Bills-Titans best bets: Opinions split on Monday Night Football
Now Super Bowl favorites, the Bills will be out for revenge Monday night and hoping to avoid a hangover after a huge win at Arrowhead in Week 5. Here's how we're betting Bills-Titans.
C Jackson Cowart: Bills -6
I'm done betting against this Bills team, which looks like an absolute juggernaut in Year 2 after showing glimpses of that caliber in 2020. Entering Week 6, Buffalo ranked first in DVOA, first in points allowed per play (0.2), and second in points scored per play (0.5), and the Bills' ridiculous plus-108 point differential outpaces the league by a country mile.
This group just showed its dominant form in a road beatdown of the Chiefs, who were held below 21 points for the first time since their Super Bowl loss to the Buccaneers and only the fourth time in the Patrick Mahomes era. Conversely, Josh Allen and Co. scored at least 35 for the fourth straight time and should shred a Titans defense that looked lost in its only two games against competent offenses.
If Tennessee falls behind early, that will create a negative game script for Derrick Henry and force quarterback Ryan Tannehill to attack a Bills defense that leads the NFL with 15 takeaways through just five weeks. However you slice it, this simply isn't a good matchup for the home side.
Alex Moretto: Titans +6
We shouldn't exactly be rushing to bet against the Bills right now, and it's entirely possible this will end terribly, but this is one of my bigger bets of the week on what is a very inflated line and a good sell-high spot on Buffalo in a prime letdown slot.
It's also a nice opportunity to buy low on the Titans, who are being written off thanks to a bad defense and struggling offense. The defense is admittedly not good, but it has shown signs of improvement over the last three weeks. The offense is good, though. Henry remains his dominant self - the Bills haven't seen a running back anywhere close to his level this season - and the passing attack has only struggled because of key injuries and will welcome back A.J. Brown and Julio Jones this week.
I'm nowhere near sold on a Bills defense that's capitalized on an easy schedule and an uncharacteristic performance by the Chiefs' offense - four turnovers, costly penalties, and countless drops. Henry will set the tone as the Titans control the clock, keep their defense and Josh Allen on the sideline, and stay within the number. An outright win is not out of the question.
Matt Russell: Titans +6
We're all really down on the Titans, and I get it - an ugly defeat in Week 1, followed by the indignity of losing to the Jets, will do that. The defense has been disappointing, but its 6.2 yards per play against is tied with the Colts and slightly better than the Ravens and Cowboys - and nobody is wringing their hands about those teams because their offenses are making up for it.
The Titans haven't had that luxury, with Brown and Jones shuffling in and out of the lineup during an adjustment period with a new offensive coordinator. Henry is light years ahead of the running backs the Bills have faced this season, so if Tennessee can get Jones back, it can score with Buffalo.
The Bills are in a tough spot: It's their second straight prime-time game after they looked as good as could be in Kansas City. The Titans have the chance to change the narrative, and this game will be close down the stretch.