NFL Week 13 player props: Which quarterbacks will be under pressure?
Call it spite-filled hubris after a rough Week 11, but I tried calling my shot last Sunday morning:
It didn't quite work, as we finished 6-4 with a couple rough beats - Jonathan Taylor going over thanks to a big final drive, and Matthew Stafford needing to throw a billion times (mostly unsuccessfully) in the second half in Green Bay.
At 71-51-1 for the season, any week at 60% is a result without complaint.
Joe Burrow under 254.5 passing yards
The Bengals have recommitted to the run game since their bye week, which is probably a good idea when Joe Mixon is on your team. It's an even better idea in Week 13 against the Chargers, who combine unwillingness and inability to stop the run game. While I think Los Angeles is live to win the game, it will be on the arm of Justin Herbert - not because they can stop Mixon. At 91.5, I don't want to play the over on Mixon, so I'll bet that Burrow doesn't do as much through the air instead.
Jimmy Graham over 11.5 receiving yards
I'm leaning into the absurdity at this point. Why Jimmy Graham is still a principal target in the red zone or other high-leverage downs on a team that has Cole Kmet is beyond my comprehension. So instead of expecting the Bears to focus on the future, let's back the weekly blast from the past to go over a short number since we know Matt Nagy will throw it Graham's way.
Carson Wentz under 31.5 pass attempts
Even though it's not Davis Mills on the other side, this should still be something of a rocking chair game for Wentz. Whether it's via big plays through the air or a big game for Jonathan Taylor, there's likely no reason for Wentz to have to do too much here. The veteran signal-caller had 20 pass attempts in an easy win over the Texans the first time around.
Evan Engram over 32.5 receiving yards
With Mike Glennon operating the controls, there's a lot of uncertainty about who his favorite targets are going to be. I'll stick my neck out in Glennon-ian fashion and assume that a career backup will be looking at the underneath targets - mainly Evan Engram, with some of the Giants' best slot receiver options on the sidelines next to Daniel Jones.
Zach Wilson under 223.5 passing yards
I'm going to dare Zach Wilson to get loose and really sling it around on the Eagles. While Philadelphia's secondary isn't great, the Jets will have a tough time keeping Wilson from panic throws with the Eagles' front-seven causing havoc. I'm also happy to fade New York off of a rare win.
Matt Ryan over 252.5 passing yards
I wrote about the general idea that the Falcons might be live in this game, at least relative to their +400 moneyline payout. However, the key points are how competitive Atlanta has been in recent matchups and Ryan's capability to at least put up yardage and - until the final quarter of Week 2 - avoid interceptions. Let's back him to piece it together in a game where the Falcons know they have no chance to run the football in against the Buccaneers' defense.
Matthew Stafford under 293.5 passing yards
Taking the week off isn't going to help Stafford heal his injuries, which seems problematic if you're expecting above-expectation production from the Rams quarterback at this point. I assume L.A. won't trail by multiple scores like last week, so there should be less need for Stafford to exert himself. Look for the Jaguars to continue allowing teams to keep the ball in front of them and not get beat deep.
Hunter Renfrow over 6.5 receptions
No Darren Waller for the Raiders means that it's first-, second-, and third-and-Renfrow. While his yardage total of 63.5 is an option, too, I'd rather back Renfrow to see the short-yardage targets in a matchup lined at a price that suggests it's going to be a close contest.
Najee Harris over 3.5 receptions
Maybe Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada got as frustrated as Matt in Canada did about the Browns' unwillingness to throw to their running back against the Ravens on Sunday night. Probably not. But we'll bet that if Pittsburgh struggles to run the ball as much as Cleveland did, the club will at least have Ben Roethlisberger dump the ball to Harris and try to get him in space.
Russell Wilson over 224.5 passing yards
We'll conclude the week by bashing our heads against the wall that is the assumption that Wilson can move the ball through the air to find talented targets like DK Metcalf. Our Monday bet crawled over on the game's final pass, and at least as underdogs, there's a possibility the Seahawks trail late - even if I think this matchup is more competitive than the market does.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.