NFL Week 3 Teasers: Keep searching for key numbers
We cashed in our Week 2 teaser of Eagles -1 and Patriots +8.5. Let's continue the momentum by finding the key numbers and matchups this week.
For the first time all season, there are multiple double-digit spreads - Cowboys (-12) @ Cardinals, Bears @ Chiefs (-12.5), and Giants @ 49ers (-10). But remember, there's little value in teasing those big favorites.
Don't forget our weekly reminder: teasers provide value for bettors by capturing key winning margin numbers: three, six, and seven. It never makes sense to tease a game through zero because you lose valuable win probability. Games are hardly won by less than a field goal or end in a super-rare tie.
Let's use the Saints' (+2) matchup against the Packers to show how a teaser provides value.
| Alt. Spread | Odds |
|---|---|
| +3 | -143 |
| +4 | -175 |
| +5 | -196 |
| +6 | -232 |
| +7 | -289 |
| +8 | -337 |
There's a massive increase in the price when the key numbers six and seven are crossed. A teaser leg of Saints +8 at -280 offers far greater value than getting the Saints at an alternate spread of +8 at a -337 price.
As always, to cash the two-team, six-point teaser, we must pair Saints +8 with another teaser leg. Our "teaser basket" shows the most valuable teaser legs of the week based on key numbers.
Teaser Basket
| Team | Spread | Teaser leg |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| Bills | -6.5 | -0.5 |
| Ravens | -7.5 | -1.5 |
| Saints | +2 | +8 |
| Seahawks | -6 | pk |
| Steelers | +2.5 | +8.5 |
| Rams | +2 | +8 |
As outlined earlier, there's value in including Saints +8 as one of our teaser legs. Not only because it crosses key numbers, but the matchup is favorable, too. The Saints are 2-0 after narrowly escaping the Titans and Panthers. Derek Carr is adjusting to a new system. He's done enough to lead his offense to wins. New Orleans' defense has been phenomenal, though, only letting up one touchdown through eight quarters.
The Saints are traveling to Green Bay to face a surprisingly stout Packers team. Jordan Love has shown promise to start the season, which will create a tougher test for the Saints defense. However, New Orleans getting two points doesn't make sense, so teasing the spread past a touchdown is worth it.
The Commanders are off to a surprising 2-0 start - their best since 2011 - with wins over the Cardinals and Broncos. Washington will be competitive this season, but everyone should pump the brakes after two shaky victories over lackluster teams. It'll be a different story when the Bills come to the nation's capital Sunday.
There were concerns for Buffalo after its loss to the Jets in Week 1, but it followed that up with a 28-point win over the Raiders. Even more important, Josh Allen attempted 37 passes without an interception against Las Vegas. The Bills are the contender people thought they were. Expect them to rain on Washington's early season parade in a dominant win.
A teaser of Saints +8 and Bills -1 will earn us back-to-back weeks with a win.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formally known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.