Week 2 round-robin moneyline parlay: NFC West teams on upset watch
The plan wasn't to start the season by winning every one of these last week, taking all the monies in the process. Maybe we should have started slow to set a more reasonable bar.
With expectations now unfathomably high, I'm unusually nervous writing this, and we're all destined to be disappointed.
How it works
We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to take 1.1 units and use it to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays, and one five-team parlay. If three teams pull the upset, you'll likely double your money. If four teams win, you're connecting on four separate parlays and will be very pleased with the return. If all five teams win? Early retirement.
Who to play
Miami Dolphins +150
I can understand the desire to take the Bills here. They could be a buy-low candidate following a Week 1 loss in which they probably were the better team. The Dolphins escaped Foxborough and could be a candidate to sell high on.
My numbers just can't get to a point where the Bills should be 3-point favorites. The Dolphins have one of the few discernible home-field advantages, playing at home in the September heat and forcing the visiting team to stand on the sunny side of the field. The best I can get to is Buffalo -1, so there's value on the 'dog here.
Indianapolis Colts +170
Sometimes Week 2 spread betting comes down to "Team A looked bad" and "Team B looked good," resulting in a valuable bet on Team A. I'm not high on the Colts this season. As for the Rams, there's a lot of excitement about Matthew Stafford's boost to the offense, but I won't overreact to a home win over the Bears - especially given the frequency with which Chicago moved the ball into Rams territory. I've got Los Angeles just under three points better than the Colts, so a +170 moneyline is worth a look as part of this endeavor.
Carolina Panthers +170
I spent last week trying to talk the world into the Saints over the Packers. This week, I'll be talking the world into the Panthers over the Saints. Such is the universe of NFL betting. New Orleans changes roles from 4-point 'dogs to 3.5-point road favorites, and with their Week 1 performance comes a mathematical overreaction. My ratings have an appropriate price of NO -2, so another +170 leg that should probably be closer to +120 is good enough.
Minnesota Vikings +175
I don't have to tell you why the Cardinals are now 4.5-point favorites. You saw Week 1. But this is too many points - I have it at a fair price of just over -3 - which makes the moneyline valuable at +175. Talk about your buy-low, sell-highs.
Tennessee Titans +200
Another buy-low, sell-high, as you might notice a theme developing here! The Titans looked hideous on Sunday, but Taylor Lewan will have an easier time this week than he did with borderline ninja Chandler Jones. As much as Russell Wilson torched the Colts, Kyler Murray is a bigger headache for defensive game planners, and the Cardinals' defense in 2021 might actually be better than the Seahawks'. The Titans move the ball just as easily as the 'Hawks in this one, and when the music stops at 0:00, maybe the guys from Nashville have the lead.
What to bet
The good news is, after last week, we can lose every single one of these the rest of the season and still be profitable. Though why not try to keep the good fortune going? Here's how the odds shake down this week:
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on twitter @mrussauthentic.
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