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NFL Week 12 player props: Searching for stars to back or fade on Sunday

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We traded 5-5 weeks for rotating highs and lows in our Sunday add-on player props. Falling one catch shy with Trey McBride and one yard short with A.J. Dillon was the difference in Week 10's 8-3 record and a 3-7 Week 11.

Calvin Ridley: Over 60.5 receiving yards

The Texans' pass defense is comparable to those of the Titans and Steelers - two teams who had no answer for Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley. The Jaguars' offense stalls when Lawrence feels consistent pressure, but Houston's below-average pressure rate doesn't bode well for the home team, and Ridley's an explosive player who can take advantage.

Chuba Hubbard: Under 45.5 rushing yards

Miles Sanders' snap share is creeping back up. He was on the field almost as much as Chuba Hubbard last week. Plus, the way to beat the Titans is to throw the ball against a thin secondary. Even in the Jags' wire-to-wire win over Tennessee last week, Travis Etienne was held to 52 yards by a top-10 run defense. If Hubbard doesn't get double-digit carries, he's unlikely to top this prescribed total.

Saquon Barkley: Under 70.5 rushing yards

Who knows what the Patriots will do on offense. No matter the organization's motivation for winning or losing off the field, what New England does well on the field is stop the run. No team has allowed fewer rushing yards per game, and that's despite having faced Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Alvin Kamara, Raheem Mostert, and the Eagles' group of runners. Look for Saquon Barkley to make hay in the passing game to help Tommy DeVito.

Bijan Robinson: Over 18.5 receiving yards

Baby steps. Arthur Smith finally got around to using Bijan Robinson in Arizona. Now, after a bye week, and with Desmond Ridder back under center, maybe he's ready to make him a factor in the passing game again. In the six games Ridder finished with Robinson healthy, the tailback caught 26 passes for 179 yards. Four catches for 30 yards should be the expectation on Sunday.

Ja'Marr Chase: Over 65.5 receiving yards

I want to buy low on Jake Browning, a long-time backup with a ton of college experience at a top program. Instead of taking the over for Browning's yardage, let's trust his top target. Ja'Marr Chase is lined 20 yards shorter than he would be if Joe Burrow was throwing the ball. The Steelers' pass defense has enough holes that Browning can repeatedly look to Chase to make a play.

Mike Evans: Anytime touchdown (+150 or better)

We don't use anytime touchdowns in this space very often, but Mike Evans has now scored in seven of 10 games this season, and there's nothing about the Colts' secondary that suggests he's not at least 50/50 to find the end zone in what could be a high-scoring game.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson: Under 171.5 passing yards

I didn't see Dorian Thompson-Robinson throwing 43 times last week. If you told me that was the game plan against Pittsburgh - which makes me feel better about the Bengals' offense this week - I would have thought DTR would throw for more than 165 yards. That was all he could muster with that volume, and that usage won't work in Denver, so we'll bet he throws less for no more than last week's yardage total.

Matthew Stafford: Under 33.5 pass attempts

In their first meeting, it took half the game for the Rams to figure out that they could run on the Cardinals. With Kyren Williams back and Royce Freeman proving reliable, both should get a chance right from the start this time around, and success on their end should limit how many throws Matthew Stafford needs to make.

Josh Allen: Over 258.5 passing yards

Taking Stefon Diggs is tempting here since his yardage total is depressed after tough matchups with opposing cornerbacks. But let's look for Josh Allen to connect with Diggs while also spreading it around to Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, Gabe Davis, and James Cook out of the backfield in a game where the Bills should find themselves in a shootout.

Keaton Mitchell: Over 14.5 longest rush

Keaton Mitchell's played in three games and had carries for 60, 39, and 21 yards. The Chargers' defensive metrics aren't bad against the run, but expecting Los Angeles to be on point for every one of the Ravens' misdirection run plays is probably a losing bet. Mitchell will use his speed and elusiveness to create a big run in a fourth straight game.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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