Once the NFL decided to change the schedule for its annual draft and give the first round its own night, attendees have placed added importance on being selected within the first 32 picks. To the teams, the dividing line between Nos. 32 and 33 also matters since those selected in Round 1 come with affordable contractual control for five years versus just four for second-rounders.
Bettors should create their own strategic dividing line with two ways to bet the first-round market. The first involves the top half of the board and who's worth a bet at a minus price.
1st-round draft pick odds
| PLAYER | POSITION | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | QB | -5000 |
| Jordan Davis | DT | -2500 |
| Drake London | WR | -2000 |
| Jermaine Johnson | EDGE | -2000 |
| George Karlaftis | EDGE | -1600 |
| Chris Olave | WR | -900 |
| Tyler Linderbaum | C | -900 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | -700 |
| Devin Lloyd | ILB | -700 |
| Treylon Burks | WR | -650 |
| Trevor Penning | OL | -500 |
| Trent McDuffie | CB | -500 |
| Devonte Wyatt | DT | -300 |
| Zion Johnson | OL | -300 |
| Nakobe Dean | LB | -300 |
| Kenyon Green | G | -250 |
| Andrew Booth | CB | -175 |
| Matt Corral | QB | -150 |
| Dax Hill | CB | -135 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | DE | -130 |
| Boye Mafe | OLB | -130 |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | -125 |
| Desmond Ridder | QB | -120 |
| Sam Howell | QB | -120 |
| Christian Watson | WR | -110 |
Notice that there are only 25 players listed at a minus price, as 10 prospects are such a lock to go in the first round that sportsbooks won't list them at any price. However, that also means there are 35 total candidates favored to go within the first 32 picks, which obviously doesn't add up.
Avoid disaster
This is the section of the market where you can pick off some small wins to build your bankroll with minimal risk. Here are the safest bets and the return on investment you can get for a short-term turnaround.
| PLAYER | ROI |
|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 14% |
| Trevor Penning | 20% |
Williams' talent, his production, and the pedigree of Alabama star receivers are too good for him not to get selected in the first round. You would take a 14% ROI in less than a week in the stock market, so why not here?
As for Penning, you want to bet on a guy who plays at a key position that is scarcely available on draft night. After Evan Neal, Ikem Ekwonu, and Charles Cross go early on Day 1, some team will grab Penning as the next-best tackle. Other top offensive line prospects are interior players, so Penning will quickly become a target in the middle of the first round. This should be a sweat-free 20% ROI.
Finding the risers
The second part to this market involves the bets closer to 50-50. Keep in mind that positional runs can create unexpected demand, especially when it comes to players who've tested well in the lead-up to the draft.
Arnold Ebiketie (-130)
I expect four pass-rushers to go in the first 10 picks. What happens then at football's second-most impactful position? It's unlikely that no one takes an edge-rusher the rest of the night. Big Ten defensive end George Karlaftis seems to be slowly slipping, while Penn State's Ebiketie has slowly moved up on mock drafts into the mid-teens. They can both go in the first round, but I would rather lay -130 on the more heralded ex-Boilermakers star.
Christian Watson (-110)
Speed is great, but what if we could pair 4.4 40-yard speed with red-zone-type size? That's what has scouts buzzing about Watson, the North Dakota State product. After Garrett Wilson, Williams, Drake London, Treylon Burks, and Chris Olave, Watson boasts the most impressive measurables and could be worth the reach. With the Kansas City Chiefs sitting at the back end of the first round with a pair of picks and a Tyreek Hill-sized hole at wide receiver, they may look to fill it with the 6-foot-4 Watson. The trouble for the Chiefs is he might not be there at No. 29.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
