Fantasy: TE busts to avoid in your draft

Fantasy Busts
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Tight Ends

2014 Rankings | Sleepers

Outside of Jimmy Graham, every tight end comes with some form of doubt heading into the 2014 season. It's a position that appears to be very deep on paper, but one that tends to produce only a handful of high-end starters each year.

Rob Gronkowski may be the biggest bust candidate at any position, however, he also represents the kind of risk fantasy owners should be taking to win. When healthy, Gronkowski can rival or even surpass Graham as the top fantasy tight end and it's that colossal upside that forces owners to use a high pick on him despite his injury history. 

Gambling in fantasy can be a lucrative endeavor, if you have a solid grasp on the players who have a chance to pay off and those that are better off being avoided. 

Let's take a look at the tight ends most likely to disappoint fantasy owners in 2014.

(Note: all average draft position (ADP) data in this article is courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.)

Vernon Davis, 49ers

ADP: 5th round

Coming off an 850-yard, 13-touchdown season, it may seem insane to advise against picking Davis.  He did after all finish the year as a top-3 fantasy tight end. 

The 49ers pass catcher is one of the most physically gifted players at his position, so don't confuse this for an indictment on his skills. Instead, it has more to do with his situation, playing in a run-first offense that will have a healthy Michael Crabtree back and one that also added veteran receiver Stevie Johnson in the offseason.

Davis' production dipped when Crabtree was in the lineup and while he should remain a red zone threat, that won't be enough to make him worth his current ADP. You would be better served waiting a couple rounds and going after Kyle Rudolph. 

Jordan Reed, Redskins

ADP: 7th round

While Gronkowski's injuries are worth rolling the dice on, Reed's concussion issues should generate even more caution from fantasy owners. Concussions for players who make a living going over the middle are worrisome, especially when they dealt with the same problem in college. 

Reed has the talent to be a top-5 fantasy tight end, and he was having a solid rookie season (45 receptions, 499 yards, three touchdowns), before he was sidelined after nine games last year. 

Heading into his second campaign, he has a new coach in Jay Gruden, who hasn't proven he can utilize tight ends well. He also has a new collection of teammates, who could eat into his targets. DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts join Pierre Garcon to make a quality corps of receivers, which could make Reed more of an inconsistent fantasy option. 

Reed's ADP makes him the seventh tight end taken this year and while he may rebound, you would be better off using your seventh round pick elsewhere. Factoring in the time he might miss if he suffers another concussion and his competition for targets in Washington, you could wait and opt for fellow sophomore Zach Ertz a few rounds later.

Antonio Gates, Chargers

ADP: 14th round

Gates is being drafted on average as the 16th tight end off the board, so it seems like people are catching on to the fact that the former Chargers star is no longer the focal point of their passing attack. 

Gates has a recognizable name that some fantasy owners may flock to in the deeper rounds of drafts, which are often filled with more unknown commodities. Don't let yourself fall victim to the temptation of the good old days, when Gates was the elite player at his position. 

A quick look at his numbers from last season may fool you, as the veteran tight end had his best season in four years, in large part to the fact he played in all 16 games for the first time since 2009. 

Gates produced 50 percent of his yards and touchdowns in the first five games of the year. As the season went on, wide receiver Keenan Allen and tight end Ladarius Green emerged as Philip Rivers new favourite targets and that will continue in 2014. If you are digging deep for tight end value, a rising star like Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs is a better bet than the fading Gates.