Jaguars-Bengals best bets: Can Burrow take Lawrence to school?
After suffering through Panthers-Texans, football fans will be rewarded with this week's thrilling matchup of ... Jaguars-Bengals.
It might be ugly, but you better believe we're betting it. Here's what we like for the latest edition of Thursday Night Football:
C Jackson Cowart: Bengals -7.5
I tend to avoid laying a touchdown on a team unless I know they're good - novel concept, I know - and I'm not there yet with the Bengals. That said, the Jaguars might be the worst team in the league, and that's enough for me to play the favorites here.
Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence has turned the ball over a whopping nine times through three games - more than any NFL team - as his aggressiveness has outpaced the talent around him. Cincinnati's defense made Justin Fields and Ben Roethlisberger look silly in consecutive weeks and should have no trouble baiting the rookie into a handful of ill-advised throws, especially after a short week of preparation.
My biggest preseason concern about the Bengals was their offensive line. But it's surprisingly held up so far this season, posting an above-average pass-block win rate (59%). That's allowed Joe Burrow to sling it downfield, which is what made him so effective at LSU. I don't love laying the big number, but this is a clear mismatch; I'll hold my nose and bet the better side.
Alex Moretto: Over 45
I've miraculously hit three straight prime-time best bets, taking my season record to 7-2. Either the levee is about to break, or we're never going to lose again. Who's to say?
Prime-time overs have been very much a thing this season, and I'm expecting the trend to continue Thursday. Burrow is starting to find his rhythm after missing the final six weeks of last season with a torn ACL. He's thrown five touchdowns over his last five quarters, and the offensive line has been much improved. His connection with former LSU teammate Ja'Marr Chase has been an absolute treat to watch and a catalyst for this offense, which is also getting full value from Joe Mixon.
Though the offense is rapidly improving, it still hasn't put together a full game. That changes this week against a Jaguars defense giving up points in bunches while allowing a hefty 6.1 yards per play. Get Burrow, Mixon, Chase, and Tyler Boyd into your fantasy lineups.
The Bengals have looked terrific defensively, but the unit isn't nearly as stout as it appeared against the Steelers' and Bears' incompetent offenses. Expect a showing much closer to Cincinnati's Week 1 outing against the Vikings, who managed a strong 5.4 yards per play and went two-for-two in the red zone. Despite Urban Meyer's many deficiencies, this Jaguars offense has the talent to do its part to get us over this total.
Matt Russell: Jaguars +7.5
The Jaguars' offense has averaged 5.1 yards per play this season, while the Bengals - amidst the excitement of the Burrow-Chase connection - have been good for 5.3.
The difference between these teams has been on the defensive side, where the Jaguars' average of 6.1 yards per play against is significantly worse than the Bengals' fifth-ranked mark of 4.5. Do the Bengals seem like a top-five defense to you?
As mentioned above, Cincinnati gave up 5.4 yards per play to the Vikings, but easy matchups against the Bears and Steelers massaged its season averages quite nicely.
My rating for the Bengals still has them on the wrong side of league average; as long as the Jaguars continue to show some improvement - which, believe it or not, they have - I can't get on board with a spread above a touchdown.
Urban Meyer, meanwhile, seems to have discovered that James Robinson is on his roster. If he can continue to run the offense through Robinson, he may pull off the upset in his return to Ohio.