Best bets to lead MLB in wins: Will Urias defend his crown in 2022?

With the baseball season starting in just a few weeks, we've been breaking down the best values in the MLB futures market. Last week, we dissected the top plays to lead the majors in stolen bases, hits, and runs. This week, we've highlighted the best values to lead in RBIs and strikeouts.

Now we're taking a crack at the wins market, which is perhaps as unpredictable as they come. While pitching well is clearly useful in this market, durability and situation are arguably just as important.

Since 2000, 31 pitchers - excluding the shortened 2020 campaign - have earned at least a share of the lead in wins. All but one of them started at least 29 games, and all but one wins leader since 2010 played for a team that won at least 90 contests that season. Those factors have been even more relevant than actual pitching stats, though most winners produced an ERA better than 3.00.

That was the case last year for Julio Urias (2.96), who posted a stellar 20-3 record for the 106-win Dodgers. Can he do it again? Here are the odds to lead MLB in wins at Barstool Sportsbook, along with a few of our favorite early values:

Julio Urias, Dodgers (+2200)

Why can't he do it again? Sure, Urias' 87% win percentage among his 23 decisions isn't likely to be repeated, but he boasted three more wins than anyone else on the board. He also posted a 2.96 ERA over a career-high 185 2/3 innings, capitalizing on the upside he teased for years in Los Angeles.

Entering 2021, Urias had pitched into the seventh inning in just two of his 38 career starts to that point. Last year, he reached the seventh inning in nine starts - recording eight wins in the process - and lasted at least five frames in 31 of his 32 starts, putting him in excellent position to rack up wins.

It helps when his team wins 100-plus games, which is certainly in play this year with the Dodgers priced at 97.5 wins in the preseason betting market. At this price, why not take a shot on a repeat performance?

Framber Valdez, Astros (+2500)

The Astros own the second-highest preseason win total (94.5) in the majors, yet they don't have a starting pitcher in the top 10 in this market. Valdez slots in at No. 11, tied with five other pitchers and just a tick above teammate Justin Verlander (+2600).

If you're looking to mine value in this Astros rotation, the better bet is Valdez, who garnered Cy Young votes in 2020 and earned the win in 11 of his 22 starts in 2021. He showed signs of dominance in the ALCS before getting rocked in his two World Series starts - likely knocking his price down a few notches in this market - but he's talented enough to put together a strong run in 2022.

Dylan Cease, White Sox (+4500)

We highlighted Cease's immense potential in our breakdown of the strikeout market, and an inconsistent showing in 2021 was still good enough for a 13-7 record - tied for the 13th most wins in baseball.

He did so despite pitching into the seventh inning just three times in 32 starts, as his command faltered at points during the year. It's easy to imagine just how good the former top prospect can be if he can harness his elite fastball and continue to cut down his walk rate and home runs allowed, both of which reached career lows in 2021.

The White Sox are the third-best team in baseball based on their preseason win total (93.5) and World Series price (+1100). The run support should be there for Cease if he can continue to put it all together. At 45-1, this is easily the best price on the board.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].