Fantasy Busts
QB | RB | WR | TE
Running Backs
When identifying potential busts at running back, there are a few key factors to consider. At the micro level, age and total career touches are both strong indicators of future performance. There's no magic number in either category that serves as the cutoff point when a running back "hits the wall," and there are exceptions to every rule, but generally running back production declines sharply when a back reaches his late 20s and/or as he approaches 3,000 combined carries and receptions.
At the macro level, we're interested in the expectations of a running back's offensive line, and also his offense as a whole. It's preferable in real-life football to run the ball when leading the game, so it follows that running backs on prolific offenses should be expected to produce higher point totals (and far less week-over-week variance) than those on poor offenses.
Let's take a look at the running backs most likely to disappoint fantasy owners in 2014.
(Note: all average draft position (ADP) data in this article is courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.)
Arian Foster, Texans
ADP: 2nd round
Fantasy owners worried Foster's history of heavy use and injuries would sap his value in 2013, and that's precisely what happened. So why is Foster going off the board in fantasy leagues in the late second round again this season? He's a year older and his back has another scar resulting from offseason surgery. Those troublesome hamstrings aren't getting any looser, either.
Equally worrisome is that Foster's offense doesn't appear much improved over the Texans of a year ago. There's a new head coach and quarterback in town, but it's arguable that both are downgrades. The previous boss, Gary Kubiak, certainly wore out his welcome in town, but what can't be denied is that he managed to squeeze maximum value out of the Texans' running game year after year thanks to exceptional play calling and a blocking scheme that perfectly suited his player personnel.
Even if Foster is the centerpiece of the Texans' offense this season, there's no compelling reason to believe that new coach Bill O'Brien can find a way to coax enough production out of a battered Foster to warrant a second-round pick, nor is there to believe that Foster will remain healthy. Spend your early draft currency elsewhere.
Reggie Bush, Lions
ADP: 3rd round
Bush is the rare running back whose best years, at least in fantasy terms, came half a decade after he entered the NFL. To his credit, he has proved his doubters wrong and showed he can carry the load as a feature back. Just don't expect him to do it again this year.
Things are lining up for Bush to return to a committee role this season, and it has much more to do with the talent behind him on the depth chart than the Lions' desire to limit his carries. Joique Bell is poised to break out and he offers a skill set that could encourage the Lions to use Bush in a change of pace role.
The 220-pound Bell is far better suited to goal-line carries and clock-killing production in garbage time, but he's also a strong enough receiver that he won't have to be replaced by Bush on third downs. The Lions gave Bell a $9.4-million contract this offseason, proving they see him as a big part of their plans moving forward.
Also of note is that new Lions offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi comes to the team from New Orleans, where the Saints employed a three-headed rushing attack that sapped the fantasy value of all involved. If Bush is used as he was with the Saints, he won't approach third-round value in fantasy leagues.
Bell is being drafted two rounds after Bush. The price for both backs is likely too rich, but Bell is the better bet to provide bang for your buck.
Chris Johnson, Jets
ADP: 5th round
The hard truth about Johnson: he hasn't been an effective running back for at least three seasons. The Titans simply had so few other offensive weapons that they were essentially forced to keep feeding him the ball. Johnson's cumulative statistics over that stretch look good (he's topped 1,000 yards rushing every season since his historic 2,000-yard campaign in 2009), but they obscure the truth: he's a fantasy killer.
Johnson's freakish ability to stay healthy (he's missed only one game in his career) allows him to compile decent numbers by season's end. Every summer, this fools fantasy owners who look only at yearly statistics into thinking Johnson is still a commodity worth owning. The reality is that Johnson is a weekly weak spot for fantasy owners because his production is fleeting. He explodes for a huge game every now and then, but much of the time it goes to waste because frustrated owners have relegated him to their bench in favor of a more reliable option.
Johnson averaged a paltry 3.9 yards per carry last season running behind a very strong offensive line in Tennessee. Now he's in New York and behind a worse offensive line. His backup, Chris Ivory, is far better than anyone he lined up alongside in Tennessee and should steal goal-line carries and perhaps much more. Johnson was already a poor fantasy asset and now his stock is declining.
Don't make the mistake of judging Johnson by his cumulative stats. Use your fifth-round pick on a player on the rise. Chase the next 2,000-yard rusher, not one who will never come close to matching the feat.
