NHL Tuesday player props: Can a line change spark slumping Matthews?
We are coming off a disappointing 1-2 night with our props. Aleksander Barkov got the job done against the Senators to get us started. Unfortunately, neither Vincent Trocheck nor Jack Eichel stayed under the number to earn us a winning night.
We'll look to rebound with three more props for Tuesday night's card.
Nico Hischier over 2.5 shots
Hischier is a home cooker. Despite receiving the most difficult defensive assignments from head coach Lindy Ruff, he consistently generates shots at a high rate on home ice.
His success rate is 10% higher when playing in New Jersey than it is on the road dating back to the beginning of last season.
I like his chances of continuing that trend against the Islanders. They have struggled defensively all season long and allowed more shots per game than all but the Sharks over the last 10.
Hischier has a strong track record against the Islanders. He has registered at least three shots in four of his past five against New York, attempting seven shots - and hitting the target only once - in the lone exception.
Hischier also has ideal linemates to generate shots. He is centering Ondrej Palat (two goals, eight assists) and Jesper Bratt (eight goals, 17 assists). Those are both pass-happy wingers who would rather create for others than themselves.
Look for Hischier, who has averaged more than 20 attempts per 60 minutes (a very strong number) when playing with those two, to put a few pucks on net.
Odds: -134 (playable to -150)
Auston Matthews over 4.5 shots
Matthews is currently in a big drought offensively, especially by his standards. He has gone under his shot total in seven consecutive games and found the scoresheet in only two of them.
In an effort to jumpstart the star center, Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe has opted to move William Nylander up to the top line in place of the struggling Mitch Marner. That should greatly benefit Matthews.
Matthews and Marner are often the duo Keefe goes with, but the former has actually been drastically more productive alongside Nylander.
Since the beginning of last season, Matthews has averaged 3.34 points per 60 minutes of five-on-five play (540-minute sample) while riding shotgun with Nylander. He has managed just 2.21 points per 60 with Marner (787-minute sample).
Although Matthews hasn't spent a ton of time with Nylander this year, his rate of generating points and shots is higher with him than it is with No. 16.
Matthews is averaging noticeably more volume at home (8.8 attempts per game versus 7.2 on the road) and should see a spark playing alongside the team's leading producer this season. Look for him to be active offensively against a Panthers team in the latter half of a road back-to-back.
Odds: +120 (playable to -125)
Kyle Connor over 3.5 shots
The Stars don't provide the best matchup on paper. They are a very strong team that tends to play slower-paced games to suck the life out of opposing offenses. They haven't done much of that away from home, though.
Dallas has conceded 34.9 shots per game on the road. That is the fourth-highest mark in the league, better than only the Senators, Sharks, and Islanders.
If the Jets are going to see anywhere close to that kind of volume, it's good news for Connor. Their shot outputs are heavily concentrated towards him.
He has recorded 82 shots on goal through 20 games, which is more than four per outing. The next closest Jet is Nino Niederreiter at 53. That is a massive gap.
This game should be close and competitive, which means the Jets will be spoon-feeding Connor ice time and funnelling pucks his way.
Odds: +100 (playable to -125)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.