Sweet 16 bets, survivor pick for Thursday's slate
While Cinderella might be dead, true basketball fans rejoice when most of the top seeds advance to the Sweet 16, setting up thrilling matchups for the NCAA Tournament's second weekend. After a successful opening weekend, Sam Oshtry and Brenden Deeg are back with their picks, favorite underdog, and survivor play for Thursday's four-game Sweet 16 slate.
๐ Got an NCAA Tournament pick? Bet it with theScore Bet here
๐ No. 1 Arizona (-7.5) over No. 4 Arkansas
The only guarantee in this matchup is a high-scoring affair between two of the top five offenses in the country. The total is a whopping 166.5. This might seem like a large spread for an offense as prolific and a team as talented as Arkansas, but Arizona is a matchup nightmare for the Razorbacks.
For starters, Arkansas' defense ranks outside the top 50, and it's weakest in the interior. Arkansas struggles against big teams that live in the paint - as Arizona does, with the lowest 3-point rate among power conference teams. The Wildcats play a similar style to Florida, which also relied on offensive rebounding to generate extra scoring chances. Florida defeated Arkansas by 34 in late February and grabbed 20 more rebounds. I'm not saying this will be a complete blowout, but Arkansas doesn't have the personnel to contend with Arizona's paint presence. - Oshtry
๐ No. 4 Nebraska (-1.5) over No. 9 Iowa
These Big Ten teams split their season series, with Iowa taking a 57-52 dogfight and Nebraska winning the most recent matchup 84-75 in overtime.
Bennett Stirtz struggled against Florida, and it's hard to imagine the Hawkeyes advancing if he doesn't bounce back. However, the Cornhuskers did a great job against Stirtz this season, holding him to 12-for-32 shooting from the field across the two meetings. A key stat from those games that I expect to stick Thursday: Nebraska forced a turnover on more than 20% of Iowa's offensive possessions. The Cornhuskers' defense ranks sixth in KenPom's efficiency metric and has previously caused all sorts of problems for the Hawkeyes' half-court offense.
Iowa's defense also finished 165th in opponent 3-point field-goal percentage and faces a Nebraska team that's been lights-out from deep in the tourney so far. All signs point to the Cornhuskers advancing to the Elite Eight and covering this small spread. - Deeg
๐ Texas team total over 70.5
Instead of attacking the spread or the game total, let's focus on Texas' team total, which feels way too low. Purdue boasts one of the best offenses in the country, but its defense is mediocre at best. The program ranked 245th in opponent 2-point field-goal percentage and faces a Texas team that's eclipsed 71.5 points in 13 of its last 17 games.
The Longhorns' offense has run through Matas Vokietaitis in March, and it's been working. The 7-foot center is averaging 18 points a contest through three tournament games and should be able to dominate Purdue's shaky interior defense. With Dailyn Swain's athleticism and Tramon Mark's scoring ability alongside Vokietaitis, it'll be a challenge for the Boilermakers to keep Texas below 72 points. - Deeg
๐ See all the odds for Thurday's slate on theScore Bet here
๐ No. 3 Illinois (+140) over No. 2 Houston
This is essentially a home game for Houston, but it's still a terrible matchup for the Cougars. Houston relies on its defense and offensive rebounding to create scoring opportunities. Teams that can't keep Houston off the offensive glass and tend to commit live-ball turnovers are in trouble. But Illinois isn't one of those teams, and its offense ranks second on KenPom.
The Fighting Illini play slowly and execute brilliantly in the half court. They boast multiple perimeter creators and rarely turn the ball over. Plus, they've got the size to keep Houston off the glass. It's hard to doubt a Kelvin Sampson-coached defense, but this is a younger Houston team than usual, and Illinois' offense is the most efficient and skilled unit it's faced all season. The Illini's offensive firepower will overwhelm the Cougars and prevent them from generating their typical offense. - Oshtry
Oshtry - Purdue
Unfortunately, Deeg's Florida pick knocked him out of the survivor pool Sunday. But I'm still alive. Purdue is the obvious choice here if you haven't used it already. The Boilermakers are 7.5-point favorites against Texas and significantly more talented than the Longhorns. Anything can happen in survive-and-advance settings, but all the other games Thursday are toss-ups. Plus, this is the last time to use Purdue, which could potentially face Arizona in the Elite Eight.
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