Clear-eyed view of Gaudreau stunner, plus other offseason observations
As the hockey world waits for news on high-profile unrestricted free agents Nazem Kadri and John Klingberg - and many, many other UFAs - theScore's John Matisz checks in with some analysis on a wild start to the offseason.
Gaudreau deal reveals human side
Let's discuss Johnny Gaudreau and the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Putting aside the on-ice component for a moment, the big-picture takeaway for me is that too often we - media, fans, really anyone not in an NHL player's camp or NHL front office - lose sight of the fact that players are human beings. Humans are complicated creatures, which means the factors we value in the unrestricted free agent courting process may not perfectly align with those of the player.
The typical factors include money and term, market appeal, proximity to home, connections to staff, and window to contend. After Gaudreau turned down huge money and term (eight years, $10.5 million per season) from the Calgary Flames, reports suggested the 115-point winger would sign with a team out east. It was labeled a "family decision." This led us to believe the New Jersey native would join the nearby Devils, Philadelphia Flyers, or New York Islanders, with all three clubs presumed to be offering giant contracts.
Gaudreau then stunned the hockey world by inking an under-market deal (seven years, $9.75 million per) with the low-key Blue Jackets, a franchise that's, let's face it, endured a relatively anonymous existence. Columbus is an eight-hour drive from Gaudreau's hometown, the contract isn't anything special, the weather's fine, there are no connections to staff, and the team isn't overly competitive at the moment. In other words, committing to the Blue Jackets to close out his prime didn't make a ton of sense on the surface.
Then we learned it wasn't one or two factors that convinced Gaudreau to put pen to paper. Instead, it was the overall fit - or a blend of many factors, from being "a little closer" to Jersey and his pregnant wife signing off on the city and lifestyle to the potential of the roster and familiarity with a few players, including longtime friend Eric Robinson. And although the contract didn't set any records, Gaudreau's still getting plenty of coin and security. We can't forget he's a shy, chill person, so the smaller-market feel is a positive, too.
Man, the decision sure adds up once the player explains himself, doesn't it?
These players don't owe anybody anything when they become unrestricted. They've earned the right to choose their next destination. The team and city they ultimately pick can be obvious to the public, random, or somewhere in between. Because it's their process, and we're not in their head.
Who's to say Johnny Hockey can't be to Columbus what Artemi Panarin has been for the New York Rangers - the marquee UFA signed mid-rebuild? It's working out pretty well for Panarin and the Rangers right now.
League-wide offseason trends ... so far
The opening day of free agency was a whopper.
According to PuckPedia, teams spent $927 million in total contract value and $279 million in total cap hit on Wednesday alone. Both of those figures are higher than opening days in 2021, 2020, and even 2019, the year prior to the pandemic turning the world upside down and, in turn, flattening the salary cap.
Though Wednesday's flood slowed to a trickle Thursday and Friday, deals were still being filed. Let's take a look at three macro trends from this week.
1. Salary cap flexibility remains a general manager's best friend
For years now, smart NHL GMs have left room between the lower and upper limits of the salary cap to bail out cap-strapped teams in exchange for draft picks and prospects or to keep their own books tidy for future business.
In the early days of the 2022 offseason, the Carolina Hurricanes, Detroit Red Wings, and Ottawa Senators have all weaponized cap space in some way.
The Hurricanes acquired 2017 Norris Trophy winner Brent Burns and 66% of his cap hit in a five-piece trade with the San Jose Sharks. GM Don Waddell then took six-time 30-goal scorer Max Pacioretty and promising young defenseman Dylan Coghlan off the Vegas Golden Knights' hands for "future considerations." (Yes, the Hurricanes gained two quality NHLers for no cost.)
Carolina doesn't make those moves if Waddell isn't one or two steps ahead.
"They traded (Tony) DeAngelo. They let (Nino) Niederreiter go to market. They let (Vincent) Trocheck go, too. So all of a sudden they had all of this cap space," said Hart Levine, who runs PuckPedia. "They basically got Burns for free and at a $5.28-million hit. Who wouldn't want Burns at that number? Then they trade for Pacioretty and Coghlan - for free. That's pretty good work."
Added Levine: "It just goes to show that teams have assets as in players, assets as in draft picks, and assets as in cap space. It seems simple and obvious, but a lot of teams just don't think of it that way."
Steve Yzerman sure thinks that way. The Red Wings GM sat tight during the previous three offseasons, refusing to burden the organization with unnecessary contracts. Finally ready to insulate his young core with veteran NHLers, Yzerman has added goalie Ville Husso, forwards Andrew Copp, Dominik Kubalik, and David Perron, and defensemen Ben Chiarot, Olli Maatta, and Mark Pysyk since the draft. His restraint in the past allowed him to pounce this year and beat out rival GMs handcuffed by cap issues.
Senators GM Pierre Dorion used the trade market and free agency to load up on forwards Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux, as well as goalie Cam Talbot. The franchise has the local market buzzing.
"It's nice to see them ninth in cap space, not near the top where they've been for years," Levine said of the respectable $71.7 million the Senators already have earmarked for 2022-23.
2. Barely any six- or seven-year deals signed by UFAs
The longest a UFA who hits the open market can sign for is seven years. Since Wednesday, only two players - Gaudreau and Trocheck - have locked in for the max term, and not a single UFA has signed for six years. For context, six contracts containing six- or seven-year terms were signed in the first three days of free agency in 2021. (Mind you, the first three days of 2020 played out like 2022; just two deals.)
3. Large, rugged defenseman market still booming
The following UFA defensemen received four-year deals: Chiarot ($4.75 million AAV), Josh Manson ($4.5M AAV), Matt Benning ($1.25M AAV), and Erik Gudbranson ($4M AAV). Jan Rutta, Nikita Zadorov, Ilya Lybushkin, and Brendan Smith also inked multi-year contracts. All eight are big, physical dudes. Despite reports of their demise, the rugged defenseman lives on - and well.
Attention shifts to Western Conference
Eastern Conference teams have absolutely owned the last couple of weeks. The rest of the offseason could be heavy on Western Conference content.
In Colorado, Nathan MacKinnon is eligible to sign an extension. The superstar center, whose bargain seven-year deal expires next summer, is reportedly in talks with Avs management. Since the Stanley Cup Final, the Avs have re-signed Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, Darren Helm, Andrew Cogliano, and Manson and traded for Alexandar Georgiev. Meanwhile, Darcy Kuemper, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, and (maybe, probably) Kadri have left for other clubs.
"On my next deal," MacKinnon told Forbes in 2019, "I'll take less again. Because I want to win with this group." Now that he's won a Cup, how does MacKinnon feel? Will he take a hometown discount or still try to cash in?
In Calgary, arbitration-eligible restricted free-agent forward Matthew Tkachuk remains unsigned. Tkachuk received a $9-million qualifying offer from the Flames earlier this week. Moving forward, the 104-point man can sign a long-term deal and possibly be named team captain, sign a one-year contract and walk straight into 2023 free agency as a UFA, or accept a spicy offer sheet from another team.
JT Miller's on top of mind in Vancouver as the 99-point center nears the final year of a bargain deal paying him $5.25 million annually. Trade rumors have swirled around Miller for months, though Canucks GM Patrick Allvin said Wednesday he's not in a rush to swap Miller and may re-up him.
Blake Wheeler's a question mark in Winnipeg. Daily Faceoff reported earlier this month that the Jets are exploring the trade market on their captain. Wheeler would be difficult to move, given he's well past his prime and has two years left on a deal carrying a $8.25-million AAV and modified no-trade clause.
Something to cheer for in Chicago
If it wasn't obvious heading into July, it is now - the Chicago Blackhawks have opted for a scorched-earth rebuild. Twenty-somethings DeBrincat, Kubalik, Kirby Dach, and Dylan Strome are all gone. Patrick Kane might be next.
This excavation has left one of the NHL's top fan bases with little to cheer for.
Enter Jalen Luypen, a late-round find who's on the verge of signing a three-year entry-level contract with the Blackhawks. The fiery forward likely won't see NHL ice for a couple of years, but there's no doubt he'll become a fan favorite at the AHL level sooner than later. Modeling his game after former Hawks winger Brandon Hagel, Luypen parlays an in-your-face style with scoring touch around the net and attention to detail elsewhere on the ice.
Luypen, selected in the ninth round of the 2017 WHL Draft and seventh round of the 2021 NHL Draft, was never a standout talent growing up in British Columbia. However, he's developed his game to a point where he bagged 34 goals in 88 games this past season for the WHL champion Edmonton Oil Kings.
"I never fit in," Luypen recalled of his journey through the minor hockey system. "I was always the outsider, the last cut from the top team in the area. Coaches would tell me, 'We just thought you weren't good enough.' They'd always come up with an excuse. I'd remember it, put it in the back of my mind, and get to work. I've always wanted to prove those people wrong."
You can see this underdog mentality in the way Luypen chases down loose pucks, celebrates goals, and yaps at opponents. Luypen's 5-foot-10, 165 pounds, and doesn't possess otherworldly skill. He must continue competing with a chip on his shoulder in order to jump to the next level.
"I've always played with an edge. Especially being a smaller guy, I know I have to bring that element and just compete super hard every night," Luypen said. "I want to get to the end goal, which is to play in the NHL. Signing a contract will be just another stepping stone. Nothing's ever given."
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email (john.matisz@thescore.com).