Freeman, Dodgers to break out vs. Mets on Tuesday
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The Dodgers-Mets game on Memorial Day was postponed, leaving us with two selections for Tuesday's doubleheader from Citi Field.
Tylor Megill: Over 2.5 earned runs
Megill returned to the Mets' rotation against the Guardians a few days ago. He conceded two runs over five innings of work, and the numbers suggest he was lucky he didn't give up more.
Megill threw balls at an above-average clip and allowed a ton of hard contact. His 16.7% barrel rate was double the league average. Megill struggled mightily against righties, in particular, and on Monday he'll have to deal with several high-profile right-handed bats like Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and Teoscar Hernández - not to mention all-world lefties Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman.
The Dodgers have struggled of late but have as much talent as anybody. It's only a matter of time before they break out, and a matchup against Megill, who gave up a ton of great contact in his first game back, could be just what the doctor ordered.
Megill conceded three runs over five innings the last time he faced off against the Dodgers. I expect a similar outcome this time around.
Odds: -140 (playable to -150)
Freddie Freeman: Over 0.5 singles
Freeman is a singles machine, especially on the road. He's recorded at least one single in 56% of his road games this season and is running at a 60% clip in away games dating back to 2022.
He's posted extreme splits this season, hitting .325 against right-handed pitchers while coming in at just .211 against lefties. The good news for Freeman is he's drawing a very hittable righty in Megill.
If you're into batter versus pitcher metrics, Freeman owns an extremely encouraging history against Megill. He's hit five singles off Megill over the span of just 11 at-bats. That's extreme efficiency.
It's also worth noting lefties hit .287 against Megill a season ago, and 73% of the hits he allowed were singles.
Citi Field is a big park, and the weather isn't as hot and humid as in Los Angeles. That means there are a lot of gaps to find space in and the ball won't carry as far, which is beneficial to our single chances.
Odds: -125 (playable to -140)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.