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Target Fox, fade McDavid in Game 2s of conference finals

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The first game of each Conference series is behind us, meaning we have more data and matchup knowledge to work with.

We'll look to put that to use with some plays for a pair of Game 2s.

Matthew Tkachuk: Under 3.5 shots

Tkachuk has a very rocky shooting history against the Rangers. He's averaged just 4.6 shot attempts over his last nine games and has a ceiling of six. That doesn't give him much margin for error to clear this number.

Although Tkachuk found the back of the net in Game 1, he fared no better with his shot generation. He attempted only three shots, and his goal was the only time he hit the target.

The Rangers have allowed 28 or fewer shots in all but one home playoff game. They're trying to take the juice out of games, which won't help Tkachuk's cause.

Whether the Rangers rebound from a disappointing Game 1 or not, I don't expect to see much shot volume from Tkachuk.

Odds: -140 (playable to -160)

Adam Fox: Over 1.5 shots

Fox has recorded multiple shots in 49 of 82 games this season, good for a healthy 60% success rate. He's also gone over his total in three of four games against the Panthers, producing 10 shots in that time (2.5 per).

Fox played just under 25 minutes in Game 1, a mark he's likely going to flirt with every game for as long as the Rangers continue playing.

That's certainly worth noting - Fox's hit rate unsurprisingly goes up the more ice time he gets.

Fox produced two or more shots in 31 of 45 games in which he logged at least 24 minutes of ice. That equates to a remarkable 69% success rate.

Given Fox's recent shooting surge (he has two-plus shots in 20 of the past 30), his success against the Panthers, and the likelihood he gets huge minutes as the Rangers fight to avoid going down 0-2 at home, I quite like his chances of picking up multiple shots in this game.

Odds: -140 (playable to -160)

Parlay: McDavid under 3.5 shots with Stars +1.5 goals

This parlay didn't result in a Game 1 win as McDavid cleared his shooting line. He finished with exactly four shots, though, despite the game going to double overtime. As fate would have it, it was the last shot of the game in which McDavid recorded his fourth shot.

McDavid averaged just 2.9 shots per game on 5.1 attempts over his last 15 on the road.

He needed over 27 minutes of ice to hit four shots in the series opener. Barring overtime (again), he's likely to finish in the 22-23 minute range next time out.

For perspective, McDavid's hit rate is only 31% this season when playing 23 or fewer minutes. That number drops to 16% on the road - he's cleared in only five of 31 instances. Yes, you're reading that correctly.

The Stars are an elite defensive team and can't afford to drop the first two games at home. I expect them to tighten the screws even further and, if the game ends in regulation, keep McDavid under this number.

The odds for McDavid's under are juiced so I like adding the Stars on an alternate puckline of +1.5 goals to bring this close to even money. The Stars have covered +1.5 (meaning they've either won or lost by a single goal) in 11 of 14 playoff games.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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