College basketball teams to fade in non-conference play
Teams to fade | Teams to target
While some teams are primed to excel early in the season, other squads are simply overvalued as the college basketball campaign nears its start.
Whether it's roster turnover, sky-high expectations, or a lack of talent, we take a look at some programs worth fading during this year's non-conference schedule.
Gonzaga
The national champion runner-ups return All-American Drew Timme, bring in top recruit Chet Holmgren, and are ranked as the No. 1 team by virtually every publication. So why in the world would anyone consider fading Gonzaga this season?
Statistics and personnel aside, the Bulldogs' chances of going undefeated in non-conference play again are relatively slim, especially since they'll take on four teams in the AP Poll's top 15, plus another school ranked No. 12 in KenPom. Gonzaga will surely be favored in those games, but the squad is unlikely to cover against all of them - Texas, UCLA, Duke, Alabama, and Texas Tech.
Despite all the talent that coach Mark Few brought in, losing experienced veterans Corey Kispert and Joel Ayayi, along with freshman phenom Jalen Suggs, creates a fair amount of turnover on this roster. Don't expect Gonzaga to drop out of its No. 1 ranking, but the Bulldogs sweeping their challenging non-conference slate is an unreasonable ask.
North Carolina
A new era begins at North Carolina with Hubert Davis replacing longtime head coach Roy Williams. The Tar Heels' personnel is also changing as the program will be much more perimeter-oriented this season instead of dominating opponents down low.
Purdue and Michigan, two of North Carolina's toughest tests in the non-conference schedule, feature some of the nation's best frontcourts. The Tar Heels aren't as proficient inside the paint as they usually are, so they'll have to make threes against the Big Ten schools. Unfortunately, the team brought back only one player who hit over 32% from deep last season.
North Carolina will still feast against mid-major opponents, but challenging games early in the year could be a good opportunity to fade this group.
Creighton
Creighton is starting from scratch after all five of last year's starters left. The Bluejays' best recruiting class in program history is replacing them, with Ryan Nembhard and Arthur Kaluma being the best of the bunch. That said, all the inexperience will lead to some early-season struggles.
Games against BYU and Villanova will be especially tough, as will hosting talented Arizona State and traveling to take on in-state Nebraska. All those contests should fall within a five-point spread and are good fade options with a young Creighton squad. Another juicy matchup for the Bluejays comes when they take on North Dakota State. The Bisons brought back all five starters from a team that was a possession away from knocking off Cinderella darling Oral Roberts in last year's Summit League championship.
Oregon State
Oregon State went 1-3 against the spread against non-conference competition in 2020-21, including two outright losses to lowly Wyoming and Portland. The Beavers also don't have last year's leading scorer Ethan Thompson anymore. However, they sit 38 spots higher in KenPom compared to the previous preseason, thanks to an incredible, yet fluky run to the Elite Eight.
Don't buy into Oregon State's magical run. Treat this group more like how it played its early-season games last campaign. Look to fade the overhyped Beavers during their non-conference slate, even though all but one of their games come against teams ranked below 100 in KenPom.
Missouri
It might be a rough season for Missouri in 2021-22 with an almost entirely new team, a starting backcourt of two mid-major transfers, and no rotation player over 6-foot-8. Low preseason rankings have tempered expectations, but the Tigers could be even worse than expected.
Missouri takes on No. 3 Kansas and No. 11 Illinois in its non-conference schedule, but those lines might be too large to consider fading the Tigers. Better options are games against SMU, a team with more collective talent, and Liberty, an experienced squad that has taken down its fair share of power conference opponents. Both of those contests should have spreads within five points.