With the baseball season starting in just a few weeks, we've been breaking down the best values in the MLB futures market. Last week, we dissected the top plays to lead the majors in stolen bases, hits, and runs. This week, we've highlighted the best values to lead in RBIs, strikeouts, and wins.
Perhaps the most exciting market of all is the race for the home run crown. Last year, it was split between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Salvador Perez, who each hit 48 homers in 2021. Will we see anyone clear 50 this season? Here are the odds to lead MLB in home runs at Barstool Sportsbook, along with a few of our favorite early values:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +700 |
| Pete Alonso | +1100 |
| Salvador Perez | +1100 |
| Aaron Judge | +1300 |
| Matt Olson | +1300 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +1500 |
| Mike Trout | +1500 |
| Joey Gallo | +1600 |
| Rafael Devers | +1800 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +1800 |
| Franmil Reyes | +1800 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +2000 |
| Bryce Harper | +2000 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | +2000 |
| Yordan Alvarez | +2000 |
| Kris Bryant | +2200 |
| Juan Soto | +2200 |
| Austin Riley | +2500 |
| Tyler O'Neill | +2500 |
| Jose Abreu | +2800 |
| Kyle Schwarber | +2800 |
| Marcus Semien | +2800 |
| Manny Machado | +3300 |
| Max Muncy | +3300 |
| Jose Ramirez | +3300 |
| Miguel Sano | +3300 |
| Jorge Soler | +3300 |
| Eloy Jimenez | +3500 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | +4000 |
| Rhys Hoskins | +4000 |
| George Springer | +4000 |
| Luke Voit | +4000 |
| Nolan Arenado | +5000 |
| Nelson Cruz | +5000 |
| Freddie Freeman | +5000 |
| Francisco Lindor | +5000 |
| Hunter Renfroe | +5000 |
| Luis Robert | +5000 |
| C.J. Cron | +6000 |
| Gary Sanchez | +6000 |
| Nick Castellanos | +6600 |
| J.D. Martinez | +6600 |
| Josh Bell | +7000 |
| Cody Bellinger | +8000 |
| Mookie Betts | +8000 |
| Carlos Correa | +8000 |
| Josh Donaldson | +8000 |
| Cint Frazier | +10000 |
| DJ LeMahieu | +10000 |
Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees (+2000)
When is Stanton not a threat to lead the majors in home runs? The former MVP led the NL in homers in 2014 (37) and 2017 (59), and he's hit at least 35 four-baggers in two of his four campaigns with the Yankees.
In the other two seasons? He played a combined 41 of 222 possible games with seven home runs. His 139 games last year were his most since 2018, and he's played at least 140 in just four of his 12 MLB seasons.
Still, there's no denying his raw power: Stanton ranked third last year in average exit velocity (95.1 mph) and was the runaway leader in max exit velocity (122.2 mph). Over a healthy 162-game slate, he'd be an absolute force. He won't play that many contests in 2022, but at this price, I'd bet he plays enough to make things interesting.
Tyler O'Neill, Cardinals (+2500)
For years, O'Neill teased potential as a plus-power bat with elite tools and not a lot of production to show for it. Then came his 2021 season, when he hit 34 home runs in just 138 games and finished in the top 10 in slugging percentage (.560) and ISO (.274).
The advanced stats loved him, too. The Cardinals slugger ranked fifth in barrel rate (17.9%) and eighth in Fangraphs' hard-hit rate (42.8%), while a 93 mph average exit velocity and a 17.8-degree average launch angle are ideal for a player of O'Neill's skill set. It helped that he was even more aggressive in the zone in 2021, crushing pitches over the heart of the plate.
There's regression potential for the swing-happy 26-year-old, but there's a chance he takes a step forward in his game, too. If he manages to cut down his strikeouts while maintaining the power he showed last year? Good luck to the rest of the field.
Miguel Sano, Twins (+3300)
If you've grown tired of waiting for Sano to capitalize on his immense power potential across an entire season, you aren't alone. But there's an outside chance this is finally the year for the Twins slugger, and his price has dropped enough over the years to make it worth your while.
Sano dedicated this offseason to getting his body right after another injury-plagued campaign in 2021, when he hit 30 home runs but played just 135 games. Sure enough, he showed up to spring training having lost 25 pounds since December, which could help him stay on the field for the first time in his career. The former All-Star is also due $14 million next year with a $250,000 escalator for making at least 550 plate appearances, so there's a lot at stake for Sano.
If he does show up, his upside in the home run market is legit. Sano hit 34 homers in just 105 games in 2019, and he ranked third in Fangraphs' hard-hit rate (45.5%), sixth in barrel rate (17.7%), and seventh in average exit velocity (93.4 mph). For a player who's always had the raw power but rarely been healthy enough to show it off, this could be the year it all comes together.
Nick Castellanos, Phillies (+6600)
We're swinging for the fences with this pick. However, Castellanos has long been threatening to break into the elite hitter ranks, boasting a wOBA in the 85th percentile or better in five of the last six seasons. He finally showed off his power last season, belting a career-high 34 homers in just 138 games with the Reds.
Castellanos finished fifth in MLB in slugging percentage (.576) and 13th in ISO (.267), which came as a surprise to those who view him as merely a top-end contact bat. He also ranked eighth in swing rate on pitches in the strike zone (79.9%) but finished low in barrels thanks to a modest average exit velocity (89.8 mph).
It's a bit puzzling; Castellanos averaged 91 mph off the bat with a 16% barrel rate in 2020. He also posted career highs in max exit velocity (111.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (46.9%) in 2021. Castellanos has historically recorded a higher barrel rate in seasons with a higher launch angle, which dipped to a career-low 14 degrees a year ago. If he can put it all together with the Phillies in 2022, he's got a shot to put up monster numbers at a long-shot price.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].
