As the calendar flipped to December, the Colorado Avalanche were completely and utterly lost; mired at the bottom of the NHL standings and primed for yet another discouraging season.
The Avalanche entered the third month of the campaign sitting just one point up on dead last in the league. Sporting a record of 9-14-1, they were surrounded by constant speculation about the future of their head coach, and even their star players.
The direction of the team moving forward was surely hanging in the balance. But that was then, this is now.
Since Dec. 1, the Avalanche have put together a stunning 18-8-2 stretch - fourth best in the league over the past two months behind the Washington Capitals, Chicago Blackhawks and Florida Panthers - to find themselves in a wild-card spot at the All-Star break.
Colorado's play is even more impressive considering a 12-4-2 record against teams that currently occupy a playoff position. So how have the Avalanche vaulted themselves from a likely lottery pick to a sudden contender?
Varlamov among league's best since Dec. 1
The Avalanche's rise in the standings is in direct correlation to Semyon Varlamov's emergence in the crease.
Since entering December with a disappointing 5-7-1 record, Varlamov has turned his season around in a big way. He has posted a 14-5-2 record - highlighted by a .934 save percentage - in his last 21 games.
His last four starts in particular illustrate the team's turnaround.
FIRST STAR: Varlamov went 4-0-0 last week (0.99 GAA, .972 SV%) to lift @Avalanche (26-21-3, 55 pts) into first Wild Card spot in the West.
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) January 25, 2016
Varlamov picked up four consecutive wins, allowing just one goal per game while facing an average of 35.5 shots. Colorado scored just nine goals in those four games, requiring a third-period goal in three of them en route to victory.
The 27-year-old's strong play has allowed a highly-skilled team to remain patient, pick its spots, and capitalize on a minimal number of scoring chances.
Opportunistic scoring
The Avalanche do not drive puck possession, sitting last in the league with a 44.1 even strength Corsi For rating. Their scoring opportunities do not come easy, but their 7.8 on-ice shooting percentage illustrates that they're certainly making the most of them. This isn't anything new.
When the Avalanche made the playoffs in 2013-14 despite sitting near the bottom of the league in Corsi, they finished second with an 8.8 on-ice shooting percentage. They're headed on a very similar path this season.
They essentially believe in a "race to three" mentality. Since Dec. 1, the Avalanche have lost just two games in regulation when scoring at least three goals. Additionally, they're 10-2-1 in one-goal games. It's evident that their lack of puck possession does not hinder their ability to keep the game close.
Related - VIDEO: MacKinnon's last-minute goal sets up Avalanche shootout win
Colorado understands its strengths. It executes a style of play that may never be dominating, but with a reliance on limiting second-chance opportunities in front of Varlamov's impressive goaltending, it is very rarely out of a game.
With a highly skilled young core of Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, and Tyson Barrie, in addition to reliable veterans Jarome Iginla, Carl Soderberg, Francois Beauchemin, and Erik Johnson, the Avalanche are very capable of pouncing on their opportunities, even if they're minimal.
Much like they did in 2013-14, Colorado has bought into this mentality as a group, and it's seeing the results once again this year.
- Advanced stats courtesy war-on-ice
