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Fantasy: RB sleepers to target late in your draft

Timothy T. Ludwig / USA TODAY Sports

Fantasy Sleepers
QB | RB | WR | TE

Running Backs

The running back position has never been as shallow in fantasy football as it is right now. Outside of the consensus top four tailbacks (five if you like Eddie Lacy), question marks abound. After the second round in standard drafts, you can't even be sure you're getting a player who will lead his team in carries.

More than ever before, hitting on a running back late in your draft can propel you to the championship. Alfred Morris did it for owners in 2012, and Knowshon Moreno did it last year. Who's that player this year? Below, we run down our best guesses.

(Note: all average draft position (ADP) data in this article is courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.)

Priority Sleepers

Fred Jackson, Bills

ADP: 8th round

Fred Jackson very quietly posted top-ten fantasy numbers at his position in 2013. Every year, fantasy "experts" predict his inevitable decline, and yet every year he keeps producing. Has any player been as consistently disrespected in fantasy circles throughout his career as Jackson?

Now 33 years old, the end will come for Jackson in the coming seasons. But there's no compelling reason to believe it will be this year. The Bills just gave him a contract extension, and Jackson actually has less wear on his tires than players like Adrian Peterson, LeSean, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice and Chris Johnson by virtue of having fewer career carries.

Jackson put up 1,283 total yards and 10 touchdowns in the NFL's run-heaviest offense a season ago. The Bills promise to be run-heavy again this year, and Jackson will remain the team's top option at the goal line. He's a steal at his ADP.

Carlos Hyde, 49ers

ADP: 8th round

As with Jackson, Father Time will eventually catch up to 49ers starter Frank Gore. Considering Gore has over 1,000 more career rushing attempts than Jackson, it's a much safer bet that Gore will be the one to fall off in 2014.

If and when Gore descends, rookie Carlos Hyde is primed to take his place. Recent injuries to Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James have thrust the second-round pick up the depth chart, and there's reason to believe he would be the 49ers' workhorse in the event Gore can't play.

Hyde isn't a "wow" runner, but he offers a very similar skill set to Gore and has shown plenty of juice in his legs this preseason. His upside makes him well worth a pick-and-stash in the eighth round of drafts.

Andre Williams, Giants

ADP: 9th round

Like Hyde, Giants rookie Andre Williams has flashed enough talent in the preseason to convince fantasy owners that he could have high-end RB2 value in the event his team's starter goes down with an injury.

Williams may have value even if starter Rashad Jennings stays healthy because his complementary skill set could force the Giants into a 50-50 timeshare. In such an event, Williams may actually be the more valuable back to own, as his strength in short-yardage scenarios could land him the bulk of the Giants' goal-line carries. 

The knock on Williams is that his near-complete lack of ability catching passes may prevent him from ever being a true feature back. That criticism is fair, but his upside as a touchdown machine still makes him a good value at his ninth-round ADP.

Khiry Robinson, Saints

ADP: 10th round

It's never a bad idea to stash depth players from the NFL's best offenses, particularly when they have a relatively clean path to touches. That's the case with second-year Saints tailback Khiry Robinson, who's currently slated to share carries with Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram in a Saints backfield that's without receptions hog Darren Sproles for the first time since 2010.

The undrafted Robinson flashed surprising power and wiggle on his 54 carries last season, and he should carve out a bigger role for himself this season if he continues to play as he did in his rookie campaign. Saints coach Sean Payton frustrates fantasy owners annually by dividing carries among so many players so as to render them all nothing more than a FLEX in fantasy, but this might be the year to bet on that trend changing. Thomas doesn't scare defenses and Ingram is an injury risk. Robinson has feature back potential and could emerge as the lead dog in this attack.

Christine Michael, Seahawks

ADP: 11th round

Second-year slasher Christine Michael is a tremendous natural talent who's buried on the depth chart behind an even greater talent in Marshawn Lynch. Don't be surprised if he digs himself out, however, as things can change in a hurry in the NFL, and youth always beats experience in the end. 

Lynch carries a large salary cap charge in 2015 and has a lot of wear on his tires, prompting some analysts to suggest he's likely entering his last year in Seattle. The Seahawks could opt to milk every last drop of value out of him this season, killing Michael's fantasy value, or they could move toward a committee approach. 

All Michael needs is an opportunity. If he shows the same burst he has in the preseason, the Seahawks may decide to expedite plans to phase Lynch out. How likely is it to happen? Not very. But the price of a ticket to the Michael lottery is only an 11th-round pick.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts

ADP: 11th round

If Colts starter Trent Richardson keeps running like he did last season, the team will have no option but to demote him to a reserve role. The only player on the roster capable of assuming the bulk of his carries is Ahmad Bradshaw.

Yes, it's the same Ahmad Bradshaw who probably burned your fantasy team at some point in the past half-decade by getting injured. There's no denying that Bradshaw has been one of the most brittle tailbacks in recent memory.

Bradhsaw's healthy now, however - and, to his credit, he still appears to be running with the same reckless style that makes him effective (and resulted in several of his injuries). If Richardson is demoted and Bradshaw gets the opportunity to be the Colts' feature back, he should be a viable fantasy starter for as many weeks as his body can hold up. 

Deep Sleepers

Ronnie Hillman, Broncos

ADP: 13th round

Second-year player Montee Ball is the Broncos' presumed starter, but he'll miss the entire preseason after undergoing an appendectomy. Ball isn't a particularly special talent, and Broncos head coach John Fox doesn't have a history of trusting young players. If Ball struggles early in the season (especially in pass protection - keeping Peyton Manning upright is paramount), his carries could be severely limited. 

Hillman would be next in line for carries in such a scenario. Coaches have raved about how much the 2012 third-round pick has improved this offseason. At this time a year ago, Knowshon Moreno was considered the likely odd man out in the Broncos backfield. Moreno finished the year as a top-five fantasy running back. Is it so crazy to suggest Hillman might follow a similar trajectory?

Lance Dunbar, Cowboys

ADP: 14th round

Word out of Cowboys camp is that the team views Lance Dunbar as much more than just a backup to starter DeMarco Murray. There are even rumors suggesting the Cowboys are crafting plays with the speedy third-year player in mind. Don't believe it? Consider that the Cowboys have deliberately limited his carries in the preseason to keep him fresh for when games matter. 

Murray is far from the most durable tailback in the league. Owners who select Dunbar late in their drafts could find themselves with a starting running back before the schedule turns the page to October. Even if Murray remains healthy, Dunbar could make a strong FLEX with weekly big play upside. 

James Starks, Packers

ADP: 14th round

Packers starter Eddie Lacy has a long injury history, and backup James Starks has flashed big-time playmaking ability in the brief moments he's been both healthy and the Packers' clear top option in the running game. The problem for Starks is that too often he's unable to seize his fleeting opportunities.

Consider Starks a must-own handcuff for Lacy owners and a reasonable lottery ticket for those not fortunate enough to draft the former Alabama bruiser. If Lacy goes down, Starks could assume his top-ten value.

Super Deep Sleeper

James White, Patriots

ADP: Undrafted

What has to happen for rookie James White to have significant fantasy value in the Patriots' backfield? Just a few Stevan Ridley fumbles and/or another Shane Vereen injury. Not so far-fetched, right? 

Consider that Bill Belichick isn't afraid to give rookies carries, nor ride the hot hand regardless of who the public believes his "starter" is, and White has reportedly exceeded expectations at training camp. 

White is going undrafted in standard leagues at the moment. Mark him as a possible waiver wire pickup depending on how things shake out in New England. 

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