Fantasy Busts
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Wide Receivers
Predicting wide receiver busts is more difficult than identifying likely busts at other positions because wide receivers don't control their own fantasy fate. Even an excellent wide receiver can be rendered a middling fantasy player by poor quarterback performance. Just ask Larry Fitzgerald.
Avoiding busts at wide receiver is as important as ever, however, especially because this year's crop of wideouts is one of the deepest in recent memory. The NFL's shift towards pass-first offenses has created a glut of attractive sleeper receivers with ADPs outside the first eight rounds. In such an economy, missing on an early-round receiver is particularly damaging because it costs you the chance to draft an impact player at a more scarce position like running back.
Let's take a look at the wide receivers most likely to disappoint fantasy owners in 2014.
(Note: all average draft position (ADP) data in this article is courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.)
Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings
ADP: 4th round
There's tremendous excitement surrounding second-year Vikings wideout Patterson, much of it centered around the idea that new offensive coordinator Norv Turner's offense produced a major breakout season for Josh Gordon in 2013 and will do the same for Patterson this year.
Let's all take a deep breath and consider for a moment that Patterson and Gordon are very different players. Both are big, physical and fast, but their attributes diverge in one major way: downfield route running ability. Gordon led the NFL in receiving last season primarily because he was an elite deep threat. Patterson, on the other hand, entered the NFL as such an inconsistent route runner that the Vikings were forced to feed him screens and reverses just to get the ball into his hands.
Consider their average depth of target stats from 2013. They couldn't be much more different:
| Player | Touches Behind LOS* | Pass Thrown 1-10 yds | Pass Thrown 11+ yds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon | 5.10% | 40.60% | 54.30% |
| Patterson | 51.20% | 33.70% | 15.10% |
*Includes both catches and rushing attempts
[Data courtesy: ApexFantasyLeagues.com]
Patterson will almost certainly be more effective as a downfield receiving threat this season, but it's foolish to expect him to take a giant leap and immediately become a field-stretcher, let alone a player of Gordon's caliber. Chances are Patterson will again be forced to generate most of his fantasy production via yards after the catch. That's clearly not ideal.
Spend your fourth-round pick on a wide receiver with similar athletic upside to Patterson but more sophisticated route running ability (and thus a much better chance of hitting his ceiling) like Percy Harvin or Michael Floyd.
Wes Welker, Broncos
ADP: 4th round
Welker's numbers in his first eight games last season are impressive: 50 catches for 555 yards and nine touchdowns. He was on his way to another 100-catch, 1,000-yard season.
Then he hit the wall. Or, rather, a wall of defenders hit him. And it left him concussed. Twice.
Welker's second-half numbers: 23 catches for 223 yards and one touchdown. And, perhaps most importantly, three games missed.
If you draft Welker in the fourth round, you're betting the Broncos offense will remain among the league's best (a safe assumption) and Welker will remain healthy (a significantly less sure proposition). Concussions are no joke and it isn't a stretch to say Welker is one more blow to the head away from hanging up his cleats for good.
The Broncos know this, which is why they signed Emmanuel Sanders in free agency. Sanders is expected to line up in Eric Decker's old outside receiver spot to open the season, but some analysts believe he will eventually land in Welker's slot role (with draft pick Cody Latimer outside).
Welker may well make it through the season unscathed and produce his usual 100 catches. It's not a bet worth making in the fourth round, however. If you want to take an old, reliable volume receiver, Reggie Wayne in the seventh round and Anquan Boldin in the 11th represent better values.
Sammy Watkins, Bills
ADP: 7th round
The Bills made a big splash when they traded up for Watkins, and the rookie made similar waves when videos of him making ridiculous one-handed catches at training camp went viral. His hype has vaulted him to a seventh-round ADP, a precariously high slot for a rookie wideout.
There's a common element those one-handed videos share, and it's of vital importance to recognize this when evaluating Watkins' fantasy value: they all resulted from bad throws by EJ Manuel.
Watkins' inclusion on this list has more to do with the man tasked with getting him the ball than it does with Watkins himself. There's little doubt Watkins will eventually be a solid pro and likely significantly more, but expecting him to produce startable fantasy numbers this season is unrealistic. Manuel looks like the same player we saw last season, which is to say a highly erratic passer, and the Bills promise to be among the NFL's run-heaviest teams again (they ranked first in that category in 2013).
If you want to go fishing for this year's Keenan Allen despite historical data suggesting rookie wideouts aren't worth your time in fantasy football, Watkins isn't your man. Watkins is being drafted a round ahead of Kelvin Benjamin, three rounds ahead of Mike Evans and four rounds ahead of Jordan Matthews. All three of those players are bigger than Watkins and more likely to draw red zone looks. All three represent better value.
