It's preseason for everyone. The idea is to get some early reps, not extend yourself, learn the playbook, and definitely avoid getting hurt. That doesn't just apply to the players on the field - it also applies to bettors in the sportsbook. With three weeks of tuneups on the schedule to get fully stretched out, we'll proceed with extreme caution. While these games don't count, the bets definitely do.
We brought our successful Week 1 record into the four games on Thursday and Friday night here. There are a dozen contests throughout the weekend to choose from as we use point spreads, underdog moneylines, totals, and six-point teasers to find value bets.
Best spread bet
Commanders (+3.5) over Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes barely broke a sweat last Saturday, completing six passes for 60 yards and throwing for a touchdown. After that, he exited - as did the Chiefs' motivation to do anything other than run out the clock or have a defensive back kick a PAT. Shane Buechele and Dustin Crum's 30 pass attempts against the Bears aren't going to scare me.
The Commanders have position battles up and down the lineup, exemplified by incumbent running back Antonio Gibson seeming to fall out of favor in camp. That attitude of competition should permeate through the locker room, creating more individual urgency in 60 minutes of play.
Lastly, I'd much rather have Sam Howell in the fourth quarter than either of the aforementioned Chiefs quarterbacks. Even if they are trailing, the Commanders can score late to get within this number.
Underdog moneyline bet
Broncos (+180) over Bills
Even if Josh Allen plays a series and Russell Wilson sits out, Matt Barkley will take too many snaps for me to believe the Bills should be significant favorites - especially considering how well Josh Johnson played against the Cowboys last Saturday.
In the end, we're going to see a lot of the depth chart for both teams, and there's little reason not to take the Broncos at such a good price. If the Bills turn the ball over anywhere near the five times they did against the Colts last Saturday, Denver won't let them off the hook.
Best total bet
Cowboys/Chargers under 38 points
If you caught any of the Cowboys-Broncos game last Saturday, you might have been horrified by what you saw from the Dallas offense run by Cooper Rush and Ben DiNucci. Their 4.8 yards per play in Denver would normally spark some motivation from the Cowboys to execute better the following week, but unless Dak Prescott plays the majority of snaps - which he won't - that logic doesn't apply.
Meanwhile, the Chargers gave up 29 points to the Bryce Perkins-led Rams despite holding them to 4.3 yards per play - and that's with a 60-yard touchdown factored in. The difference was Perkins' ability to run from the quarterback position, which neither Rush nor DiNucci is capable of doing.
You likely won't see three touchdowns from the Chargers' Chase Daniel-Easton Stick combination either, but even if you do, Dallas won't contribute enough to push this over the total.
Best teaser legs
Browns +8.5 / Jets +8 (-120)
Both games have a total under 40 and a coin-flip point spread that can be teased up over a touchdown. Even though it's the preseason, those elements create a profitable teaser.
The Browns got very little from Deshaun Watson in their first preseason game, and I'd expect more of a contribution from the offense when he's behind center. Even if the Browns don't score much, the defense showed it's good enough to keep a low-scoring game close, giving up less than 4 yards per play against the Jaguars.
The Jets lost Zach Wilson to injury in the preseason opener, but that just means there's opportunity in the quarterback depth chart. The Falcons and Lions may have made each other look better than they are in an entertaining game last Friday, so we'll bump up the Jets over a touchdown and expect a close game there, too.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
