Best bets to lead MLB in runs: Acuna, Freeman in perfect spots to cash

With the baseball season starting in just a few weeks, we've been breaking down the best values in the MLB futures market. On Tuesday, we ran through the best bets to lead baseball in stolen bases, and we detailed the hits leader market on Wednesday.

This time, we'll be diving into one of the tougher markets to handicap: Who will lead MLB in runs? It takes not only an elite hitter but also an ideal situation to produce high totals in runs scored. Here are the odds to lead the majors in runs at Barstool Sportsbook, along with a few of our favorite early values:

Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (+1000)

Before suffering a torn ACL that prematurely ended his season in July, Acuna was on pace for not only a career season but an MVP-caliber one, too. The Braves' rising superstar scored 72 runs in just 82 games - good for a ridiculous 142-run pace. That would have shattered the top mark set by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (123) in 2021.

It wasn't a fluke start, either. Acuna led the NL in runs (127) in 2019, finishing third overall thanks in part to his league-best 37 stolen bases and 715 plate appearances. There are concerns about Acuna's ability to stay healthy for that many at-bats, naturally, but he looks healthy ahead of this season:

Losing Freddie Freeman hurts Acuna's chances of advancing along the base paths in the heart of Atlanta's order. But the 24-year-old is superb at generating runs himself via the long ball and aggressive base-stealing, and he's entering his physical prime after a near-MVP run. Buy, buy, buy.

Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (+1300)

How could you not like Freeman's chances here? The former Braves star led the NL and finished third overall in runs scored (120) in 2021, a year after pacing the majors with 51 runs in his shortened-season MVP campaign.

Now he'll be hitting in the heart of arguably MLB's most dangerous lineup - and the best collection of supporting talent in Freeman's 12-year career. That's a significant development, as Freeman has scored 100 or more runs in three of MLB's last five full-length seasons, a pace that would put him in contention this year.

His career high in runs scored last year was supported by a .300 average and .896 OPS - both of which are near his career averages. If Freeman puts up a merely average year by his standards, with a loaded Dodgers order around him, he'll still be near the very top of the leaderboard.

Rafael Devers, Red Sox (+2500)

Ah, the curious case of Devers. The Red Sox third baseman has been a bit of an enigma since entering the bigs in 2017, showing both flashes of greatness and puzzling stretches of inconsistency at the plate.

When he's on, though, Devers is as good as anyone. The 25-year-old finished second in the majors in runs scored (129) in 2019, trailing only former teammate Mookie Betts (135), but he fell apart early in that shortened 2020 season and never recovered. Then he showed those same flashes in 2021, hitting .294 through April and posting a .280 average from July 1 on.

Which Devers will we see in 2022? And, perhaps as importantly, will we see another dominant Red Sox lineup to put Devers in position to rack up runs? He's done it before, and at this price, it's worth betting on a repeat performance.

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].