Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Our perfect run came to an end in Week 11 with the Vikings as our top pick, but if you looked beyond them - picks two through six were all winners - then congratulations on surviving the fall of another domino.
If that applies to you, let's dive into my Week 12 rankings.
Confidence rankings (CR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks:
|AWAY||HOME (SPREAD)||PICK (CR)|
|Chicago||Green Bay (N/A)||GB (9)|
|LA Chargers||Buffalo (-6)||BUF (8)|
|NY Giants||Cincinnati (+6)||NYG (7)|
|Miami||NY Jets (+6.5)||MIA (7)|
|San Francisco||LA Rams (-7)||LAR (6)|
|New Orleans||Denver (+5.5)||NO (6)|
|Baltimore||Pittsburgh (-4.5)||PIT (5)|
|Cleveland||Jacksonville (+6.5)||CLE (5)|
|Seattle||Philadelphia (+6)||SEA (4)|
|Carolina||Minnesota (-4.5)||MIN (4)|
|Tennessee||Indianapolis (-3.5)||IND (3)|
|Las Vegas||Atlanta (+3)||LV (3)|
|Houston||Detroit (+2.5)||HOU (3)|
|Arizona||New England (+2)||ARI (3)|
|Washington||Dallas (-3)||WAS (2)|
|Kansas City||Tampa Bay (+3.5)||TB (1)|
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
It's hard to imagine quarterback play getting any worse for the Bears, but a Tyler Bray start would take this offense's remarkable incompetency to unimaginable levels. Bray was frustrating in college with Tennessee; put him in Chicago's tepid offense, and there isn't a single redeeming quality.
The Packers turned the ball over five times in Indianapolis - once on downs - and still pushed a very good Colts team to the brink. The only way to really beat Green Bay is to run the ball and sustain long drives - the Bears can't do either. A little extra motivation stemming from a Week 11 loss won't hurt the Packers, either, as Aaron Rodgers and Co. are set to beat up on their NFC North rivals.
Justin Herbert is terrific, so Chargers fans have plenty of reason for optimism going forward. However, none of that will come to fruition until Anthony Lynn is gone. Lynn made a strong case for being the NFL's worst coach while up against his fiercest competitor, Adam Gase, in Week 11, but Herbert's masterclass helped him avoid disaster. But the step-up in class here against a Bills team among the best-coached units in football and coming off a bye is simply too big a hurdle for the inept Lynn to clear.
We also have this nugget from our Bad Line of the Week article: Teams playing the Chargers off their bye week have been 10-0 ATS coming into this year. The Jets made it 11-0 this past Sunday, covering as 10-point underdogs.
This is actually one of my favorite picks this week, and with six weeks still to go in the season, it's acceptable to save one of the above teams for later in favor of a Giants pick in Week 12. Ryan Finley starts for the Bengals following Joe Burrow's gruesome knee injury and has a miserable first test against the Giants' severely underrated defense.
Burrow didn't get nearly enough credit for his ability to evade pressure behind a horrendous offensive line. He wasn't sacked once against Washington on 34 dropbacks, while Finley was sacked four times on 14. In three starts last season, he completed only 47% of his passes, averaged just 158 passing yards, had five turnovers to just two touchdowns, and most importantly, was 0-3. Believe it or not, you should be quite confident in the very competitive and fundamentally sound Giants this week.
The Dolphins certainly fall into the category of well-coached teams as well. Brian Flores' decision to turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick in the fourth quarter against the Broncos speaks to that. He doesn't care about what people will say, he simply cares about winning. A trip to Denver was a trap for this team, but you can rest assured that Flores will have Miami well-prepared for this game. It certainly helps to have Gase on the other sideline, too.
This is the point in the list when doubt begins to creep in. As well as the Rams have been playing, the 49ers are getting healthy coming off their bye, and Kyle Shanahan is something of a wizard when he has a full complement of weapons at his disposal. This is a must-win for San Francisco to remain in the playoff hunt, and with two weeks to prepare for a Rams team coming off a short week, there's plenty of upset potential this weekend in LA.
The Taysom Hill hate has become a bit much. He persevered through countless season-ending injuries in college to finally make his first start - and a winning one at that - this past weekend. It's at the very least a nice story. But he's still a one-trick pony. All he knows is the run-pass option, and if his first read isn't there, he's scrambling. Trusting him in his first road start and in the elements isn't exactly wise, even against the Broncos' below-average defense. I'm staying away here.
To be clear, the Steelers didn't beat the Ravens in their first meeting. Baltimore beat Baltimore. I had this circled as a spot to buy in on John Harbaugh's team in a revenge game, but there's no chance of that happening anymore. The Ravens continue to struggle on both sides of the ball, and now COVID-19 has left them shorthanded in the backfield. This is a terrible time to be visiting Pittsburgh.
The Browns are playing their best defensive football of the season, and the timing is perfect given Baker Mayfield's struggles. The weather has played a big part, but Mayfield is completing just over half of his passes across the last three weeks, averaging only 153 yards through the air and last throwing a touchdown pass on Oct. 25. With the Titans on deck next week, this is a bit of a trap game for Cleveland against the Jaguars, who've been competitive in spurts with Jake Luton under center.
The Eagles have looked pathetic in recent weeks, but we've seen this before, only for them to stun a formidable foe during prime time. Remember the Rams game in 2018? At the very least, the Eagles have the weapons to get right, in a sense, against the Seahawks' hapless defense. Exercise caution here.
If there's one thing I've learned in my 25-plus years of Vikings fandom, it's that they will win this weekend. After essentially squandering their playoff chances against the Cowboys, this is where they begin the push to 9-7, missing the postseason and securing a draft pick in the mid-to-high teens. The Panthers are an excellently coached team, but this is a good sell-high spot coming off a win over the Lions, who have no fight left under Matt Patricia.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.