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NFL Week 11 player props: Which stars will shine on Sunday?

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We had our best showing of the season in the prop game, even hitting on a Bijan Robinson touchdown at +120 on the way to an 8-3 Week 10, getting back above .500 through 102 plays. With just a handful of weeks to go before things get weird in late December, let's hope for better luck than those who had the over on anything to do with Mark Andrews or Joe Burrow on Thursday.

Trey McBride: Over 5.5 receptions (+110)

If we didn't like Robinson so much last week, our prop target for Falcons-Cardinals would've been McBride. It's a small sample size, but in the two games where Zach Ertz hasn't been there to block McBride's playing time, and Clayton Tune wasn't the quarterback, McBride's caught 18 passes for 226 yards. The top tight end taken in the 2022 NFL Draft has seen his market totals increase, but Arizona's taking on the team allowing the most receptions to opposing tight ends (7.1).

Jahmyr Gibbs: Over 69.5 rushing + receiving yards

If this bet sounds familiar, it's because we used it last week when Gibbs was lined at 58.5 against the Chargers. He ended up with 112. So the line goes up, and though the Bears have a far better run defense, the Lions will find a way to get Gibbs into the open field, as he's had 35 or more receiving yards four times this season.

Dak Prescott: Over 259.5 passing yards

Since the Sunday night fiasco in San Francisco in Week 5, the Cowboys' rejigged offense has gone from averaging 6.6 yards per pass to 9.7 and made Prescott a worthy long shot for MVP. Maybe that disparity is a function of opposition, but given it's the Panthers on deck Sunday, who cares? Prescott may not throw for more attempts or completions than the market thinks, but with Carolina still missing virtually its entire first-string secondary, 30 throws might be good enough to get to 260 yards or more.

A.J. Dillon: Over 29.5 rushing yards

This might be the week Aaron Jones goes off, but Dillon was the more efficient runner versus the Steelers last week and against the Rams the week before. Even with Jones back healthy, the Packers have split the snaps evenly between the two, but Dillon's lined at nearly half Jones' total. There should be more than enough yards to go around against the Chargers.

Josh Jacobs: Over 16.5 rush attempts

The point spread says that Antonio Pierce's continued commitment to Jacobs will likely be tested in what could be a blowout. But what if it isn't?

Jacobs has 26 and 27 carries in the last two weeks, so let's expect Pierce and the Raiders to stick with what they want to do best, even if they get down two scores.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson: Under 25.5 pass attempts (+100)

Thompson-Robinson was put in a tough spot for his first start, being forced to throw 36 times in a trailing game state against the Ravens. Better prepared and relying on the run game - with DTR's legs a factor - against a Steelers defense that'll also give up the big play in the passing game, Thompson-Robinson shouldn't need to throw too many times.

Christian McCaffrey: Under 17.5 rush attempts

After giving him enough carries to go over this number in the first five games of the season, the 49ers haven't asked McCaffrey to operate with a heavy workload in their last four contests, presumably to keep him healthy. So why return to their old ways of heavy usage against a team they should beat easily?

There are plenty of healthy options (Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason, Tyrion Davis-Price) to burn the clock down the stretch, and with McCaffrey's touchdown streak over, San Francisco won't be needlessly tempted late.

Stefon Diggs: Under 75.5 receiving yards

What's wrong with the Bills' offense? It's not efficiency; it's turnovers. So Buffalo's doing the right things but doing them the wrong way. Josh Allen should continue to stay patient by using other options and be wary of forcing the ball into dangerous spaces. Speaking of which, Diggs follows his tough Monday matchup versus Patrick Surtain (three catches for 34 yards) by having to go against Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed.

Matthew Stafford: Over 22.5 pass completions (+100)

In Week 1, Stafford completed 24 passes for 334 yards in a convincing win in Seattle. Now he has Cooper Kupp available for what the point spread suggests should be a close rematch at home. The Seahawks should stuff the Rams' efforts to run, and Seattle will be able to produce more offense, so it will once again come down to Stafford moving the ball consistently. That's something he's already shown he can do.

Joshua Dobbs: Under 229.5 passing yards

Those betting on the Vikings last week happily took advantage of Dobbs' epic second quarter against the Saints. However, with so much of it directed at T.J. Hockenson, the Broncos should be game-planning to stop that option for Dobbs. We'll continue to back Denver's defensive turnaround, expecting Dobbs' story to take a negative turn on Sunday night.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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