NFL MVP betting: Can Hurts win after runner-up campaign?

Patrick Mahomes is the reigning MVP and favorite to repeat in 2023. He's the undisputed best player in football, having already cemented himself as a future Hall of Famer, but that doesn't always equate to having the best season.

Four of the last five MVP winners have been either Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers. Lamar Jackson captured the fifth. Although Rodgers did it in 2020 and 2021, winning back-to-back MVPs is a rarity. It hadn't happened since Peyton Manning's feat in 2008-09. Fading Mahomes' greatness usually ends in regret, but history says a new winner is coming.

The next three favorites - Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts - have been knocking on the door of an MVP season. Hurts finished second in MVP voting last year. Allen finished third, and Burrow finished fourth. So, who among them is the next MVP?

The unofficial requirements are that the winner must be a quarterback - only one non-QB has won in the last 16 years - and must lead his team to one of the best records. He also needs to be among the top of the league in most relevant statistical categories.

NFL regular season MVP odds

Best Bets

Jalen Hurts +1000

Hurts had a legitimate claim to the MVP last season if he hadn't got hurt in the final weeks of the season. Picking the Eagles to win the Super Bowl - like I did - is also betting on Hurts to have another monster season.

The former second-round pick has improved every season he's been in the league. Many of Hurts' detractors think his success is more about his supporting cast than his actual talent. But that's mostly irrelevant to his MVP campaign because his incredible offensive teammates are still in Philadelphia.

There isn't a better wide receiver duo in the NFL than A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Pair those weapons with tight end Dallas Goedert and Hurts once again has options all over the field.

Philadelphia also has the best offensive line in football, according to PFF. Some of the other candidates like Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson are dual-threat quarterbacks, but not as dynamic with their legs as Hurts, who led all quarterbacks with 13 rushing touchdowns last year.

He was fourth in total touchdowns and ninth in total yards but played fewer games than everyone ahead of him. Hurts' instinctual gift and aggressive nature can also be his greatest weaknesses. Because of how much he runs, he's more susceptible to injury - which manifested itself last season when he hurt his shoulder.

If Hurts can stay healthy for a full campaign, he'll certainly be in contention. The MVP is almost always on one of the best teams in football, at least record-wise. The Eagles fit the bill, with the most complete roster in football and the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl.

This is the Eagles' year for runner-up redemption, both in the MVP race and in the Super Bowl.

Trevor Lawrence +1600

Anyone who's been following us throughout the NFL preseason knows I'm the conductor of the Trevor Lawrence hype train.

People questioned whether Lawrence could be a bust after his first year in the league. However, that year should be erased from the record books with a beyond-incompetent Urban Meyer running the show.

From Year 1 to Year 2, Lawrence more than doubled his touchdowns, cut his interceptions in half, threw almost 500 more yards on fewer attempts, and increased his completion percentage by 7%.

Head coach Doug Pederson's brilliance working with quarterbacks was a huge reason for the drastic turnaround. Pederson turned Carson Wentz into an MVP candidate in their second year paired together. He's about to do the same with Lawrence.

The Clemson standout needs to improve his decision making, but as he enters his third year in the league, there shouldn't be any concern as he continues to grow.

The Jaguars lost to the Chiefs in the divisional round in 2022-23, a massive improvement from a three-win effort the season prior.

Even in a loaded AFC, Jacksonville has the talent to earn a top seed in the conference, especially in a weak division. Lawrence has surrounding playmakers in running back Travis Etienne Jr., wide receiver Christian Kirk, and newly-acquired Calvin Ridley.

Lawrence is on a trajectory to become the generational talent he was praised to be as a prospect at Clemson. This is the season he enters the conversation as one of the NFL's best quarterbacks. As the ninth favorite at 16-1 odds, Lawrence is a great value bet.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formally known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.