Best bets to lead MLB in stolen bases: Mondesi, Turner worth short price

Baseball is officially around the corner, and we've only broken down early odds for the MVP and Cy Young races in both leagues. Yet there is no shortage of futures bets to make ahead of MLB's return - including season leaders for every major statistical category.

Perhaps the most exciting of those (outside of maybe home runs) is the stolen bases market, which is all about projection and extrapolation given how few consistent base-stealers there are in today's game. Larger bases are coming soon, which means MLB thievery could be ticking up in the future, but this is still a narrow market to handicap until that changes.

With that said, here are the odds to lead baseball in stolen bases at Barstool Sportsbook, along with a few of our favorite early values:

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals (+250)

Starling Marte led MLB in stolen bases (47) a year ago, but that was only possible thanks to Mondesi missing nearly the entire season with various injuries. Yes, that's been the defining storyline of his career, but that hasn't stopped him from posting ridiculous numbers in the past, and he's as likely as any player on the board to do it again in 2022.

The Royals infielder led all of baseball with 24 steals in the 60-game season in 2021, which came after he posted 43 steals in just 102 games in 2019. His 114 steals since 2018 rank fourth in baseball despite him playing roughly half as many games as the top names on that list.

At his current rate, he would need to play in roughly 120 games to record 50 steals. Can he stay healthy for that many games? There's risk here, but it's a reasonable ask for baseball's purest base-stealer.

Trea Turner, Dodgers (+650)

There is so much to like about Turner in this market - track record, talent, situation - that it's a surprise he isn't priced in the top three on the oddsboard. The Dodgers star finished third in MLB in stolen bases last year despite missing 14 games, and he's stolen more bases (122) than any other player since his first 100-plus-game season in 2018.

He's recorded 430 "bolts" - a Statcast metric that tracks any run above 30 feet per second - in that span, nearly 2.5 times as many as the second-place finisher. He also led all of baseball in sprint speed (30.7 ft/sec) in 2021, 0.2 short of the fastest time by any player in the Statcast era.

Turner expressed a desire to run more last year after the Dodgers acquired him, and he subsequently set a franchise record with 16 stolen bases in the 2021 postseason. If that green light extends to the 2022 regular season, expect monster numbers from the speedy Turner.

Byron Buxton, Twins (+2800)

Because of how dominant the top base-stealers are in MLB, this market is all about taking volatile swings on players whose rate stats could translate to 40-plus steals if everything breaks right. Few players fit that bill more than Buxton.

First, the bad news: The oft-injured Twins star has played a combined 215 games over the past four seasons and stolen just 30 bases in that stretch. The good news? Buxton's stolen-base percentage (87.7%) ranks second in MLB history, and his peak sprint speed in his career (30.9 ft/sec) is the best in Statcast history.

Clearly, the talent and base-stealing acumen are there. Will the opportunity be? Buxton stole four bases in his final 12 games in 2021, which is the type of pace he'd need to maintain to lead the majors. It's a long shot, but few have a legitimate shot to cash in this market like Buxton can.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].