Analysis of Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

Our hockey writers share their observations and insights throughout Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Sunday, May 3

Habs serve notice with Game 7 triumph

It wasn't pretty, but we may look back on the Canadiens' gutsy 2-1 road victory on Sunday as the definitive changing-of-the-guard moment in a transitioning Atlantic Division. The youthful and ascendant Montreal side outlasted two-time Stanley Cup champ and longtime contender Tampa Bay in Game 7.

The Canadiens failed to record a single shot on goal for the entire second period and finished on the wrong end of a 29-9 shot counter. Their goals were borderline flukey - the first a double deflection off a point shot, and the winner a whacking goal-line hope play by Alex Newhook.

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Yet Montreal deserves to advance and face the Sabres starting Wednesday because it executed better in what was truly a game of inches on Sunday.

Rookie goalie Jakub Dobes was exceptionally sharp, squaring up to Lightning shooters all night en route to 28 saves. Defenseman and highest-paid player Noah Dobson had several key defensive stops in his first game since April 11. The Nick Suzuki forward line and Mike Matheson-Alexandre Carrier defense pairing rendered Lightning winger Nikita Kucherov - the most talented player on either team by a wide margin - completely ineffective in his 20 minutes.

What a series. All seven games were decided by one goal and four needed overtime, leading to 440 of the series' 445 total minutes being played with either the score tied or one team holding a one-goal lead. The deeper team emerged victorious. - John Matisz

Friday, May 1

'Big Cat' saves best for do-or-die Game 6

Of course we're getting a Game 7. It was always going to be this way.

Little known Lightning winger Gage Goncalves played hero nine minutes into overtime Friday as Tampa Bay outlasted the Canadiens in Game 6 of the first round's most entertaining series. While Goncalves deserves credit for outmuscling a Montreal defender at the netfront before whacking the puck past the goal line, netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy was the real story of the night.

Vasilevskiy saved a ridiculous 3.45 goals above expected, according to Natural Stat Trick. His finest sequence came in the dying minutes of the second period. The man they call "Big Cat" used his elite athleticism and flexibility to sprawl across his crease and deny an Ivan Demidov scoring chance. He then gloved a second Demidov high-danger shot on the rebound.

Montreal will be in tough Sunday. For one, Tampa has the benefit of last change. Also: Vasilevskiy thrives in Game 7s, posting a .945 save percentage and 1.51 goals against average in four career contests. - John Matisz

Sabres continue Eastern Conference climb

The Sabres wagon keeps chugging along.

Buffalo, the winningest team in the second half of the regular season, has won a playoff series for the first time since 2007. The Lindy Ruff-coached squad defeated a flawed Bruins team 4-1 in Game 6 on Friday to advance to Round 2. A much stiffer test - Montreal or Tampa Bay - is coming.

In typical 2025-26 Sabres fashion, the series victory was an all-around effort.

Ten skaters scored, with Alex Tuch and Bowen Byram leading the charge with three goals apiece. Dogged youngsters Josh Doan, Zach Benson, and Noah Ostlund (three games played) were territorially dominant. The blue line played well at both ends. And goalie Alex Lyon turned aside 81 of 85 shots after relieving Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in the third period of Game 2. - John Matisz

Thursday, April 30

Oilers go out with a whimper

Edmonton showed flashes of being back-to-back Western Conference champions in Round 1, but Game 6 against Anaheim showed this iteration of the Oilers was never close to being a Stanley Cup contender. Everyone expected Edmonton to turn it on for the playoffs after an uninspiring regular season, but this version was outclassed by a faster, younger, and hungrier Ducks squad.

In their season finale, the Oilers didn't draw a penalty, were outshot, outhit, and took an egregious too-many-men minor. They simply weren't ready for the moment, which hasn't been the case the past two springs. The Ducks deserve all the credit for their Round 1 performance. They dominated at five-on-five, boasted a red-hot power play, and their stars shined at every position. Anaheim looks like a threat in the West for years to come, but make no mistake, this series will be solely be remembered as another wasted year for the McDavid-era Oilers.

The captain's two-year extension signified a clear window for contention, but there's plenty of work to be done to fix this roster. The Oilers still don't have any stability in goal, lack depth on the back end, and only have nine forwards signed for next season. The pressure on Edmonton to win a championship will be immense as long as McDavid is on the payroll, but the club's severely underwhelming playoff performance will ratchet up the noise significantly this summer. - Sean O'Leary

Series win an exclamation point on Hughes acquisition

The trade for Quinn Hughes had worked wonders for the Wild ahead of Thursday night's Game 6. A loss to the Stars wouldn't have changed anyone's opinion on the December blockbuster that sent one of the NHL's best defensemen from Vancouver to Minnesota for four premium assets.

Yet, the Wild's 5-2 series-clinching victory put an exclamation point on it.

Hughes was simply terrific in 28:55. He scored the opening and winning goals - the latter of which included a crafty bank shot off an unsuspecting Dallas player's skate - and added a primary assist while controlling the flow of play. This is Hughes' team as much as it is Kirill Kaprizov's and Matt Boldy's. And now Minnesota's off to the second round for the first time since 2015.

Goalie Jesper Wallstedt was outstanding and the Wild's defensively responsible skater group managed to outscore the Stars at even strength by a whopping 14 goals (19-5). Dallas winger Mikko Rantanen, an absolute beast last postseason, was somehow held off the scoresheet in 94 five-on-five minutes. - John Matisz

3 ways Stars can force Game 7 vs. Wild

Down 3-2 to Minnesota heading into Thursday night's Game 6, Dallas needs to find its five-on-five touch ASAP. The Stars have scored just three goals in the series' 268 five-on-five minutes and none since the first period of Game 3.

Here are a few ways Dallas can force a Game 7.

Mikko Rantanen outburst: One of the NHL's premier power forwards has pitched in six points in five games. But the big Finn hasn't looked like his usual playoff-hero self, recording a measly six quality scoring chances in all situations, according to Sportlogiq. Teammates Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston have racked up 20 and 13 chances, respectively.

Crash the net: The Stars are producing a ton of shot attempts (fifth-most per game among 16 playoff teams), shots on goal (fifth), and slot shots (fourth) while leading in offensive zone puck possession time per game. But the club isn't so successful when it comes to chances generated off rebounds (11th). Dallas needs to get more bodies in front of and around Wild goalie Jesper Wallstedt.

Dominate depth minutes: Defenseman Jonas Brodin, who's logged 19:41 a night for Minnesota, has been ruled out for Game 6 after suffering an injury Tuesday. Veteran Jeff Petry is taking his place. A plodding Zach Bogosian-Petry pairing will be vulnerable against Dallas' bottom six. - John Matisz

Utah learning playoff lessons the hard way

The Vegas-Utah series is tight: The Golden Knights are up 3-2 off an 18-17 edge in goals. The Mammoth have been the better even-strength team, while the Knights have been more disciplined and more effective on special teams.

The Mammoth's inability to protect late leads is holding them back. The Andre Tourigny-coached squad entered the third period of Game 1 up 2-1, then allowed three straight goals to lose 4-2. Utah grabbed a 4-3 lead with 14:50 left in regulation in Game 4, only to allow a Vegas goal five minutes later to force overtime and another one 19 minutes into OT. In Wednesday's Game 5, the Mammoth led 4-3 with 7:18 left in the third, the Golden Knights scored with 53 seconds remaining, and then Utah lost a heart-breaker in the second overtime period.

The late-night Game 5 winner came off a turnover deep in Utah's zone. Vegas' aggressive penalty kill had overwhelmed the No. 2 power play unit.

Maybe this is an oversimplification, but from afar, experience appears to be playing a major role in the outcome of these games. Vegas, an old and battle-tested group, isn't wilting in the gut-check moments. Utah, with the top of its lineup filled with first- and second-time playoff performers, is finding out the hard way what it takes to close out games in the postseason.

Salt Lake City's Delta Center will be electric Friday for Game 6. - John Matisz

Wednesday, April 29

Was this Pittsburgh's last postseason with Crosby, Malkin, and Letang?

It's entirely possible the Pittsburgh Penguins' season-ending loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Wednesday was the last time we see the illustrious trio of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang share the ice in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Crosby and Letang are signed through next season and aren't going anywhere, but Malkin is a pending unrestricted free agent. Malkin, 39, has not committed to playing in the NHL next season. This could've been the last game of his career.

Even if Malkin does return for another year, it's far from guaranteed Pittsburgh will be back in the postseason. The veteran trio will be another year older. The rest of the core is getting up there, too: Erik Karlsson will be 36 next season, Bryan Rust will be 34, and Rickard Rakell will be 33.

There was also a certain degree of magic that followed the Penguins around this season, with journeymen like Anthony Mantha, Justin Brazeau, Ryan Shea, and Parker Wotherspoon all enjoying out-of-nowhere career years.

President of hockey operations and general manager Kyle Dubas is clearly intent on setting up the Penguins as best as he can for the future rather than maximizing whatever window remains with the veteran core. In other words, don't expect any win-now trades or lucrative long-term deals to top free agents this offseason in service of a "Last Dance."

It was fun to see Crosby, Malkin, and Letang in the playoffs again after a three-year hiatus. But going out in six games - and getting shut out in the final game - despite a favorable draw against the conference's No. 8 seed is an unfortunate potential final act. - Josh Wegman

Danault, Evans are Montreal's unsung heroes in Game 5

Jakub Dobes will deservingly get heaps of praise for outplaying Andrei Vasilevskiy with a 38-save performance in Game 5, but the Montreal Canadiens' center depth was paramount in the victory.

Phillip Danault and Jake Evans were particularly brilliant, even though neither recorded a point.

Danault logged 19:40 - second-most among Montreal forwards - and was on the ice for the final 3:31 of regulation as the Canadiens closed out the nail-biting win. He won 60% of his faceoffs, too.

Evans was on the ice for just one scoring chance against in 15:14 of action, per Natural Stat Trick. He won a staggering 85.7% of his faceoffs.

Both Evans and Danault played crucial roles in Montreal's penalty kill going a perfect 3-for-3.

Montreal's center depth behind Nick Suzuki has been the team's perceived weakness most of the season, but that certainly wasn't the case Wednesday. - Josh Wegman

Vasilevskiy historically great in Game 5s

History shows that the longer a series goes, the better Andrei Vasilevskiy gets. The Tampa Bay Lightning netminder enters Wednesday's pivotal tilt against the Montreal Canadiens with a 12-6 record, a .930 save percentage, and a 1.99 goals-against average in 18 career Game 5s. He's been even more effective in Game 6s (.933 save percentage) and Game 7s (.945 save percentage).

Vasilevskiy has been extremely average so far in Round 1, and that's being generous. He owns an .882 save percentage in the series while stopping 0.56 goals above expected, per Evolving-Hockey. However, it's very possible his best performances have yet to come. - Josh Wegman

Peterka, Doan going in opposite directions

The Sabres and Mammoth made a fun two-for-one trade last June. Michael Kesselring and Josh Doan headed to Buffalo, and JJ Peterka landed in Utah. As part of the deal, Peterka signed a five-year, $38.5-million extension.

At the time, Peterka was the hottest commodity among the three players. The dynamic winger, then 23, had just broken out for 68 points in 77 games in his third season. He looked like a perfect fit for a fast, skilled team like Utah.

Oh, what a difference 10 months can make.

Peterka's regular-season ice time was slashed by two minutes a game in his first season with the Mammoth, and he's currently in coach Andre Tourigny's doghouse. The German's played poorly throughout the club's opening-round series against Vegas, and a high-sticking penalty in Monday's Game 4 resulted in a full-on benching. Peterka didn't take a single shift in the back half of the third period or during 19 minutes of overtime action, and he's healthy.

"I had a discussion with JJ, and that discussion will stay inside our room," Tourigny told reporters Tuesday.

While the oft-injured Kesselring was supposed to be the key acquisition for Buffalo, Doan's the one flourishing. The detail-oriented winger has become one of the Sabres' most important players as well as a dressing-room leader. The 24-year-old inked a seven-year, $48.65-million extension in January.

The son of ex-NHLer Shane Doan recorded 25 goals and 52 points in the regular season. In five playoff games, he's made his mark alongside Zach Benson and Noah Ostlund (currently injured) on a territorially dominant third line. Utah sure could use Doan's well-roundedness right now. - John Matisz

Tuesday, April 28

Oilers' big guns show up - including McDavid

The Edmonton Oilers needed their best players to show up with their season on the line, and they delivered. In the case of Connor McDavid, who was a game-time decision, they literally needed him to show up. He did that and more, notching a pair of assists in a season-saving 4-1 win while logging 24:09 - more than any forward in the game. The ice time is a notable development considering McDavid played an unusually low 19:32 in a Game 4 overtime loss while laboring through some sort of lower-body ailment.

The rest of Edmonton's core also produced: Leon Draisaitl scored a pair of goals, Evan Bouchard had three assists, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a pair of helpers.

But the most important development of this game for Edmonton - perhaps other than Connor Ingram turning aside 29 of 30 shots - was McDavid looking more like himself. - Josh Wegman

Pastrnak's execution saves Bruins' season

The Sabres are significantly deeper than the Bruins on paper, and the talent imbalance has bore out over the course of the Atlantic Division series.

Still, only one team has David Pastrnak at its disposal.

Boston's superstar winger, mostly unremarkable through the first four games, provided a signature moment nine minutes into overtime in Tuesday's Game 5 for the 2-1 victory. Streaking down the middle lane, Pastrnak corralled a stretch pass from defenseman Hampus Lindholm at the offensive blue line, deked left at the hashmarks, cut right, then tucked the puck past Sabres goalie Alex Lyon.

It was Pastrnak's first goal since Game 1, and first off the rush overall despite shaking loose for a handful of breakaways or partial breaks in the series. He's up to six points in five games, though it feels like he's only getting started.

Boston's edge is star power. Pastrnak is the series' most talented forward and Jeremy Swayman is its most talented goalie. Both can take over games or execute a specific play at a very high level. Both have stepped up, and the underdog Bruins are still alive. Game 6 goes Friday in Boston. - John Matisz

Do Sabres possess killer instinct?

The largely inexperienced Buffalo Sabres have looked ready for the playoff spotlight thus far, building a 3-1 series lead over the Boston Bruins. However, the pressure to close out a series is an entirely different beast. We've seen how difficult that can be for a young team already this postseason, with the Philadelphia Flyers dropping two straight against the veteran Pittsburgh Penguins after jumping out to a 3-0 series lead.

The Bruins are not completely different than the Penguins. Guys like David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy have been in moments like this. They've found another gear when they've had their backs against the wall (See: 2019 vs. Maple Leafs).

Boston will presumably bring its very best with its season on the line. Can Buffalo answer? How the Sabres respond to the added tension could tell us a lot about this group. - Josh Wegman

McDavid's status a bad omen for Oilers

The vibes just went from bad to worse in Edmonton.

Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch labeled captain Connor McDavid and center Jason Dickinson as "game-time decisions" ahead of Tuesday night's Game 5. Edmonton trails Anaheim 3-1 after coughing up a third-period lead and then allowing the game-winning goal a few shifts into overtime in Game 4.

McDavid briefly left Game 2 with an apparent leg or foot injury. Clearly still feeling the effects of the ailment, McDavid didn't look right in Game 4 (despite recording two assists). He finished sixth among Oilers skaters in ice time.

Jackson LaCombe, the Ducks' slick-skating two-way defenseman, has done a terrific job reining in McDavid throughout the series. The Oilers have been outscored 5-2 in McDavid's 69 minutes at five-on-five - not a recipe for success.

If McDavid doesn't dress or proves to be a nonfactor in Game 5, the Ducks will be in complete control. The poorly constructed Oilers rely way too much on McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to generate offense, and it's infinitely easier to shut down one of them if the other isn't contributing. - John Matisz

Stars controlling play in series vs. Wild

The Stars-Wild series is tied 2-2 heading into Tuesday's Game 5. While the series has been tight, anybody paying attention will know the Stars have looked like the better team overall. The underlying numbers back up the eye test.

Dallas has generated far more quality scoring chances thanks to a potent power play and effective even-strength cycles and forechecks. The totals, according to Sportlogiq: 51 quality chances for the Stars, 37 for the Wild.

Jason Robertson has been dynamite. Leading the series with four goals and 23 shots, the Stars winger is consistently firing pucks from the most dangerous area of the offensive zone. He's recorded 12 inner-slot shots, or 52% of Minnesota's total as a team (23).

Meanwhile, the Stars' defense has limited the Wild to 3.2 scoring chances off the rush per game (down from six in the regular season) and 0.5 chances off rebounds (down from 2.2).

So why isn't this series 3-1 for Dallas? Simply put, the Wild's top players have delivered in gut-check moments. Goalie Jesper Wallstedt and forwards Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy have been just clutch enough. - John Matisz

Past analysis

Check out all our archived items from previous days here.

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