With the baseball season starting in just a few weeks, we've been breaking down the best values in the MLB futures market. Last week, we dissected the top plays to lead the majors in stolen bases, hits, and runs, and we detailed the RBI market on Monday.
The strikeout market might be the most intriguing of them all. It's one of the most enticing to predict thanks to a host of advanced rate stats for projecting strikeout potential. But volume is key: each of the last eight MLB strikeout leaders finished in the top five in innings pitched.
Robbie Ray came seemingly out of nowhere in 2021 to win the strikeout crown, though his high whiff rate and career 11.2 K/9 - the highest in MLB history - suggested it was possible. Will we see another surprise winner in 2022?
Here are the odds to lead MLB in strikeouts at Barstool Sportsbook, along with a few of our favorite early values:
| PITCHER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | +400 |
| Jacob deGrom | +400 |
| Max Scherzer | +550 |
| Zack Wheeler | +800 |
| Robbie Ray | +900 |
| Corbin Burnes | +1100 |
| Dylan Cease | +1100 |
| Shane Bieber | +1300 |
| Lucas Giolito | +1300 |
| Justin Verlander | +1300 |
| Aaron Nola | +1600 |
| Chris Sale | +1600 |
| Walker Buehler | +2000 |
| Jack Flaherty | +2500 |
| Charlie Morton | +2500 |
| Brandon Woodruff | +2500 |
| Jose Berrios | +2800 |
| Blake Snell | +2800 |
| Luis Castillo | +3300 |
| Yu Darvish | +3300 |
| German Marquez | +4000 |
| Sandy Alcantara | +4000 |
| Lance Lynn | +4500 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | +4500 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | +5000 |
Jacob deGrom, Mets (+400)
I'm not usually one to target the favorite in any market as volatile as this one, which has seen 10 pitchers cash in the last 10 years and rewards those who can stay healthy for an entire season. Clearly, that's a knock against deGrom, who made just 15 starts a year ago before injuries ended his campaign early.
Are those issues behind him? This is his market to lose. The Mets superstar performed at another level in 2021, striking out nearly half of the batters he faced (45.1%) through 92 innings. He also boasted a career-high 14.3 K/9, which would have been the best in a single season in MLB history if he qualified for the leaderboard.
DeGrom would've finished with roughly 310 strikeouts had he pitched a full season at the same rate, beating Ray's mark by more than 60 punchouts. Betting on a repeat performance is a big ask, but if deGrom is even 80 to 90 percent of what we saw last year ... Watch out.
Corbin Burnes, Brewers (+1100)
In what world is Burnes the sixth-likeliest pitcher to lead the majors in strikeouts? The reigning NL Cy Young winner ranked fifth in punchouts (234) in 2021 despite finishing 32nd in innings pitched (167) because of a few missed starts early in the season.
His advanced stats were simply that ridiculous. The Brewers ace led all of baseball in K/9 (12.6), strikeout rate (35.6%), contact rate allowed (65.8%), swinging strike rate (16.6%), and CSW rate (33.8%). That's to say nothing of his MLB-best ERA (2.43) and FIP (1.63). How's that for a dominant season? Had he made a full 32 starts, he likely would have finished north of 265 strikeouts to complement his otherworldly resume.
And yet, Burnes finds himself priced outside of the top five in this market for ... what reason exactly? Last season was no fluke - Burnes boasted an even higher K/9 in 2019 (12.9) and 2020 (13.3) - and he's sure to be near the top of the leaderboard in 2022, as well.
Dylan Cease, White Sox (+1100)
If you're looking for a lesser-known name in this market, look no further than Cease, who turned heads last year with his elite strikeout numbers in his third season with the White Sox.
The former top prospect has always had nasty stuff, touching triple digits with his fastball in the minors. But he harnessed his natural talent last year to the tune of 226 strikeouts - seventh-most in MLB. Like Burnes, he posted ridiculous rate stats. Cease ranked second in K/9 (12.2) and contact rate (68.3%) but placed 36th in innings pitched (165.2), capping his upside in the strikeout market.
It wasn't an issue of durability. Cease started 32 games for Chicago but pitched into the seventh inning just three times all season. However, he allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of his last seven starts with a wicked 14.4 K/9 in that stretch, which bodes well for his potential workload in his age-26 season.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].
