NFL Week 7 teasers: How to approach a limited board
They're scared of you. The sportsbooks saw another brutal weekend behind the counter, partially due to favorites cashing teasers and moneylines at a ridiculously high clip.
As it turns out, we didn't even need last week's warning to be careful, with all four +EV sides cashing easily. In fact, the Vikings opened +1.5 and a +7.5 teaser leg but were bet to -2.5, while the Panthers became the viable teaser leg, and that won too!
Week 7 sees fewer options, with six teams on bye and double-digit favorites in three other games.
On a two-team six-point teaser priced at -115, each teaser leg has a price of -270. There are places where that -270 price becomes more valuable than just betting a moneyline or an alternative spread on its own. Let's use the upcoming AFC North tilt between the Bengals and Ravens as an example.
Taking Baltimore down to -0.5 via a teaser is better than both the moneyline and Ravens -1. While that's a small advantage, it allows you to take another game and manipulate that spread in your favor.
Not all teaser legs are created equal. The biggest mistake novice bettors make is teasing through zero - you're wasting valuable price points on a number the game probably won't land on. So how can we maximize the six-point move? How can we get what we're paying for at -270 per leg?
With the three heavy favorites being untouchable, there are only a few good options for how to best use the teaser to create value. Remember, these are not recommendations - this is more about the selection of teams you could tease from a mathematically correct standpoint in the "teaser basket."
The first two options are my favorite type of teaser leg, grabbing over a touchdown in a coin flip game. The next two are better options than just betting the moneyline if you like the favorite and allow you to move those first two clubs to an ideal leg. The last two options are untraditional, but moving the Titans over two scores against the Chiefs defense and the Seahawks into double-digits at home against an offensively challenged Saints outfit is probably profitable long-term.
Fundamentally, take as many legs from the basket as you want that align with your handicap of the game. Which ones do you like?
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.