NFL Week 16 bets: Value on Chargers as underdogs, Burrow vs. Ewers

I'm quickly running out of weeks to hit my preseason goal of a 55% winning percentage against the spread for the season, and last week's 8-8 record doesn't help.

But that doesn't mean we can't finish strong. Let's get to our picks against the spread for Sunday's slate of games. Our bets for Sunday Night Football can be found in a separate article.

👉 Check out all of the Week 16 lines available on theScore Bet here

Jump to: Late slate

🏈 Pick: Titans (+3.5)

This is a tough game to handicap, mainly because we have no idea what version of the Chiefs will show up. They were eliminated from the playoffs last week after losing to the Chargers, and they also lost Patrick Mahomes for the season due to a torn ACL. Motivation could be at an all-time low - or they could rally behind backup Gardner Minshew against one of the league's worst teams.

With that said, I'll take the home team and the points. Rashee Rice may also miss this game, which really changes how the Chiefs' offense looks. It's expected to be a low-scoring contest, with the total set at 37.5 points. Taking the underdog in this scenario is never a bad idea.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Vikings (-2.5)

Typically, I'd side with the home underdog in a meeting between two below-average teams with comparable quarterback play. However, the Vikings' defense is a difference-maker, ranking as a top-10 unit according to SumerSports' expected points added per play (EPA/play). Meanwhile, the Giants' defense ranks fourth last, which will give J.J. McCarthy a chance to post his third-straight 30-point game.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Browns (+10.5)

The Bills are rolling and the Browns are toast. But there's something fishy about this game that's leading me to side with Cleveland and the points.

The Browns are 4-2 at home this season, mainly because their defense is far tougher in Cleveland than on the road. It's a big "if," but if the Browns can slow down Josh Allen even slightly, they have a decent chance of covering this spread. The Bills may also take their foot off the gas a bit after a huge road victory in New England while looking ahead to a matchup with the Eagles in Week 17. I expect the Browns' defense to show up one final time at home to keep this game close.

Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆

🏈 Pick: Jets (+6.5)

Winners of back-to-back games, the Saints are playing better, but I simply cannot back them to win by a converted touchdown. Yes, the Jets are coming off an embarrassing performance on the road in Jacksonville where they gave up 48 points to Trevor Lawrence, but the Saints' offense does not pose the same threat as the Jaguars' attack. The total for this game is 40.5, so I'll take the Jets to keep this close in a game I don't expect to spend much - if any - time watching.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Buccaneers (-3)

This is a crucial matchup for the NFC South title race. Both teams lost winnable games last week, so the Buccaneers and Panthers are deadlocked at 7-7 with two games against each other in the final three weeks. Sunday's winner has a much clearer path to winning the division, while the other will likely miss the playoffs.

I'll take the Bucs, who I believe are a better team on both sides of the ball. Mike Evans returned last week and made an immediate impact. Unfortunately, the Bucs couldn't cover Kyle Pitts, who went off for 166 yards and three touchdowns to win the game for the Falcons. Luckily for the Bucs, the Panthers' passing attack is far from explosive, and they should have no problems containing Bryce Young.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Bengals (-3.5)

There's a lot of noise around this matchup with the quarterback switch in Miami and the constant chatter about Joe Burrow's happiness in Cincinnati. But this game boils down to the fact that we only have to lay 3.5 points with Burrow, who's widely regarded as a top-five quarterback, against Quinn Ewers, a seventh-round rookie making his first NFL start.

I am not going to complicate this handicap. I'm taking the Bengals without hesitation.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Chargers (+2.5)

The Cowboys' season effectively ended when they lost to the Vikings. Dallas is now +5000 (2% implied probability) to make the playoffs on theScore Bet after being in the hunt to win the division at this time last week.

Meanwhile, the Chargers beat the Chiefs on the road as underdogs last week and still aren't considered favorites in this spot. Even if the Chiefs with Mahomes and the Cowboys are rated equally at home (which they shouldn't be), this spread is wrong. I'd take the Chargers if they were laying 2.5 points, so I'll take the 2.5 points they're getting instead and run.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

👉 Check out all of the Week 16 lines available on theScore Bet here

🏈 Pick: Broncos (-3.5)

This may be the game of the week. The 12-2 Broncos host the 10-4 Jaguars, both still in contention for the AFC's top seed.

The Jaguars are winners of five straight, but the only one they can brag about is their 35-6 victory over the Chargers. The other four were against the Cardinals, Titans, Jets, and the Colts when Daniel Jones was hurt, so it's not as though they racked up wins versus quality opponents.

I believe the Jags are a good, well-rounded team, but I'm not convinced they can go into Denver and beat this version of the Broncos. Bo Nix is playing very well, and the Broncos' defense remains one of the best in the league, especially at Mile High. These two teams may meet again in the playoffs, and maybe I'll take the Jaguars on the road if they close the season strong, but for now, I have to side with Denver.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

🏈 Pick: Cardinals (+3)

I don't see much of a difference between these two teams, so getting the Cardinals and three points at home seems like value. The Falcons have the rest advantage, but that shouldn't be worth as much as this spread suggests.

The Cardinals are 1-6 against the spread (ATS) at home this season, while the Falcons are 1-6 ATS as the favorite and 0-3 ATS as the away favorite. The result of this game will buck one of these trends, and I'll side with Arizona picking up a victory at home.

Confidence level: ★★★★☆

🏈 Pick: Lions (-6.5)

The Steelers are playing solid football, having won their last two over the Dolphins and Ravens. But facing one of the most explosive offenses in the league on the road is a test I'm not sure they can pass.

The Lions are 12-0 after a loss since 2023. Sure, Detroit gave up 41 points to the Rams last week, but Pittsburgh's attack doesn't compare to what Matthew Stafford and Co. can deliver.

The Lions are fighting for their playoff lives and can't afford to drop games. Even with a loss, the Steelers will still be in the hunt for the AFC North crown. I expect the Lions' offense to post a huge number on the Steelers, one they won't come close to covering.

Confidence level: ★★★★★

🏈 Pick: Texans (-13.5)

The Raiders got shut out by the Eagles last week and now travel to Houston to play the league's top defense. I don't see a way for the Raiders to score more than 10 points. And that makes it a lot easier for the Texans to cover 13.5 points.

C.J. Stroud helped put 40 on the board against the Cardinals last week, perhaps a sign that Houston's offense is finding its groove. Laying this many points never feels great, but this is a spot where the path to a 14-point victory seems clear.

Confidence level: ★★★☆☆

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