have shown some flaws down the stretch. Villanova +160 (SIA)

Murphy: I'll explain why I like Virginia as an overall pick in a later question, but allow me to justify going (almost) with chalk instead of a value play in this one. This region is pretty thin. It's Villanova and Virginia, and I think with a top defense and an extra 65 cents at the window, the Cavaliers make slightly more sense. Virginia +225 (BetOnline)

South Region

Team BetOnline SIA Sportsbook.ag
Duke +180 +150 +135
Gonzaga +275 +185 +260
Iowa State +500 +500 +500
Utah +600 +800 +600
Georgetown +1600 +1300 +1500
SMU +1600 +1200 +1500
Iowa +2000 +3000 +3200
San Diego State +2500 +3000 +3200
Davidson +3300 +5000 +6000
UCLA +3300 +3300 +7500
St. John's +4000 +4000 +7500
SF Austin +4000 +3000 +7500
Eastern Washington +15000 +10000 +100000
UAB +15000 +10000 +100000
North Florida +15000 +30000 +200000
North Dakota State +20000 +25000 +200000
Robert Morris +30000 +30000 +500000
Georges Niang, F, Iowa State

Bottero: Iowa State has a pretty favorable path to the Final Four. The top two teams in the Cyclones' way - Gonzaga and Duke - both pride themselves on scoring the basketball over defending their own basket, and Iowa State can score with anyone. If they can avoid another key injury in the early rounds, the Cyclones could be on their way to big things this year. Iowa State +500 (widely available)

Dickson: The Cyclones end the string of Wildcat domination (I see you Davidson) and enter March Madness with all kinds of momentum. After knocking off Oklahoma and Kansas on the way to the Big 12 tournament championship, Iowa State is confident and plays an exciting brand of basketball. The Cyclones making the Final Four would be a treat for fans. Iowa State +500 (widely available)

Murphy: I'm not in love with Duke or Gonzaga, and this region feels more wide open than the rest. Utah and Iowa State are both potential plays at the next level, and while the Utes have a slightly tougher road to the Sweet Sixteen - having come out a loser on Selection Sunday - they may also be a top-10 team in the country. This is solid value. Utah +800 (SIA)

National Champion

Team BetOnline SIA Sportsbook.ag
Kentucky +120 +100 -110
Wisconsin +700 +900 +850
Villanova +800 +1000 +1000
Arizona +850 +730 +800
Duke +1000 +651 +850
Virginia +1000 +1000 +1200
Gonzaga +1600 +1400 +2000
Iowa State +2500 +2500 +3000
Notre Dame +2800 +2400 +3000
Kansas +4000 +4000 +6000
Michigan State +4000 +4000 +7500
Utah +4000 +3300 +6000
Oklahoma +4000 +4000 +6500
North Carolina +4000 +2800 +4000
Louisville +5000 +4000 +7500
Wichita State +5000 +5000 +8000
Baylor +6600 +5000 +6000
Ohio State +6600 +7000 +10000
Northern Iowa +6600 +4000 +8500
SMU +6600 +7000 +10000
Maryland +10000 +6600 +4000
Texas +10000 +7000 +10000
VCU +10000 +8000 +20000
Arkansas +10000 +7000 +20000
San Diego State +10000 +8000 +30000
Georgetown +10000 +5000 +15000
LSU +10000 +8000 +10000
West Virginia +10000 +10000 +9000
NC State +10000 +7000 +25000
Xavier +10000 +8000 +17500
Butler +15000 +10000 +10000
Georgia +15000 +12500 +50000
Iowa +15000 +10000 +25000
Providence +15000 +10000 +25000
UCLA +15000 +10000 +30000
BYU +15000 +15000 +30000
Davidson +15000 +10000 +100000
Dayton +15000 +15000 +50000
St. John's +15000 +12500 +25000
Oklahoma State +20000 +15000 +50000
Indiana +20000 +15000 +22500
Oregon +20000 +15000 +50000
Wofford +20000 +15000 Field (+50000)
Wyoming +20000 +15000 Field (+50000)
Buffalo +20000 +15000 Field (+50000)
Cincinnati +25000 +20000 +50000
Purdue +25000 +20000 +30000
SF. Austin +25000 +15000 +100000
Ole Miss +25000 +15000 +25000
Boise State +25000 +20000 +100000
Albany +30000 +25000 Field (+50000)
Georgia State +30000 +50000 Field (+50000)
Harvard +30000 +25000 Field (+50000)
UC Irvine +30000 +25000 Field (+50000)
UAB +30000 +25000 Field (+50000)
Northeastern +30000 +25000 Field (+50000)
Eastern Washington +30000 +50000 Field (+50000)
Valparaiso +30000 +25000 +200000
Belmont +50000 +50000 Field (+50000)
New Mexico State +50000 +50000 Field (+50000)
North Dakota State +50000 +50000 Field (+50000)
Texas Southern +50000 +50000 Field (+50000)
Coastal Carolina +100000 +100000 Field (+50000)
Manhattan +100000 +100000 Field (+50000)
Robert Morris +100000 +100000 Field (+50000)
North Florida +100000 +100000 Field (+50000)
Lafayette +100000 +100000 Field (+50000)
Hampton +100000 +100000 Field (+50000)

Bottero: The Cyclones can score at will. If they can tighten up just a bit defensively and clean up their defensive rebounding, they'll have all the makings of a title team. The thing that can sink Kentucky is an opponent that gets hot shooting the basketball, and Iowa State shoots 48 percent from the field. Iowa State +3000 (Sportsbook.ag)

Dickson: Too much talent, too deep, too perfect. A big part of me wanted to go out on a limb and pull a winner from somewhere else in the field, but it just didn't make sense. John Calipari's recruiting acumen has put together the kind of squad other programs always feared he would, and Big Blue Nation will reap the benefits, becoming the eighth undefeated champion in NCAA history and the first since Indiana in 1976. Kentucky +120 (BetOnline)

Murphy: I think Arizona is the second-best team in the country, but you're getting far more juice on a Virginia bet. I'm not convinced the Cavaliers can score enough to beat Kentucky, but with the No. 1 defense in the country and a +1200 line, they seem like the best mix of potential and value. Virginia +1200 (Sportsbook.ag)

Best Bet

A recommended wager from one of the Round of 64 matchups.

Bottero: Led by Pac-12 player of the year Joe Young, Oregon played some great basketball down the stretch, winning 11 of 12 games before falling to Arizona in the conference title game. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State was a curious at-large selection, limping into the tourney having lost six of seven. Oregon -1.5 over Oklahoma State (Sportsbook.ag)

DicksonUC Irvine makes its first-ever tournament appearance and couldn't have drawn a much tougher opponent. The trapping style of Rick Pitino's defense creates the kind of pressure that can put an already jittery team over the edge, and with the Anteaters on the big stage for the first time, they'll be hard-pressed to match the Cardinals' pace. Louisville -8 over UC Irvine (BetOnline)

Murphy: The issue with Round of 64 values is that everybody jumps to grab the early sleeper picks, so the value gets priced right out of a Texas or Valparaiso, or even a Buffalo, pretty quickly. That hasn't happened much with Wyoming at +260 against Northern Iowa, where Wyoming has a decent shot at an outright upset. Both teams play at a glacial pace - a good formula for a close, low-scoring game that leaves too much up to variance. Wyoming ML (+225) over Northern Iowa (BetOnline)

Lines courtesy BetOnline, Sports Interaction, Sportsbook.ag.

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